BIG polling news out today with the front page of the NY Times highlighting some of the challenges facing Kamala Harris and the Democrats with the most coveted swing voters in 2024: Latinos.
Nate Cohn offers a good overview in a related article that suggests there are five key takeaways:
1. Latinos aren’t hearing the racist dog whistles the same way everyone else is;
Trump is more “fun” and viewed more as an entertainer than a substantive politician and that works in an era when Latino voters no longer believe either party is doing anything to deliver for them in their real lives;
It’s the economy, stupid. Only 20% of Latino voters think the economy is “good” or “excellent”
The end of Hope and Change - Only 46% of Latinos believe Democrats keep their promises. Democrats fared poorly on questions like whether the party can “fix problems facing people like me”, even as they excel on questions like they “understand the problems people like me face”.
Trump has been normalized. 38% of Latino voters are under the age of 30 - all they’ve known is the Trump era. Politics is a circus to many of us but not to voters under thirty who don’t remember any time before the circus.
All of this analysis, polling data and trend line point to everything I wrote in “The Latino Century”. We are witnessing the emergence of a new type of non-white voter, a voter who is much more populist than conservative and one who has lost most its belief in the Democratic party specifically and the two parties generally.
Caught between a party they don’t believe can or will make the changes to improve their lives and another that they see more as entertaining than hostile - they’re increasingly choosing bread and circus.
The reckoning for both parties is coming.
NYT Hispanic Poll - The Struggle Is Real