Kamala Harris is still slightly favored to win this election and I see no evidence that that will change as we head into the last weeks of the election. But Trump can still win, and if he does, it’s really hard to imagine a scenario where he does without gaining even more ground with Latino voters.
Listen to that again: If Trump wins it will be because he did so with a higher level of Latino support. 2024 may be the third Presidential election in a row where Democrats lost Latino voters to him.
The Democrats Latino voter problem is real. I’m not the only one saying this. You owe it to yourself to read Ruy Texiera’s articles on his Substack The Liberal Patriot on the Democrat’s challenges with working-class voters in his recent article How Trump Wins but more importantly visit the site and read this one The Democrats Hispanic Voter Problem Deepens
There’s not a whole lot of discussion about this - certainly not as much as we should be hearing but the problem is real. The same Latino Democratic consultants who denied the slippage was happening in 2016 and 2020 are repeating the same thing and the only question now is will they still be listened to?
So how can Harris win? Well, it’s the same way she’s remaining so competitive in the national surveys and battleground polls - she’s opening up the gender gap to historic levels. Harris has to win a historic share of college-educated white women and that includes a larger share of Republican white women. Unfortunately, she also needs to do better with non-college-educated white women who have remained stubbornly at high levels for Trump.
So can she win? Absolutely! Even if Latinos keep drifting towards Trump? Yes!
How can Latinos vote for someone who doesn’t respect them and openly works against their interest and their rights?
Well once you explain to me why white women are doing so at higher levels than Latinos then I’ll answer your question….but you go first.
MikeDrop - How Harris Can Win If Latino Voters Keep Slipping Away