The media and pundits aren't talking about it much, but if Trump wins it will be because he wins an even greater share of Latino voters - and the polling shows he is. How can Harris win without them?
Mike thanks for all of this. as always very useful.
Just wanted to talk about the Carl Allen thread you mentioned on twitter. He seemed to be pointing out that with Kamala getting quite a bit closer to the magic number of 50% in many of the swing states than Trump, and with fewer undecideds, her advantage may be a bit better than some are stating. That thread seems to be in line with your threads about getting to 50% that you came out with a couple of weeks ago. Is that why you referred us to that thread?
Yes!! I’ll do a video on that Thread. It’s very important and is exactly in-line with what I was saying about the 50% threshold. Trump has a very hard ceiling and that’s good news. Can he break out of it? Yes but he hasn’t in 8 years. I think that’s a very important way to analyze the race
Thanks Mike, I just wanted to be sure I was on the right track. It's very gratifying that you got back to me so fast and affirmed my understanding of the thread and that the same logic and trump's ceiling are applying to the swing states as well, for the most part.
Just wanted to add that particularly in NC and PA, Simon Rosenberg is pointing out they are flooding the zone with pro-republican pollsters recently. I agree with you that generally the dems. are doing the same in certain cases especially around the latino vote, but I think there is a case that the polls in particularly NC and PA are underestimating Harris's current advantage.
Also wanted to congratulate Kamala for the thoroughness of her campaign. she is going after every subgroup, in a very coherent and aggressive way.... her appeal to repubs. to business people to young and black people, the moves to stem the bleeding with Latinos, even efforts at mormons and devout Christians..... you are so right on this too. People need to back off on the advice and let her do her thing, for the most part she is doing a great job.
Peeling off white women is all about making them understand that, as the bumper sticker says, their whiteness will not protect them from what the patriarchy has in store for them.
I was out knocking doors for the Harris/Walz campaign in Salem, Wisconsin. I spoke to two voters who were undecided but very open to Harris. One in particular was very clear that she hated extremism and the most sane candidate was going to get her vote.
Thanks Mike for being HONEST. I love hearing good news but I love more being told the truth. Harris is doing what she needs to do, whilst recognising there are long term issues with Latino men (born in USA) that needs a longer term approach…and they need to SEE her talk become reality.
Reassurance is only really reassuring if it comes from the guy you know won't just tell you what you want to hear. If there's still a reasonable chance, that's GREAT compared to where we were at a few of months ago.
I realize these shifts in position constitute a "battlefield conversion" for most of the Democratic Party, and you can see that in the difficulty that so many speakers have in letting go of the old talking points. Nonetheless, I do get the feeling that Harris's current positions are ones she's more comfortable with than the leftward tack she took in 2020. I think that's especially true of her approach to the economy.
I'm basing this partly on how convincing she sounds when she's talking about these issues and partly on her background, e.g., in this article in yesterday's New York Times on Harris's relationship with her father, his life and work, and how he may have influenced her. (This gift link should be unpaywalled.)
That 'How Trump Wins' pissed me off in all the 5 times that I read it. Because I think it's wrong. Almost feels like Ruy has moved from 'demography is destiny' to working class is destiny for Trump or Republicans.
Sure Trumps margins with white working class in the polls is the same as 2020 BUT remains to be seen if those voters still actually go to vote for him this time. Because the answer for this category to the question 'How likely you are to vote' is only about 60-65% for 'certain to
vote' and this percentage was much higher in 2020.
Secondly Harris is outright winning or significantly over-perfoming with white college in all the battleground states and this category of voters is a more reliable voter category, is usually more likely to vote and is reporting higher 'certain to vote' percetage this year than 2020.
Thirdly Harris is getting that 6-8% of Republicans that Biden got in all the bg states. I also suspect that in some states she will be doing even better with this category than polls currently suggest. It's a fair assumption that Rep in AZ or NC or others the senate-presidential ticket splitting, at least for this category won't be as large as polls currently suggest. Also it's a bit of a mess in terms of the sample composition for various polls re party ID or party registration or both. Especially given what's happened with the Independents category since 2021.
I fully believe that Trump will find new juice to squeeze out of the white non-college category (especially in the south) and that Harris margins with Latino won't improve sufficiently in time for the election BUT I also don't believe in this forever Trump omnipotence.
Ultimately it's about who votes not just about who tells a pollsters that they will vote for Trump. There are conflicting reports about the GOTV operation of the Trump campaign but only good reports about the Harris GOTV.
Thanks Mike! One point I’ve heard analysts make is that even if Harris’s percentage of Latino voters declines compared to Biden’s in 2020, the overall Latino electorate has grown so much that her net advantage in Latino votes over Trump might not decline or might even grow—in other words, a smaller proportion of a much bigger pie still gives her a piece big enough to win AZ, NV, etc. What’s your take on that?
Good question! This is what I call “Tge The bigger pie theory”. It’s interesting because it’s essentially acknowledgement by Democrats that they are losing Latino voters and because they’re having difficulty understanding it they’re essentially saying ‘it’s not that bad.’
There is some truth to this. It is correct. You can get more actual votes if the pie gets bigger even though you’re losing an increasing share BUT this only works if you’re losing a smaller share than the actual growth AND all other voting groups stay the same.
Neither of those seem to be happening . Or better stated one the first point of Latinos shifted 8 points in 2020 and grew by 1-2 points as the share of all voters…well that’s not good at all and upends this theory.
More importantly if Democrats also lose working class voters of all ethnicities (as they are) you need greater margins to make up for those losses.
It’s disingenuous to argue raw votes when it benefits you and percentages when it benefits you but not acknowledge that the needed margins of victory are working against you
If polling showing Latinos at 40% are accurate in NV and AZ are accurate then Trump wins. The pie hasn’t grown big enough to offset that.
Good news is I don’t see Trump getting 40% in either state as I said in the video. But I do believe he’s moving up and rather than focus on spinning math I’d prefer to see these ‘strategists’ focused on stopping the loss of Latino voters.
Mike thanks for all of this. as always very useful.
Just wanted to talk about the Carl Allen thread you mentioned on twitter. He seemed to be pointing out that with Kamala getting quite a bit closer to the magic number of 50% in many of the swing states than Trump, and with fewer undecideds, her advantage may be a bit better than some are stating. That thread seems to be in line with your threads about getting to 50% that you came out with a couple of weeks ago. Is that why you referred us to that thread?
Yes!! I’ll do a video on that Thread. It’s very important and is exactly in-line with what I was saying about the 50% threshold. Trump has a very hard ceiling and that’s good news. Can he break out of it? Yes but he hasn’t in 8 years. I think that’s a very important way to analyze the race
Great observation Harvey!
Thanks Mike, I just wanted to be sure I was on the right track. It's very gratifying that you got back to me so fast and affirmed my understanding of the thread and that the same logic and trump's ceiling are applying to the swing states as well, for the most part.
Just wanted to add that particularly in NC and PA, Simon Rosenberg is pointing out they are flooding the zone with pro-republican pollsters recently. I agree with you that generally the dems. are doing the same in certain cases especially around the latino vote, but I think there is a case that the polls in particularly NC and PA are underestimating Harris's current advantage.
Also wanted to congratulate Kamala for the thoroughness of her campaign. she is going after every subgroup, in a very coherent and aggressive way.... her appeal to repubs. to business people to young and black people, the moves to stem the bleeding with Latinos, even efforts at mormons and devout Christians..... you are so right on this too. People need to back off on the advice and let her do her thing, for the most part she is doing a great job.
Peeling off white women is all about making them understand that, as the bumper sticker says, their whiteness will not protect them from what the patriarchy has in store for them.
I was out knocking doors for the Harris/Walz campaign in Salem, Wisconsin. I spoke to two voters who were undecided but very open to Harris. One in particular was very clear that she hated extremism and the most sane candidate was going to get her vote.
Thanks for knocking on doors!
Thanks Mike for being HONEST. I love hearing good news but I love more being told the truth. Harris is doing what she needs to do, whilst recognising there are long term issues with Latino men (born in USA) that needs a longer term approach…and they need to SEE her talk become reality.
White woman here & I can’t tell you why white women vote for Trump.
I can think of a lot of possible explanations but I can never really wrap my head around it either.
white woman here. Disliked the other guy from
The start
I never saw Apprentice and never lived east of Rockies
Felt there was overwhelming sleeve factor with him
Reassurance is only really reassuring if it comes from the guy you know won't just tell you what you want to hear. If there's still a reasonable chance, that's GREAT compared to where we were at a few of months ago.
I realize these shifts in position constitute a "battlefield conversion" for most of the Democratic Party, and you can see that in the difficulty that so many speakers have in letting go of the old talking points. Nonetheless, I do get the feeling that Harris's current positions are ones she's more comfortable with than the leftward tack she took in 2020. I think that's especially true of her approach to the economy.
I'm basing this partly on how convincing she sounds when she's talking about these issues and partly on her background, e.g., in this article in yesterday's New York Times on Harris's relationship with her father, his life and work, and how he may have influenced her. (This gift link should be unpaywalled.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/04/us/politics/kamala-harris-father.html?unlocked_article_code=1.P04.FDQO.pViS1My5kUfZ&smid=url-share
What do you think, Mike? Is this real or am I just reacting to what a skilled politician and campaign want me to see? (Or some of both.)
Thank you for keeping it real.
That 'How Trump Wins' pissed me off in all the 5 times that I read it. Because I think it's wrong. Almost feels like Ruy has moved from 'demography is destiny' to working class is destiny for Trump or Republicans.
Sure Trumps margins with white working class in the polls is the same as 2020 BUT remains to be seen if those voters still actually go to vote for him this time. Because the answer for this category to the question 'How likely you are to vote' is only about 60-65% for 'certain to
vote' and this percentage was much higher in 2020.
Secondly Harris is outright winning or significantly over-perfoming with white college in all the battleground states and this category of voters is a more reliable voter category, is usually more likely to vote and is reporting higher 'certain to vote' percetage this year than 2020.
Thirdly Harris is getting that 6-8% of Republicans that Biden got in all the bg states. I also suspect that in some states she will be doing even better with this category than polls currently suggest. It's a fair assumption that Rep in AZ or NC or others the senate-presidential ticket splitting, at least for this category won't be as large as polls currently suggest. Also it's a bit of a mess in terms of the sample composition for various polls re party ID or party registration or both. Especially given what's happened with the Independents category since 2021.
I fully believe that Trump will find new juice to squeeze out of the white non-college category (especially in the south) and that Harris margins with Latino won't improve sufficiently in time for the election BUT I also don't believe in this forever Trump omnipotence.
Ultimately it's about who votes not just about who tells a pollsters that they will vote for Trump. There are conflicting reports about the GOTV operation of the Trump campaign but only good reports about the Harris GOTV.
We will see
Thanks Mike! One point I’ve heard analysts make is that even if Harris’s percentage of Latino voters declines compared to Biden’s in 2020, the overall Latino electorate has grown so much that her net advantage in Latino votes over Trump might not decline or might even grow—in other words, a smaller proportion of a much bigger pie still gives her a piece big enough to win AZ, NV, etc. What’s your take on that?
Good question! This is what I call “Tge The bigger pie theory”. It’s interesting because it’s essentially acknowledgement by Democrats that they are losing Latino voters and because they’re having difficulty understanding it they’re essentially saying ‘it’s not that bad.’
There is some truth to this. It is correct. You can get more actual votes if the pie gets bigger even though you’re losing an increasing share BUT this only works if you’re losing a smaller share than the actual growth AND all other voting groups stay the same.
Neither of those seem to be happening . Or better stated one the first point of Latinos shifted 8 points in 2020 and grew by 1-2 points as the share of all voters…well that’s not good at all and upends this theory.
More importantly if Democrats also lose working class voters of all ethnicities (as they are) you need greater margins to make up for those losses.
It’s disingenuous to argue raw votes when it benefits you and percentages when it benefits you but not acknowledge that the needed margins of victory are working against you
If polling showing Latinos at 40% are accurate in NV and AZ are accurate then Trump wins. The pie hasn’t grown big enough to offset that.
Good news is I don’t see Trump getting 40% in either state as I said in the video. But I do believe he’s moving up and rather than focus on spinning math I’d prefer to see these ‘strategists’ focused on stopping the loss of Latino voters.
I think she will win NV in the end
They think he’s “strong.”