The only thing more famous in Iowa politics than the State Fair, deep-fried Snickers bars, and the butter sculptures, is Ann Selzer the pollster who does the Des Moines Register poll. Her uncanny ability to call races from varied fields of numerous candidates in caucuses is the stuff of legend.
Today, she released a poll showing Kamala Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa. Earth-shaking numbers for conservative evangelical Iowa! This is the state that went for Trump in 2016 by 8 points, and for Trump again in 2020 by 9 points….so what’s going on?
Well, for one, the state recently passed some very restrictive bans on abortion procedures and nearly all of the massive movement is coming from….women! Not shocking to most I know, but it might be a bit more surprising when you consider that most of that shift came from Republican and Independent women.
In fact, the poll showed that Trump is only getting 89% of the Republican vote. He’s losing 11% of Republicans in one of the most conservative evangelical states in the country, and that’s a terrible sign no matter how you slice it.
In fact, the whole poll is terrible news for the Trump world. Even if you disagree with the poll’s accuracy you can’t dismiss the size of this shift - you just can’t. We may debate how much of a shift there is, but you can’t deny it’s happening, and that’s the biggest news coming out of Iowa today.
So what does this mean for the battle ground states? Well, I explore this in great detail here with some analysis you’re not likely to find anywhere else, but here’s a spoiler…one of the reasons that this shift is likely happening is because Iowa is also one of the most monolithically white states in the country. As Amy Walter of the Cook report noted on X, The Cook Report has also seen these shifts in Nebraska, Ohio, and even Kansas….and what do all of those states have in common?
Well, for one thing, they’re not very diverse, and as we’ve discussed, non-white voters are more motivated by economic issues than having the luxury of focusing on cultural issues, (yes I chose that word specifically). This brings into focus one of the main tensions in the Democratic coalition that needs to be explored after the election.
Bottom line: This is great news for Harris. Not good, great. If only for setting the narrative that Harris is picking up steam and closing strong, but in truth, it’s far more significant than that. She’s moving into a strong position with the key demographic she needs to win this race - white women.
MikeDrop - The Selzer Poll