The famed pollster Ann Selzer rocked the campaign news cycle with huge news - a 3 point lead for Kamala Harris in Iowa. So what's going on? Lets discuss shall we?
Mike - thanks so much for this and also informing us on the latino demographic. It is so important. Working in Latin America years ago exposed me some - but my spanish is so-so and I realize I'm not the right person to engage. Also very important to engage persuasively with non-college grads (70% of population). Did a voter ethnographic analysis in North Carolina the other year - white Dems had been voting republican for years, before finally dropping out of the democratic party. In the rural counties especially. Dems have stunk up the field in this segment after Bill Clinton and need to do better
Fascinating analysis Mike. As a white, college educated woman I agree that abortion and democracy can’t be the only issue going forward for Dems. I think Harris really gets this though. What she’ll be able to do if the Dems can’t keep the Senate bothers me more.
I would suggest, based on focus groups I have seen, that many of the younger members of some non-white groups are not getting wind of how bad Trump would be for the economy. There is still an association of him with The Apprentice which makes them think he is a great businessman. Older voters may have had longer to conclude he is not. Also that younger age group may not even have been politically aware when Trump ran in 2015/16, and were in COVID shutdown for the last two years of his term. I think that matters. Disinformation from Trump, from his debate with Biden—really badly handled—and Fox may have constituted much of what they heard.
Such a great point! It's hard to understand that young people are living in a different world.
Nonetheless, I did see that the Access Hollywood tape has been circulating on TikTok: newly shocking to young voters whose parents may have protected them from seeing it in 2016, and who have less tolerance for that kind of "locker room" talk 😸
Sarah Longwell is emphasizing is that Harris seems to be gaining support among older working class white women, in addition to the classic Lincoln Project target group of college-educated Republican women. Both these shifts are significant because there are more women than men and they tend to vote at higher rates.
I'm glad that Harris seems to be focused on economic issues because, as you point out, the Democratic Party has to address the real concerns of everyone in its coalition in order to survive.
I'm still disgusted over how quickly during the Pandemic white people suddenly stopped caring about front-line workers as soon as it became clear that deaths were disproportionately among African-Americans, Latinos, and the elderly. 😾
And thanks again, Mike, for always telling us straight what is going on. I read widely, which can be valuable, but it's easy to get caught up in the hype. I always come back here for a reality check, the deeper perspective, and the historical context you present.
I've had a suspicion for a while now that the polls showing this is a toss up election are missing something. The motivation of women to get out and vote seems to be overlooked. I really think women are going to save this country from another nightmare four years of Trump.
This is really insightful. I’ve said it a million times, Democrat’s obsession with identity politics has done almost the exact opposite of what it was supposed to do. Our party’s becoming whiter and Republicans are picking up more working class voters across all identities. White progressives can use the terms marginalized communities and check your privilege all they want but until the Democratic Party consistently speaks to the economic concerns impacting all Americans regardless of identity. It’s going to continue morphing into a party of college educated upper middle class white folks trapped in their echo chamber.
Harris has done a great job sticking to a working class message. I believe that has also played a big role in helping her to slow down the bleeding of working class voters and even win over some Republican ones.
On the ground in Wisconsin yesterday, we had more volunteers than they had turf to hand out. We had to wait in line to get a precinct to knock doors in. I’m realistic about how close the race will be and hopeful all these signs are pointing to Harris victory.
Mike, this poll in 2016 was the shocker that presaged trumps victory because the presumption was that Iowa was very similar demographically to the Blue wall states. therefore it presaged over performance by trump there, and really was a major election changer 3 days before the vote. Now I get that there are more non whites in the blue wall states than say in Iowa, but its not like he is losing with them...obviously you feel there is slippage with Latinos but if Harris can do anything like this with white woman surely at least the blue wall is in pretty good/great shape???
Now that is what I call a two’fer! Not only has Mike given us all reason to sleep better, but he’s done this on a night where most of us will have an extra hour to sleep! Muchos gracias, Mike!! 🙏
Thanks Mike ! You’re the best ! I’m a new subscriber to your MikeDrop podcast - love your insight especially via video !
Thanks Cat! Welcome to our community. So glad you’re here
Thanks, Mike. Looking forward to your take on the Siena poll tomorrow!
Mike - thanks so much for this and also informing us on the latino demographic. It is so important. Working in Latin America years ago exposed me some - but my spanish is so-so and I realize I'm not the right person to engage. Also very important to engage persuasively with non-college grads (70% of population). Did a voter ethnographic analysis in North Carolina the other year - white Dems had been voting republican for years, before finally dropping out of the democratic party. In the rural counties especially. Dems have stunk up the field in this segment after Bill Clinton and need to do better
Absolutely love following you Mike! you are the best!
Thank you 🙏🏼
Fascinating analysis Mike. As a white, college educated woman I agree that abortion and democracy can’t be the only issue going forward for Dems. I think Harris really gets this though. What she’ll be able to do if the Dems can’t keep the Senate bothers me more.
I would suggest, based on focus groups I have seen, that many of the younger members of some non-white groups are not getting wind of how bad Trump would be for the economy. There is still an association of him with The Apprentice which makes them think he is a great businessman. Older voters may have had longer to conclude he is not. Also that younger age group may not even have been politically aware when Trump ran in 2015/16, and were in COVID shutdown for the last two years of his term. I think that matters. Disinformation from Trump, from his debate with Biden—really badly handled—and Fox may have constituted much of what they heard.
Such a great point! It's hard to understand that young people are living in a different world.
Nonetheless, I did see that the Access Hollywood tape has been circulating on TikTok: newly shocking to young voters whose parents may have protected them from seeing it in 2016, and who have less tolerance for that kind of "locker room" talk 😸
Sarah Longwell is emphasizing is that Harris seems to be gaining support among older working class white women, in addition to the classic Lincoln Project target group of college-educated Republican women. Both these shifts are significant because there are more women than men and they tend to vote at higher rates.
I'm glad that Harris seems to be focused on economic issues because, as you point out, the Democratic Party has to address the real concerns of everyone in its coalition in order to survive.
I'm still disgusted over how quickly during the Pandemic white people suddenly stopped caring about front-line workers as soon as it became clear that deaths were disproportionately among African-Americans, Latinos, and the elderly. 😾
And thanks again, Mike, for always telling us straight what is going on. I read widely, which can be valuable, but it's easy to get caught up in the hype. I always come back here for a reality check, the deeper perspective, and the historical context you present.
I've had a suspicion for a while now that the polls showing this is a toss up election are missing something. The motivation of women to get out and vote seems to be overlooked. I really think women are going to save this country from another nightmare four years of Trump.
This is really insightful. I’ve said it a million times, Democrat’s obsession with identity politics has done almost the exact opposite of what it was supposed to do. Our party’s becoming whiter and Republicans are picking up more working class voters across all identities. White progressives can use the terms marginalized communities and check your privilege all they want but until the Democratic Party consistently speaks to the economic concerns impacting all Americans regardless of identity. It’s going to continue morphing into a party of college educated upper middle class white folks trapped in their echo chamber.
Harris has done a great job sticking to a working class message. I believe that has also played a big role in helping her to slow down the bleeding of working class voters and even win over some Republican ones.
On the ground in Wisconsin yesterday, we had more volunteers than they had turf to hand out. We had to wait in line to get a precinct to knock doors in. I’m realistic about how close the race will be and hopeful all these signs are pointing to Harris victory.
Peter - thank you for being out on the front lines volunteering!
Mike, this poll in 2016 was the shocker that presaged trumps victory because the presumption was that Iowa was very similar demographically to the Blue wall states. therefore it presaged over performance by trump there, and really was a major election changer 3 days before the vote. Now I get that there are more non whites in the blue wall states than say in Iowa, but its not like he is losing with them...obviously you feel there is slippage with Latinos but if Harris can do anything like this with white woman surely at least the blue wall is in pretty good/great shape???
Now that is what I call a two’fer! Not only has Mike given us all reason to sleep better, but he’s done this on a night where most of us will have an extra hour to sleep! Muchos gracias, Mike!! 🙏
Thank you for being honest in your perspective
Wonder if most days you feel like the Substack Parish Priest telling us what we need to hear and do to repent.
Excellent, as always. You make such a difference for Nervous Nellies like me.
Great point about the coalition breaking down because it was focused only on one issue.
Or the potential of that occurring.
Thanks for this. ❤️
Mike, you may be thinking of Christopher Bouzy, the head of Spoutible