The NYTimes/Siena poll and the Texas Hispanic Policy Institute released polling data today that shows Harris slipping with Latinos. What does it mean and can it be fixed?
Do you think it could help Harris if she started going on podcasts like Joe Rogan and trying to introduce herself to new voters that way? If there are any usually non-political podcasts with a following that are listened to primarily by latinos, would it help her to sit with those podcasters for interviews? I am thinking if she hits the podcast/local interview markets hard, she could start pushing numbers and reaching people who may not be hearing her message.
That is where my head is at. I just think that if people actually get to know her and what she’s about even a little bit. She’ll give them the motivation they need to vote for her. She needs to just get herself out there through every avenue to break through the echo chambers everybody is insulated in during the social media age. I think her messaging is spot on and I also think it’s failing to reach millions of people.
I just don’t know what else she could do to reach people. There’s gotta be a way to get people to see her messaging that are not seeing it. Again, I don’t think it’s discussed enough just how thick people’s echo chambers have become. It’s hard to reach people if the algorithms of social media are controlling what they’re seeing.
On a separate note, Mike, how significant do you see the shinanigans in Georgia (hand-count ballots) impacting the electoral count process and the ensuing chaos of uncertainty? I know it's a "battleground state," but I don't believe Harris has that in her “must-win" states to get to 270. Is it possible that Georgia is not relevant in determining the next president or do we have another possible "hanging-chad" situation?
I'm a new follower, so this may be answered elsewhere - but do you think her targeted messaging on economy, crime, and border is reaching the intended audiences? i.e., what do you see being her contact strategy for getting this message where it needs to go?
If you split hispanic voters across all the other non-racial categories (gender, education, etc.) do you find that they split pretty much the same way white voters do? Are they just converging to the American generic "white people"? Maybe there's no special message for them apart from what a campaign might use to target the generic white person. If this comes off as sounding racist toward hispanics, I apologize, do not mean it that way. I just wonder if this is a sign that hispanics are assimilating.
Hw - messaging not reaching the low-propensity males unless we figure out what sources they follow. Not major TV network news or NYTimes! Another commenter suggests going on Rogan. Maybe Howard Stern? Probably shows my age 😊
Speaking via non-traditional media maybe worthwhile for Harris & surrogates. Would love Walz on sports talk shows. Try to reach people where they are.
Makes sense. Follow up questions: (a) Would it be fair to say that for male non-college educated voters the biggest issue is the economy? (b) Given that most economic metrics (GDP, employment, stock market, wage growth) historically favor D administrations, how to combat the perception among these voters that Rs are better on the economy?
No it’s more personal. It’s not GDP or stock market indexes. It’s which party is protecting my job from foreign competition. Which party is trying to take away my job with environmental regulations. That sorta thing
Right. So, as ever, the Ds' problem is the story they have to tell about the economy is either more complicated ('Here's how these taxes/regulations impact your life for the better.') or more negative ('Here's how we're going to stop the very wealthy/big corporations from impacting your life for the worse.')
Nope
Do you think it could help Harris if she started going on podcasts like Joe Rogan and trying to introduce herself to new voters that way? If there are any usually non-political podcasts with a following that are listened to primarily by latinos, would it help her to sit with those podcasters for interviews? I am thinking if she hits the podcast/local interview markets hard, she could start pushing numbers and reaching people who may not be hearing her message.
Yes! She should start with The Latino Vote podcast with me and Chuck Rocha!
Agreed.
I agree with this - she needs to do things that at least slow down the bleed with male independent voters.
That is where my head is at. I just think that if people actually get to know her and what she’s about even a little bit. She’ll give them the motivation they need to vote for her. She needs to just get herself out there through every avenue to break through the echo chambers everybody is insulated in during the social media age. I think her messaging is spot on and I also think it’s failing to reach millions of people.
The good news is that we can see that it *is* working - when people get to know her they get off the fence.
I just don’t know what else she could do to reach people. There’s gotta be a way to get people to see her messaging that are not seeing it. Again, I don’t think it’s discussed enough just how thick people’s echo chambers have become. It’s hard to reach people if the algorithms of social media are controlling what they’re seeing.
On a separate note, Mike, how significant do you see the shinanigans in Georgia (hand-count ballots) impacting the electoral count process and the ensuing chaos of uncertainty? I know it's a "battleground state," but I don't believe Harris has that in her “must-win" states to get to 270. Is it possible that Georgia is not relevant in determining the next president or do we have another possible "hanging-chad" situation?
There’s an excellent piece on exactly this question in Lawfare. Though legally pretty nerdish, it’s clearly written. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/will-georgia's-new-election-rules-allow-trump-to-steal-the-presidency
I'm a new follower, so this may be answered elsewhere - but do you think her targeted messaging on economy, crime, and border is reaching the intended audiences? i.e., what do you see being her contact strategy for getting this message where it needs to go?
Yes it’s just going to take time to break through
If you split hispanic voters across all the other non-racial categories (gender, education, etc.) do you find that they split pretty much the same way white voters do? Are they just converging to the American generic "white people"? Maybe there's no special message for them apart from what a campaign might use to target the generic white person. If this comes off as sounding racist toward hispanics, I apologize, do not mean it that way. I just wonder if this is a sign that hispanics are assimilating.
No this is a great question. In some ways it’s a very similar assimilative pattern in others there are stark differences.
Hate to keep hounding it but this is a lot of what my book is about
I give up.
We're told, repeatedly, that Harris needs to focus on 3 areas to gain Latino support: economic relief, tough on crime, strong borders.
Harris has constantly spoken about these 3 issues, and Latinos aren't interested.
Clearly, these 3 issues are not the motivating factor.
I understand your explanation of low-propensity young males dazzled by the faux machismo of Trump, but I give up.
This country seems determined to gallop into autocracy.
She’s been doing it for what? Six weeks? She’s trying to cut through ten years of bad branding. Giver her a break
I'm not blaming Harris...I blame the voters who support Trump and Trumpism.
They don't care about messaging, policies, character, national security... they want to burn it all down.
Hw - messaging not reaching the low-propensity males unless we figure out what sources they follow. Not major TV network news or NYTimes! Another commenter suggests going on Rogan. Maybe Howard Stern? Probably shows my age 😊
Speaking via non-traditional media maybe worthwhile for Harris & surrogates. Would love Walz on sports talk shows. Try to reach people where they are.
I have a question that’s off-topic but you’re the best person to ask. Does Dan Osborn stand a chance in NE?
Do you still foresee the same trajectory you’ve mentioned for this race?
Hey Mike. Curious about (a) how Hispanic Trump/Harris support breaks out for men and women; (b) what issues are important for each group.
Great question! Check out white-non college educated voters. I’m guessing they’re very similar
Makes sense. Follow up questions: (a) Would it be fair to say that for male non-college educated voters the biggest issue is the economy? (b) Given that most economic metrics (GDP, employment, stock market, wage growth) historically favor D administrations, how to combat the perception among these voters that Rs are better on the economy?
No it’s more personal. It’s not GDP or stock market indexes. It’s which party is protecting my job from foreign competition. Which party is trying to take away my job with environmental regulations. That sorta thing
Right. So, as ever, the Ds' problem is the story they have to tell about the economy is either more complicated ('Here's how these taxes/regulations impact your life for the better.') or more negative ('Here's how we're going to stop the very wealthy/big corporations from impacting your life for the worse.')
Senate and House races -- any that you would recommend sending a few dollars to at this point?
Will Rollins, CA House race.
hopefully it's a bad poll sample i've heard negative stuff about the Times Sienna methodology
its not just this poll guys.