The Polls are Back

NEW POLLING: The first round of polling in the Trump administration are in, and the findings are not good.

AP Photo/Ben Curtis

While we’re only a couple of weeks into the new administration, the blitzkrieg of executive orders and the “shock and awe”’ strategy employed by the Trump team appears to have had its intended effect: overwhelming the voices of opposition.

But is it helping the new administration, or hurting it?

The sheer number of executive orders was clearly designed to signify a changing culture in Washington D.C. A “new sheriff in town” attitude meant to demonstrate the resolve of Trump 2.0 against domestic political enemies (looking at you California), the “Deep State” (looking at you federal bureaucracy), and even our allies (looking at you, Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Greenland, Colombia, NATO….).

However, blitzkrieg on the battlefield is not the same as blitzkrieg in the court of public opinion. At least that’s what the first round of polling from the administration’s earliest days seems to suggest. A slew of highly contentious and unpopular appointees, releasing January 6th insurrectionists, dozens of divisive executive orders, and a messy communications rollout have all created an environment of chaos – one that might give Democrats an opening.

According to FiveThirtyEight, President Donald Trump holds a 49.4% approval rating after the first week of his second term in office.

The site tabulated 11 polls conducted since Trump took office on January 20, which show that an estimated 43% of Americans disapprove of his job performance as of Thursday, January 28. His net approval rating of +7 (approval minus disapproval) is the second-lowest of any newly elected president since World War II – second only to his first term in 2017 when he had a 44.6% approval rating and a 41.4% disapproval rating (+3.2% net approval).

These are bad numbers. Really bad. Yes, Trump has a net positive approval rating, but historically, a newly elected president should enjoy a honeymoon period with a net approval rating in the +20 range.

Let’s take a closer look.

According to NBC, The Wall Street Journal found just 38% of registered voters backed blanket pardons for all January 6 defendants, while 57% opposed them. Comparatively, 43% said they’d back pardons for all except those convicted of assaulting police officers, while 54% opposed that idea as well. (Trump ended up pardoning virtually all who faced federal charges, including those convicted of violent offenses. A handful of others convicted on conspiracy charges got their sentences commuted.)

On immigration enforcement, there appears to be a baseline or strong plurality of support for Trump’s pledge to enact widespread deportations. The Wall Street Journal found that 52% of registered voters favored a call to “detain and deport millions of undocumented immigrants,” while 45% opposed it. Meanwhile, 55% of adults in a New York Times/Ipsos poll supported deporting all immigrants in America illegally, compared to 42% who opposed it.”

This suggests that even Trump’s historically weak support may already be eroding due to his most controversial executive actions. He is literally leaning into the least popular parts of his agenda.

Granted there’s a strong argument that none of this matters much. First, it’s still early, and midterm elections are unlikely to hinge on Trump’s pardons of January 6 insurrectionists. Second, Trump’s base remains largely unshaken – as the saying goes, he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any support. For them, stock market fluctuations or the price of eggs won’t matter.

But, and this is key, we also know that once a president’s approval dips to pure base support levels, recovery is rare. Trump’s executive actions could put him in that position by Valentine’s Day.

According to Reuters reporting on a New York Times/Ipsos poll “45% of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president, down slightly from 47% in a Jan. 20-21 poll. The share who disapproved was slightly larger at 46%, an increase from 39% in the prior poll.” The poll had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.

"While it does seem Trump is getting a honeymoon to some extent, his numbers are still not impressive by historical standards," said Kyle Kondik, an analyst with the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Not good news for Trump.

Voters who gave Trump a second chance, like a bride with buyer’s remorse, appear to be having second thoughts already. Tough honeymoon.

But, let me be clear. Democrats aren’t in a much better position. In fact, one could argue it’s worse. In today’s Quinnipiac poll, 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 57% have an unfavorable opinion. This is the highest percentage of voters having an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party since the Quinnipiac University Poll began asking this question.

It would appear we could be witnessing the long-term effects of a broad-based systemic collapse in institutional support for the federal government or at least our politicians. Or perhaps voters are just particularly cranky at the moment. Likely both.

Incumbency in modern U.S. politics may be the greatest liability for either party. Both parties seemed locked in a cycle of using the incumbent’s inevitable weak numbers to rally their base – a shortsighted tactic that virtually guarantees a downward spiral in support for the institution of government itself. The only thing worse than being the party out of power is being the party in power.

So, what does this all mean?

First, the data – and common sense - you may have felt a palpable mood shift toward galvanized opposition after Trump’s executive order blitzkrieg. As I pointed out in December, the navel-gazing among Democrats was very likely to continue until the abstract became the existential. The pushback appears to be happening now.

Second, the mood of the electorate is quite dour. Economic uncertainty, rising prices, and domestic chaos are shaking confidence, and Trump will shoulder the blame. The buck stops with him.

Finally, Trump’s communications team remains a mess. Misinformation works better when you’re attacking, not defending. It works when you’re blaming California for fires for example, but at some point, that tactic weakens as it sinks in that you’re in charge so you’re to blame, and lying will only go so far.

There’s one caveat…if Democrats fail to adopt a more aspirational, working-class agenda, all of the opposition efforts will be for naught. They already have a serious brand problem with working-class voters. There’s a very good chance that Republicans will do Democrats a favor and create the conditions ripe for them to win in the midterms, but without an agenda, it could be all for naught.

Opposition is easy, but it’s not sustainable.