I have thought a lot about this election. While I admit one of the reason's for my vote is motivated by my own self-interest as I depend upon Soc. Sec./Medicare and I fear the next administration will get rid of both, I also am concerned about the economy. I find it dismaying that voters say that Trump will be better for the economy.
Am I guilty of being a liberal elite when I ask does anyone else remember such things as :the numbers of us (including myself) who lost their jobs and were in the modern equivalent of bread lines to get food from charities during Covid, the PPP loans which benefitted many of our elected officials cumulatively in the millions of dollars while the rest of us were receiving checks for $1.4K or that employment figures had been rising under the Obama administration even though Trump tried to claim all such good news was fake until he took office?
Am I guilty of being an elitist when it concerns me that it seems as though people don't seem to remember history or economics? I was taught in both such classes that shortages increase prices, starting with the idea that labor shortages, due to wars, natural disasters or pandemics, result in increased wages and prices. But I was also taught the impact that large tariffs can have (Halwey-Smoot tariffs come to mind).
Everyone has their own filters on what happened. I appreciated reading someone else's perceptions. However, from the sources I have seen, Trump voters are mad at the superiority of Biden voters and their votes were partially in resentment of this superiority. My question (a long one with some background): Scammers got ahold of my bank account information last year and conned me out of some money. If I hear someone else telling a similar story and I warm them about the potentiality of being scammed, am I an elitist with a superiority complex because I try to prevent them from going through what I did?
Based upon what I have read, that would be the impression that some voters have of me. There was a huge element of self-interest in my voting choices, but I really did not and do not want to see anyone reap the potential whirlwind.
Thanks for your substack though. I really appreciate the intelligent observations from you and your readers.
What I have always loved about the conversations Mike and Gregory shared on Americanata was how Gregory always challenged me to look inward and examine my own views. Sometimes it wasn’t a comfortable experience, but if I was honest with myself and set my ego aside, I always felt that I came out the other side a better person. This article is a reminder of how much I appreciate Mr. Rodriguez.
This election was undeniably a catastrophic failure for Democrats. Frankly, the finger pointing in its aftermath is both embarrassing and pointless. Dems need to stop the nonsense, look inward, and work the fucking problem. It’s not rocket science. People like Mike and Gregory have done all the heavy lifting.
I didn’t write this essay but your approach cements in my mind that it’s absolutely correct.
I had no problem calling out white conservatives when they’re wrong and I certainly have no problem calling out white progressives when they’re wrong. For thirty years I’ve called out Latinos when they’re wrong and praised them when they’re right.
I’m just pointing out the hypocrisy that exists on both sides.
And btw, don’t really care what your background is, you’re wrong.
My disgust with everyone who voted for Trump is the ability and willingness to ignore the suffering he will unleash, along with his criminality, misogyny, racism and xenophobia, for lower grocery prices and/or an immigration issue/border problem he doesn't want to fix. Cherry-picking comments from some angry assholes is no more representative of great thought than the reactionary comments quoted.
Mr. Madrid, I think that it cuts both ways. Higher profile individuals with larger platforms and/or louder voices can be more visible. I also choose to not follow and subscribe to those who espouse these opinions mentioned in the piece. For instance, I don't watch MSNBC or CNN, if one of those networks is the one you are referring to. Clearly, we will not agree on pervasiveness of this issue. Nonetheless, thank you for your time and response in a courteous manner. Regardless of the pervasiveness of this among liberals, it is uncalled for, disappointing, bigoted and frankly unproductive going forward from the perspective of rebuilding any kind of coalition. I am truly sorry for this having been directed to you and anyone else who has been a target for this.
Mr. Madrid, you clearly feel this is a common opinion among liberals. I acknowledge that it may be more widespread than I realize because I don't consciously follow people who espouse this type rhetoric. Respectfully, until there is some data that says otherwise, I think this may, and I emphasize the word "may", be a form of "visibility bias".
I’m guessing you’re referring to your own bias correct?
This opinion is pervasive throughout the party right now. I just mentioned it’s on the most common cable news networks for Democrats and among social media influencers.
If you’re not to seeing it it’s because you are choosing not to - which is the visibility bias you’re referring to.
I have no idea who or what you are referring to. I am not going to dig through social media to find out who. Yes, there are angry racists on the left too. No, it isn't right. The loudest voices are not the most representative.
You can’t claim it’s ’cherry Picking’ and then say you don’t pay attention to the loudest voices. It’s not ‘cherry picking’ it’s a common opinion being voiced in the party.
I am sorry Mike but this post comes across as a bit self-serving to me. I mean, you were perfectly ok to lay the blame on white women on social media but got all hot and bothered as soon as talk turned to the Latino community. Who is really practicing identity politics now?
Are you really denying that there is a culture of machismo, misogyny and anti-black racism in some segments of the Latino community? I know from first hand experience how indigenous & black people are referred to with mocking nicknames like "negro", "negrita" and "indio".
I do get the frustrations with inflation. But was it really worth it to vote for a convicted felon rapist who attempted a coup last time? How come you don't find any discomfort in finding out that so many of your fellow Latino men voted for Trump? And let's face it, to Latino men, a person like Trump is not really an aberration given how regularly they elect corrupt, violent strongmen and authoritarians all over Central & South America.
And buddy, before you morally hector me as a white progressive liberal, please note that I am neither. I am off Indian (South Asian) heritage. And my people voted like 70% plus for Kamala. I won't be shedding a single tear if working class Latino Trump voters get hurt by his tariffs & tax breaks for Elon Musk or see some family members get deported. It would be really funny actually! Hey, they voted for it, so FAFO. And your friend Rick Wilson said the very same thing on the Michael Steele podcast, so I am in solid company haha!
Since the election, I've taken a mental health break from the news and especially from social media, so thankfully I've missed the lashing out and hideous hot takes that come after a shocking election loss. I'm sorry to hear about the backlash against Latinos and other POC who voted for Trump. But can we please dispense with broad brushing that paints every Democrat or center-left Indy as holding the same views as the vocal idiots? The fact is there's only ONE boat, and we're all in it together. I'd appreciate not having every non-Trump voter lumped into 'Group A' thinking.
That said, people have to be 18 to vote, which makes them adults. As adults, we're all responsible for our decisions. Already we're hearing stories of distraught Trump voters finding out that, yes, he is planning on imposing massive tariffs, and, no, those tariffs aren't paid by other countries; they're paid by U.S. consumers. I have no problem with facing people who made the decision to vote for Trump with the consequences of having made that decision. I'm old enough to remember when personal responsibility was part of republican dogma. It's certainly part of mine. When the inevitable pain of Trump's second term begins to hit ALL OF US, and it will, people who voted for him need to be reminded that this is what they voted for. Actions have consequences, and adults have to accept that.
This is an oversimplification. I think that people were expressing shock and anger and confusion. I don’t remember people having this reaction when Latinos voted for Bush in large numbers. Trump says horrible things about Latinos and other racial groups then gains voters from those same groups, who appear to actually be breaking from the party they normally vote with, it is mind bending. Especially when much of the party’s platform is centered around vilifying these groups. It would be one thing for the group to break from the party and there to be a backlash; this essay would make sense. But this essay doesn’t address the special circumstances here.
I don’t think it’s any different than people scratching their heads when union members say they are supporting Trump after he has done many things to hurt labor. I think with Latinos it is more pronounced because of the extreme racism from the Trump campaign.
It’s also insulting to imply that group A benefits from a coalition more than the other groups. All the groups benefit equally from a coalition. I don’t see how one group benefits any more than any other. This implies that just because one group is financially more affluent, that they benefit more from the coalition. I don’t buy this. It also implies that these voters (group A) don’t actually care about the causes of the party platform and just go along with the other groups needs to get sone sort of quid pro qui and achieve their own ends. I don’t think this is true at all.
If you think white and Latino people benefit equally from the political system than there’s no having an honest rational discussion with you. “,,,just because one group is financially more affluent, that they benefit more from the coalition. I don’t buy this.”
I mean there isn’t even a response needed to this.
I am not the one making the economic divide; the article does when it places group A on the Westside of LA. My point is that in a coalition, all groups benefit equally for which policies are enacted. I don’t know enough to say how the economics work out, for each of the constituencies. I wouldn’t draw an economic divide; I’m just making a point based on a divide that THE ARTICLE is already making. I actually make the argument that all groups benefit from the coalition; the essay is arguing that Group A somehow benefits more and then is upset when the others groups decide to abandon the coalition.
I happen to think Latino voter voted on an economic populist message and it was misguided and the demes failed to get that message out there. And I’m pissed at white women, the union voters who were duped, and all kinds of people in the dem coalition. But I just don’t believe that it’s fair to start scapegoating liberal elites as using Latinos when they need them and then blaming them when they don’t vote how they want. I think they were taken in by Trump like lots of groups have been and it is okay to say that they were duped.
Democrats need to accept that voters owe us nothing. Identity politics has become too much of white progressives celebrating their perceived altruism and virtue signaling. It helped to chase away voters we needed to defeat an authoritarian in Trump. It’s sad that it took this long just for there to be a permission structure for Democrats to begin acknowledging the problem without fears of getting cancelled.
Class, cost of living and housing, wages, etc impact everybody. And if rent and food are unaffordable and the incumbent party fails to convince voters they have a plan to fix it. Then whether someone is green, purple, pink or from the planet Vulcan. They’re going to be compelled to vote for the opposition.
Please Democrats, let’s get back to a full throttled working class message. Treat voters as individuals that have concerns that go beyond their identity.
I agree with you that we should get back to a working class message. Dems have become to concerned with helping various groups, and now it clearly being used against the party. Somehow as a liberal in California when I have voted for policies in this state that have been against my economic interest because I felt they were the right thing to do, I’m now being told I did it just to buy votes from members of a coalition. Okay whatever.
With poverty rates in California the worst in the nation and housing affordability making it impossible for working class people to buy a home it might be time to consider you haven’t been voting to
You’re making assumptions. I am part of the middle class. I’m in the teachers union and far from the Westside elite this article is talking about, but I don’t believe in finger pointing in either direction. I don’t blame Latinos for losing this election, but I don’t agree with this article completely. It feels like a justification for why Latinos leave the coalition because elite liberals use them. Sorry, but this makes no sense to me. If people feel they’d do better under Republican administrations and there’d be less poverty, then they should vote for that. I say the same thing is true for the teamsters; if they believe GOP policies will be better for labor they should vote for them and see. We know how that worked in WI. It’s lazy leadership and education by the union leadership that has allowed this belief to take over. Same thing for women; if they think their rights will be protected by GOP policies, then let’s see what happens. This problem isn’t exclusive to the Latino voting block and it really comes down to poor messaging by Dems and the various coalition group leaders and Trump’s cult-like ability to lie. But blaming Latinos or elite Westside liberals is a waste of time.
I appreciate the work you've been doing in understanding the dynamics with Latino voters.
However, I do have some questions for you about the economic dissatisfaction that you've identified as a primary cause for some of the defection of Latino vote margins away from Democrats and towards Trump.
1. Are the same voters who haven't liked the economy for year or so going to decide in 3-6 months that the economy is great suddenly, although conditions aren't likely to have significantly changed?
2. Trump's promised policies are all inflationary, and some may even be bad enough to induce a serious recession in the next few years. Will the Latino voters who said they voted for Trump for economic reasons turn on Trump and the GOP if inflation spikes, and, worse, the economy starts hemorrhaging blue collar jobs?
If the answers to those questions on a population basis are yes to (1) and no to (2), then we will have conducted a robust scientific experiment which demonstrates, with little ambiguity, that it was not economic conditions driving dissatisfaction with the Democrats, but something else; economic complaints are just a pretext, then, for something cultural or psychological. I'm not suggesting here that Democrats couldn't stand to improve some of their economic policy-making in various ways (and we can have empirical debates about this), but, rather, that the core problem might not be Democrats' policies or the material situation of these "cross-over" voters.
So: how would you revise your thesis about Latino voters if this turns about to be the case?
Well it makes no sense to address hypotheticals. I’ve been very public that this could all be turned around and it still can. I wrote a damned book about it.
This has been going on for over a decade. The fact that it’s been ignored until everyone suddenly wakes up and decides it’s racism and sexism because they’ve chosen not to see an obvious problem for decades is…well it’s offensive.
You should ask yourself why your only choosing to ask this question now when it started a decade ago and people lives haven’t improved. Or the year after that. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.
Is it because they’re brown? Would you have paid attention if they were white?
I'm not a political commentator. I work in the construction industry. I'm fully aware that housing costs are really difficult right now, and that we had about 18 months from late 2021 to early 2023 where real wages were declining. However, real wages have been increasing since mid-2023; inflation is back to normal; inequality has gone down since the mid-2010s; we have historically low unemployment; commodity prices aren't actually historically high across the board (for example, food prices are actually relatively low as a portion of income relative to where they were a generation or two ago); interest rates are coming down; etc. The US is doing better than any other developed economy and that reflects sound policy-making coming out of the pandemic. Yes, many people are struggling. But all of the solutions Trump talks about are only going to make the situation worse for the working class. There has never been a golden age where nobody in the country struggled.
My question isn't really about Latinos specifically -- it's more general. Are non-educated voters (of any race) actually reacting to economic conditions, or are these conditions a pretext for something else? It's an important question, because if economic conditions aren't actually the electoral problem, then we shouldn't focus on *the substance of economic policies* as the prime electoral issue that needs to be fixed. This doesn't necessarily mean the other factors are racism or sexism or whatever; personally, I think there's something deeper going on here, and I've written about that in the past.
I bring this up because I think you have one of the more incisive views on what's happening to the electorate, and I've been paying close attention to your ideas about the election. However, you're claiming that some of this Latino voter reaction against Democrats is a result of national policies that have produced difficult economic conditions, as if that's happening in an information vacuum. It's not clear to me that this is in fact the case. This is not an abstract hypothetical: we have a chance to test that proposition empirically in the coming months and we should be paying attention. Are these blue collar voters (of any race) changing their view of the economy based on election results (and various factors that come with the election) rather than actual economic conditions? If the problem is cultural or psychological (which could mean many different things), then the specifics of economic policy, while important for people employed to develop and implement policy, are NOT what political operations should be fretting upon.
If the same dynamic plays out again in the next year, we'll have conducted (again) an unambiguous natural experiment, where the Biden economy and attendant attitudes are the control group and the Trump economy and attitudes are the experimental group. In a year, this data won't be hypothetical. If we are going to have a "scientific" view of electoral outcomes, data like this can't be ignored.
And nothing major has changed about the economy in the last week, except that companies are gearing up to raise prices to pass on potential tariff costs to consumers. Will blue collar voters be angry about inflation if it happens under a Republican administration?
You can argue that Democrats, as an aggregate, could continue to improve their economic policies (I wouldn't disagree with this), but if Republicans' policies are likely to make things worse, and they aren't punished for it, then people are telling us rationalizations for their voting behavior, not the deeper, emotional reasons for it. In economics, this is called a revealed preference. If this trend continues as it has for the last decade plus, it's a major data point that has to be factored into any analysis of the electorate, Latino or otherwise. Democrats have a *messaging* problem, not a *policy* problem.
Both can be true. A party can have a policy and messaging problem at the same time. I can tell you this - no party can cover a policy problem with simple messaging for long.
That's the what the Republicans have been doing for decades. The GOP hasn't had a productive, successful policy program since I started voting in the late 90s. Trump may very well cause severe inflation and tank the economy, and none of his supporters will blink; or he'll use the organs of state to brutalize dissent, and the public is too passive to understand what's happening or fight back against. This isn't science fiction -- it's happening in other countries and it has happened in the past.
My worry is that Democrats LOVE to talk about policy. And you can get an argument going on within the party if you raise awareness on certain issues, and Democrats will engage, and eventually new policies ideas will get absorbed by Democratic politicians. For example, the housing crisis is one of the biggest blind spots Democrats have, and, guess what, there is a whole YIMBY movement within the liberal coalition working on ideas to address it. I think there will be more development on this front in the coming years than there has been for a long time. I'm skeptical, however, that any of this stuff will matter because low-information voters don't actually care about the facts on the ground -- it's about the messages they're being fed by reactionary information ecosystems and how this shapes their feelings. So Democrats will waste time debating policies that they can't implement and that wouldn't help their political standing even if they were implemented and were successful. Meanwhile, Republicans will continue to take no responsibility for the state of the country, and maintain their grip on power purely through their messaging regime.
I think you have great insight on how the voters you study are trending and some of the attitudes and social behaviors associated with them, but I'm not convinced your analysis fully deals with the wider cultural ecosystem in which these trends are playing out.
I think you’re convincing yourself of something that’s not true. Harris copied Republicans on border security, energy production, the opportunity economy, no taxes on tips…and on and on.
You’re trying to rationalize how you’re right after a loss. Take a deep breath and realize it’s ok to be wrong
Love hearing from you, Gregory! Americanata is my all time favorite of Mike Madrid in podcast form. Your philosophical renderings are priceless. Welcome!
P.S. Mike, correct the date of Americanata date fr 2024 to 2020…
I’m a 64 year-old Nuyorican, Fred Hampton-Cha Cha Jimenez Nuyorican. My social conscience and political commitment, formed early, has remained constant along my path from the projects to Paris, from the South Bronx to South Kensington. I never wavered from my core values (save for reasonable maturity, I like to think) even as I bounded socio-economic and class boundaries.
I’m also angry, judgmental, fancy myself pithy, and enjoy the sound of my own voice. I spout insults liberally in the general direction of US Latinos from Miami to Texas who aren’t, like me, down with the bruthas.
It’s taken this election for me to realize those are my values, not theirs. Punto.
What do I do now? How can I contribute meaningfully to achieve the outcomes I find vital to sustain global liberal democracy? Mike Madrid says this is fixable.
I’ve decided to sheathe the invectives and limit my efforts to positive measures. To listen and learn and direct my political engagement to trying to build working coalitions. I don’t have to like the motherfuckers. I saw a quote the other day that all democrats want to work in policy, not in sales.
I’m listening and learning from Mike, Chuck Rocha, now from Gregory Rodriguez. I’m open to change, however uncomfortable that may be. Thank you for your efforts, all.
Speaking as a Member of Group A (assumed to be white Democrats in GR’s article), although it’s undeniable that we would clearly want the voters of Group H (assumed to be Hispanic) & Group J (other minorities) voting with us so that we Democrats could win elections, I would disagree with you that Group A’s anger is about not be able to control Groups H & J as implied by the phrase “benevolence” as if we were the kindly slavemaster that bestowed kindness upon his slaves - far from it. The anger is a sense of HUGE BETRAYAL that we have fought hard to protect minorities rights and benefits such as food, shelter & healthcare for many many years for which the Republicans have fought us vigorously for DECADES to deny rights to all minorities, of which the Hispanic sector is clearly the largest & fastest growing. If this were any other election, we Democrats would NOT feel so betrayed. In 2004, Republicans were making big gains with the Hispanic vote (mostly because of Abortion issue & because most Hispanics are (were) Catholics, and Democrats were of course not pleased with the Hispanic vote for George Bush but we understood it & accepted it. In California where I have lived my entire life, our state is now majority minority (meaning white folks are the minority) & we have not only shared power with the Hispanic community but they have been in governmental leadership positions for over a decade - so we Democrats in California comfortably share power equally with Hispanics with Latinas moving faster up the leadership of our government - which as a woman I am very happy to see not out of some weird self righteousness (that is implied in GR’s article) as if we white Democrats made them successful - no these Latinas did it themselves & we are very happy for them. That is my point, I am most disturbed by your implication in your article, that we are feel a sense of righteousness about Latin success (which they did on their own) and I am disturbed by your use of the term (& implication) benevolence to Groups H & J as if we are their slavemaster & they are our slaves whom we benevolently allow certain wins - hogwash they are successful in their own right - we support - we would like them to stay with our voting violation but if they switch then we have to accept it - EXCEPT THIS ELECTION - this election was the last hope to save our nation & democracy from Authoritarian rule & to restore THE RULE OF LAW & decency back to America - it is the TIMING of the defection by Groups H & J that hurts the most coupled with the SIZE (30% of Latino men) of the Loss AND the fact that these voters based their decision to vote for Trump on an AVALANCHE of LIES (which they obviously were/are not aware of) due to the huge wall of GOP Disinformation (JoeRogan & Barstool) that we Democrats cannot penetrate - we are mourning the loss of our nations democracy - yes we Democrats were fighting headwinds of inflation under which ALL INCUMBENT PARTIES LOSE (Truman, Carter, Bush Sr & now Biden) due to angry voters saying “throw the bums out” - but this was not a normal election for our country - for Groups H & J to ONLY focus on their wallets and either ignore all the negatives of Trump & Project 2025 & GOP (including racism & sexism) or not take the time to do a fucking Google search just really feels like they don’t care about our country which feels to us like not just betrayal of the Democratic Party but a betrayal of our very country - that’s what hurts
I have thought a lot about this election. While I admit one of the reason's for my vote is motivated by my own self-interest as I depend upon Soc. Sec./Medicare and I fear the next administration will get rid of both, I also am concerned about the economy. I find it dismaying that voters say that Trump will be better for the economy.
Am I guilty of being a liberal elite when I ask does anyone else remember such things as :the numbers of us (including myself) who lost their jobs and were in the modern equivalent of bread lines to get food from charities during Covid, the PPP loans which benefitted many of our elected officials cumulatively in the millions of dollars while the rest of us were receiving checks for $1.4K or that employment figures had been rising under the Obama administration even though Trump tried to claim all such good news was fake until he took office?
Am I guilty of being an elitist when it concerns me that it seems as though people don't seem to remember history or economics? I was taught in both such classes that shortages increase prices, starting with the idea that labor shortages, due to wars, natural disasters or pandemics, result in increased wages and prices. But I was also taught the impact that large tariffs can have (Halwey-Smoot tariffs come to mind).
Everyone has their own filters on what happened. I appreciated reading someone else's perceptions. However, from the sources I have seen, Trump voters are mad at the superiority of Biden voters and their votes were partially in resentment of this superiority. My question (a long one with some background): Scammers got ahold of my bank account information last year and conned me out of some money. If I hear someone else telling a similar story and I warm them about the potentiality of being scammed, am I an elitist with a superiority complex because I try to prevent them from going through what I did?
Based upon what I have read, that would be the impression that some voters have of me. There was a huge element of self-interest in my voting choices, but I really did not and do not want to see anyone reap the potential whirlwind.
Thanks for your substack though. I really appreciate the intelligent observations from you and your readers.
What I have always loved about the conversations Mike and Gregory shared on Americanata was how Gregory always challenged me to look inward and examine my own views. Sometimes it wasn’t a comfortable experience, but if I was honest with myself and set my ego aside, I always felt that I came out the other side a better person. This article is a reminder of how much I appreciate Mr. Rodriguez.
This election was undeniably a catastrophic failure for Democrats. Frankly, the finger pointing in its aftermath is both embarrassing and pointless. Dems need to stop the nonsense, look inward, and work the fucking problem. It’s not rocket science. People like Mike and Gregory have done all the heavy lifting.
I didn’t write this essay but your approach cements in my mind that it’s absolutely correct.
I had no problem calling out white conservatives when they’re wrong and I certainly have no problem calling out white progressives when they’re wrong. For thirty years I’ve called out Latinos when they’re wrong and praised them when they’re right.
I’m just pointing out the hypocrisy that exists on both sides.
And btw, don’t really care what your background is, you’re wrong.
My disgust with everyone who voted for Trump is the ability and willingness to ignore the suffering he will unleash, along with his criminality, misogyny, racism and xenophobia, for lower grocery prices and/or an immigration issue/border problem he doesn't want to fix. Cherry-picking comments from some angry assholes is no more representative of great thought than the reactionary comments quoted.
You mean like prominent cable news commentators and social media influencers?
Using the language you’ve decided to use leads me to believe the representative sample is perfectly valid
Mr. Madrid, I think that it cuts both ways. Higher profile individuals with larger platforms and/or louder voices can be more visible. I also choose to not follow and subscribe to those who espouse these opinions mentioned in the piece. For instance, I don't watch MSNBC or CNN, if one of those networks is the one you are referring to. Clearly, we will not agree on pervasiveness of this issue. Nonetheless, thank you for your time and response in a courteous manner. Regardless of the pervasiveness of this among liberals, it is uncalled for, disappointing, bigoted and frankly unproductive going forward from the perspective of rebuilding any kind of coalition. I am truly sorry for this having been directed to you and anyone else who has been a target for this.
Mr. Madrid, you clearly feel this is a common opinion among liberals. I acknowledge that it may be more widespread than I realize because I don't consciously follow people who espouse this type rhetoric. Respectfully, until there is some data that says otherwise, I think this may, and I emphasize the word "may", be a form of "visibility bias".
I’m guessing you’re referring to your own bias correct?
This opinion is pervasive throughout the party right now. I just mentioned it’s on the most common cable news networks for Democrats and among social media influencers.
If you’re not to seeing it it’s because you are choosing not to - which is the visibility bias you’re referring to.
I have no idea who or what you are referring to. I am not going to dig through social media to find out who. Yes, there are angry racists on the left too. No, it isn't right. The loudest voices are not the most representative.
You can’t claim it’s ’cherry Picking’ and then say you don’t pay attention to the loudest voices. It’s not ‘cherry picking’ it’s a common opinion being voiced in the party.
I am sorry Mike but this post comes across as a bit self-serving to me. I mean, you were perfectly ok to lay the blame on white women on social media but got all hot and bothered as soon as talk turned to the Latino community. Who is really practicing identity politics now?
Are you really denying that there is a culture of machismo, misogyny and anti-black racism in some segments of the Latino community? I know from first hand experience how indigenous & black people are referred to with mocking nicknames like "negro", "negrita" and "indio".
I do get the frustrations with inflation. But was it really worth it to vote for a convicted felon rapist who attempted a coup last time? How come you don't find any discomfort in finding out that so many of your fellow Latino men voted for Trump? And let's face it, to Latino men, a person like Trump is not really an aberration given how regularly they elect corrupt, violent strongmen and authoritarians all over Central & South America.
And buddy, before you morally hector me as a white progressive liberal, please note that I am neither. I am off Indian (South Asian) heritage. And my people voted like 70% plus for Kamala. I won't be shedding a single tear if working class Latino Trump voters get hurt by his tariffs & tax breaks for Elon Musk or see some family members get deported. It would be really funny actually! Hey, they voted for it, so FAFO. And your friend Rick Wilson said the very same thing on the Michael Steele podcast, so I am in solid company haha!
Since the election, I've taken a mental health break from the news and especially from social media, so thankfully I've missed the lashing out and hideous hot takes that come after a shocking election loss. I'm sorry to hear about the backlash against Latinos and other POC who voted for Trump. But can we please dispense with broad brushing that paints every Democrat or center-left Indy as holding the same views as the vocal idiots? The fact is there's only ONE boat, and we're all in it together. I'd appreciate not having every non-Trump voter lumped into 'Group A' thinking.
That said, people have to be 18 to vote, which makes them adults. As adults, we're all responsible for our decisions. Already we're hearing stories of distraught Trump voters finding out that, yes, he is planning on imposing massive tariffs, and, no, those tariffs aren't paid by other countries; they're paid by U.S. consumers. I have no problem with facing people who made the decision to vote for Trump with the consequences of having made that decision. I'm old enough to remember when personal responsibility was part of republican dogma. It's certainly part of mine. When the inevitable pain of Trump's second term begins to hit ALL OF US, and it will, people who voted for him need to be reminded that this is what they voted for. Actions have consequences, and adults have to accept that.
This is an oversimplification. I think that people were expressing shock and anger and confusion. I don’t remember people having this reaction when Latinos voted for Bush in large numbers. Trump says horrible things about Latinos and other racial groups then gains voters from those same groups, who appear to actually be breaking from the party they normally vote with, it is mind bending. Especially when much of the party’s platform is centered around vilifying these groups. It would be one thing for the group to break from the party and there to be a backlash; this essay would make sense. But this essay doesn’t address the special circumstances here.
I don’t think it’s any different than people scratching their heads when union members say they are supporting Trump after he has done many things to hurt labor. I think with Latinos it is more pronounced because of the extreme racism from the Trump campaign.
It’s also insulting to imply that group A benefits from a coalition more than the other groups. All the groups benefit equally from a coalition. I don’t see how one group benefits any more than any other. This implies that just because one group is financially more affluent, that they benefit more from the coalition. I don’t buy this. It also implies that these voters (group A) don’t actually care about the causes of the party platform and just go along with the other groups needs to get sone sort of quid pro qui and achieve their own ends. I don’t think this is true at all.
If you think white and Latino people benefit equally from the political system than there’s no having an honest rational discussion with you. “,,,just because one group is financially more affluent, that they benefit more from the coalition. I don’t buy this.”
I mean there isn’t even a response needed to this.
I am not the one making the economic divide; the article does when it places group A on the Westside of LA. My point is that in a coalition, all groups benefit equally for which policies are enacted. I don’t know enough to say how the economics work out, for each of the constituencies. I wouldn’t draw an economic divide; I’m just making a point based on a divide that THE ARTICLE is already making. I actually make the argument that all groups benefit from the coalition; the essay is arguing that Group A somehow benefits more and then is upset when the others groups decide to abandon the coalition.
Let me correct and say not benefit “equally” but “mutually”
I happen to think Latino voter voted on an economic populist message and it was misguided and the demes failed to get that message out there. And I’m pissed at white women, the union voters who were duped, and all kinds of people in the dem coalition. But I just don’t believe that it’s fair to start scapegoating liberal elites as using Latinos when they need them and then blaming them when they don’t vote how they want. I think they were taken in by Trump like lots of groups have been and it is okay to say that they were duped.
What a challenging and insightful piece.
Democrats need to accept that voters owe us nothing. Identity politics has become too much of white progressives celebrating their perceived altruism and virtue signaling. It helped to chase away voters we needed to defeat an authoritarian in Trump. It’s sad that it took this long just for there to be a permission structure for Democrats to begin acknowledging the problem without fears of getting cancelled.
Class, cost of living and housing, wages, etc impact everybody. And if rent and food are unaffordable and the incumbent party fails to convince voters they have a plan to fix it. Then whether someone is green, purple, pink or from the planet Vulcan. They’re going to be compelled to vote for the opposition.
Please Democrats, let’s get back to a full throttled working class message. Treat voters as individuals that have concerns that go beyond their identity.
I agree with you that we should get back to a working class message. Dems have become to concerned with helping various groups, and now it clearly being used against the party. Somehow as a liberal in California when I have voted for policies in this state that have been against my economic interest because I felt they were the right thing to do, I’m now being told I did it just to buy votes from members of a coalition. Okay whatever.
“Too”
With poverty rates in California the worst in the nation and housing affordability making it impossible for working class people to buy a home it might be time to consider you haven’t been voting to
Improve anyone’s financial consideration at all
You’re making assumptions. I am part of the middle class. I’m in the teachers union and far from the Westside elite this article is talking about, but I don’t believe in finger pointing in either direction. I don’t blame Latinos for losing this election, but I don’t agree with this article completely. It feels like a justification for why Latinos leave the coalition because elite liberals use them. Sorry, but this makes no sense to me. If people feel they’d do better under Republican administrations and there’d be less poverty, then they should vote for that. I say the same thing is true for the teamsters; if they believe GOP policies will be better for labor they should vote for them and see. We know how that worked in WI. It’s lazy leadership and education by the union leadership that has allowed this belief to take over. Same thing for women; if they think their rights will be protected by GOP policies, then let’s see what happens. This problem isn’t exclusive to the Latino voting block and it really comes down to poor messaging by Dems and the various coalition group leaders and Trump’s cult-like ability to lie. But blaming Latinos or elite Westside liberals is a waste of time.
Mike--
I appreciate the work you've been doing in understanding the dynamics with Latino voters.
However, I do have some questions for you about the economic dissatisfaction that you've identified as a primary cause for some of the defection of Latino vote margins away from Democrats and towards Trump.
1. Are the same voters who haven't liked the economy for year or so going to decide in 3-6 months that the economy is great suddenly, although conditions aren't likely to have significantly changed?
2. Trump's promised policies are all inflationary, and some may even be bad enough to induce a serious recession in the next few years. Will the Latino voters who said they voted for Trump for economic reasons turn on Trump and the GOP if inflation spikes, and, worse, the economy starts hemorrhaging blue collar jobs?
If the answers to those questions on a population basis are yes to (1) and no to (2), then we will have conducted a robust scientific experiment which demonstrates, with little ambiguity, that it was not economic conditions driving dissatisfaction with the Democrats, but something else; economic complaints are just a pretext, then, for something cultural or psychological. I'm not suggesting here that Democrats couldn't stand to improve some of their economic policy-making in various ways (and we can have empirical debates about this), but, rather, that the core problem might not be Democrats' policies or the material situation of these "cross-over" voters.
So: how would you revise your thesis about Latino voters if this turns about to be the case?
Well it makes no sense to address hypotheticals. I’ve been very public that this could all be turned around and it still can. I wrote a damned book about it.
This has been going on for over a decade. The fact that it’s been ignored until everyone suddenly wakes up and decides it’s racism and sexism because they’ve chosen not to see an obvious problem for decades is…well it’s offensive.
You should ask yourself why your only choosing to ask this question now when it started a decade ago and people lives haven’t improved. Or the year after that. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.
Is it because they’re brown? Would you have paid attention if they were white?
Both sides can play the hypothetical game.
I'm not a political commentator. I work in the construction industry. I'm fully aware that housing costs are really difficult right now, and that we had about 18 months from late 2021 to early 2023 where real wages were declining. However, real wages have been increasing since mid-2023; inflation is back to normal; inequality has gone down since the mid-2010s; we have historically low unemployment; commodity prices aren't actually historically high across the board (for example, food prices are actually relatively low as a portion of income relative to where they were a generation or two ago); interest rates are coming down; etc. The US is doing better than any other developed economy and that reflects sound policy-making coming out of the pandemic. Yes, many people are struggling. But all of the solutions Trump talks about are only going to make the situation worse for the working class. There has never been a golden age where nobody in the country struggled.
My question isn't really about Latinos specifically -- it's more general. Are non-educated voters (of any race) actually reacting to economic conditions, or are these conditions a pretext for something else? It's an important question, because if economic conditions aren't actually the electoral problem, then we shouldn't focus on *the substance of economic policies* as the prime electoral issue that needs to be fixed. This doesn't necessarily mean the other factors are racism or sexism or whatever; personally, I think there's something deeper going on here, and I've written about that in the past.
I bring this up because I think you have one of the more incisive views on what's happening to the electorate, and I've been paying close attention to your ideas about the election. However, you're claiming that some of this Latino voter reaction against Democrats is a result of national policies that have produced difficult economic conditions, as if that's happening in an information vacuum. It's not clear to me that this is in fact the case. This is not an abstract hypothetical: we have a chance to test that proposition empirically in the coming months and we should be paying attention. Are these blue collar voters (of any race) changing their view of the economy based on election results (and various factors that come with the election) rather than actual economic conditions? If the problem is cultural or psychological (which could mean many different things), then the specifics of economic policy, while important for people employed to develop and implement policy, are NOT what political operations should be fretting upon.
Darrell Owens makes the observation retrospectively that I'm asking about:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-150778252?source=queue
If the same dynamic plays out again in the next year, we'll have conducted (again) an unambiguous natural experiment, where the Biden economy and attendant attitudes are the control group and the Trump economy and attitudes are the experimental group. In a year, this data won't be hypothetical. If we are going to have a "scientific" view of electoral outcomes, data like this can't be ignored.
Look: Republican consumer sentiment is already surging.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/business/economy/consumer-sentiment-trump.html
And nothing major has changed about the economy in the last week, except that companies are gearing up to raise prices to pass on potential tariff costs to consumers. Will blue collar voters be angry about inflation if it happens under a Republican administration?
You can argue that Democrats, as an aggregate, could continue to improve their economic policies (I wouldn't disagree with this), but if Republicans' policies are likely to make things worse, and they aren't punished for it, then people are telling us rationalizations for their voting behavior, not the deeper, emotional reasons for it. In economics, this is called a revealed preference. If this trend continues as it has for the last decade plus, it's a major data point that has to be factored into any analysis of the electorate, Latino or otherwise. Democrats have a *messaging* problem, not a *policy* problem.
Both can be true. A party can have a policy and messaging problem at the same time. I can tell you this - no party can cover a policy problem with simple messaging for long.
That's the what the Republicans have been doing for decades. The GOP hasn't had a productive, successful policy program since I started voting in the late 90s. Trump may very well cause severe inflation and tank the economy, and none of his supporters will blink; or he'll use the organs of state to brutalize dissent, and the public is too passive to understand what's happening or fight back against. This isn't science fiction -- it's happening in other countries and it has happened in the past.
My worry is that Democrats LOVE to talk about policy. And you can get an argument going on within the party if you raise awareness on certain issues, and Democrats will engage, and eventually new policies ideas will get absorbed by Democratic politicians. For example, the housing crisis is one of the biggest blind spots Democrats have, and, guess what, there is a whole YIMBY movement within the liberal coalition working on ideas to address it. I think there will be more development on this front in the coming years than there has been for a long time. I'm skeptical, however, that any of this stuff will matter because low-information voters don't actually care about the facts on the ground -- it's about the messages they're being fed by reactionary information ecosystems and how this shapes their feelings. So Democrats will waste time debating policies that they can't implement and that wouldn't help their political standing even if they were implemented and were successful. Meanwhile, Republicans will continue to take no responsibility for the state of the country, and maintain their grip on power purely through their messaging regime.
I think you have great insight on how the voters you study are trending and some of the attitudes and social behaviors associated with them, but I'm not convinced your analysis fully deals with the wider cultural ecosystem in which these trends are playing out.
I think you’re convincing yourself of something that’s not true. Harris copied Republicans on border security, energy production, the opportunity economy, no taxes on tips…and on and on.
You’re trying to rationalize how you’re right after a loss. Take a deep breath and realize it’s ok to be wrong
What a good piece! Thank you for sharing this. I was a subscriber to Americanata, and enjoyed and benefited from your podcasts. Nice pieces of work.
Love hearing from you, Gregory! Americanata is my all time favorite of Mike Madrid in podcast form. Your philosophical renderings are priceless. Welcome!
P.S. Mike, correct the date of Americanata date fr 2024 to 2020…
On the matter of the so-called Latino vote:
I’m a 64 year-old Nuyorican, Fred Hampton-Cha Cha Jimenez Nuyorican. My social conscience and political commitment, formed early, has remained constant along my path from the projects to Paris, from the South Bronx to South Kensington. I never wavered from my core values (save for reasonable maturity, I like to think) even as I bounded socio-economic and class boundaries.
I’m also angry, judgmental, fancy myself pithy, and enjoy the sound of my own voice. I spout insults liberally in the general direction of US Latinos from Miami to Texas who aren’t, like me, down with the bruthas.
It’s taken this election for me to realize those are my values, not theirs. Punto.
What do I do now? How can I contribute meaningfully to achieve the outcomes I find vital to sustain global liberal democracy? Mike Madrid says this is fixable.
I’ve decided to sheathe the invectives and limit my efforts to positive measures. To listen and learn and direct my political engagement to trying to build working coalitions. I don’t have to like the motherfuckers. I saw a quote the other day that all democrats want to work in policy, not in sales.
I’m listening and learning from Mike, Chuck Rocha, now from Gregory Rodriguez. I’m open to change, however uncomfortable that may be. Thank you for your efforts, all.
Speaking as a Member of Group A (assumed to be white Democrats in GR’s article), although it’s undeniable that we would clearly want the voters of Group H (assumed to be Hispanic) & Group J (other minorities) voting with us so that we Democrats could win elections, I would disagree with you that Group A’s anger is about not be able to control Groups H & J as implied by the phrase “benevolence” as if we were the kindly slavemaster that bestowed kindness upon his slaves - far from it. The anger is a sense of HUGE BETRAYAL that we have fought hard to protect minorities rights and benefits such as food, shelter & healthcare for many many years for which the Republicans have fought us vigorously for DECADES to deny rights to all minorities, of which the Hispanic sector is clearly the largest & fastest growing. If this were any other election, we Democrats would NOT feel so betrayed. In 2004, Republicans were making big gains with the Hispanic vote (mostly because of Abortion issue & because most Hispanics are (were) Catholics, and Democrats were of course not pleased with the Hispanic vote for George Bush but we understood it & accepted it. In California where I have lived my entire life, our state is now majority minority (meaning white folks are the minority) & we have not only shared power with the Hispanic community but they have been in governmental leadership positions for over a decade - so we Democrats in California comfortably share power equally with Hispanics with Latinas moving faster up the leadership of our government - which as a woman I am very happy to see not out of some weird self righteousness (that is implied in GR’s article) as if we white Democrats made them successful - no these Latinas did it themselves & we are very happy for them. That is my point, I am most disturbed by your implication in your article, that we are feel a sense of righteousness about Latin success (which they did on their own) and I am disturbed by your use of the term (& implication) benevolence to Groups H & J as if we are their slavemaster & they are our slaves whom we benevolently allow certain wins - hogwash they are successful in their own right - we support - we would like them to stay with our voting violation but if they switch then we have to accept it - EXCEPT THIS ELECTION - this election was the last hope to save our nation & democracy from Authoritarian rule & to restore THE RULE OF LAW & decency back to America - it is the TIMING of the defection by Groups H & J that hurts the most coupled with the SIZE (30% of Latino men) of the Loss AND the fact that these voters based their decision to vote for Trump on an AVALANCHE of LIES (which they obviously were/are not aware of) due to the huge wall of GOP Disinformation (JoeRogan & Barstool) that we Democrats cannot penetrate - we are mourning the loss of our nations democracy - yes we Democrats were fighting headwinds of inflation under which ALL INCUMBENT PARTIES LOSE (Truman, Carter, Bush Sr & now Biden) due to angry voters saying “throw the bums out” - but this was not a normal election for our country - for Groups H & J to ONLY focus on their wallets and either ignore all the negatives of Trump & Project 2025 & GOP (including racism & sexism) or not take the time to do a fucking Google search just really feels like they don’t care about our country which feels to us like not just betrayal of the Democratic Party but a betrayal of our very country - that’s what hurts