Has the Harris campaign hit a headwind or a ceiling? We discuss The New York Times/Siena poll, Liz and Dick Cheney's endorsement, stubborn Latino numbers and Kamala Harris hitting "The Bannon Line"
New subscriber following from twitter here. Mike I just don’t understand how it’s so close! Maybe I just have too much faith in my fellow Americans but seriously wtf is wrong with us. Thanks for your expertise I find it absolutely essential.
How much do the assumptions made in modeling the 2024 electorate matter? I get that Trump is holding with self-identified Republicans, but haven't a decent number of voters switched from Rep to Ind?
No we get those numbers from self identification of voters often from very large representative samples from firms like Gallup. Numbers of Republicans are actually up from 2016 as they are in states like California and Florida
Mike 2 things I noticed in Times/Sienna, 1) the candidate favorability ratings were way off 538's accumulated favorabilties of the candidates. In NYT, they were essentially tied at -6. In 538's aggregation Harris is very close to zero and Trump is close to -10. 2) These numbers of republican loyalty also seems quite a bit off aggregations. worst cases have been Trump losing 6%, here they say 98% of 2020 voters are back for trump. In addition to being out of the range of other pollsters, 98% seems kinda crazy....thoughts?
Yes that’s a little crazy…so is 94%. In fact, we’re kinda crazy determine which is more accurate 92-94% of Republicans coming back into Trumpville because both are worse than 2020 which is the point.
The problem is directional. The poll may be off +/-3 but we’re still worse than 2020 no matter how you slice it.
No the GOP hasnt shrunk. At least not from self identified respondents (which is how we determine such things). There’s no file of voters somewhere nationally that we can look at to say it’s bigger or smaller. Many states don’t register voters by party (Texas for example) so it’s all self identified - always has been. Those numbers are up from 2016
Thanks for answering Mike! Thats a great perspective. Much appreciated.
I am very thankful for these missives and your twitter page and it's great to have you involvement on the right side of this even without the same war chest you had in 2020.
Personally, I think the Harris campaign made a strategic error in avoiding interviews pre-debate.
She could have spoken with a vast array of friendly outlets, including Latino and Black media to penetrate the Trump fog of propaganda, and force legacy media to cover her focus on the middle-class and working-class.
Trump will always fill a vacuum, it doesn't matter if it's incoherent paddling or the rants of a proto-dictator. The stalling numbers were predictable, given that legacy media has no interest in policy, or informing the public of the realities of a dictatorship.
Maybe Harris will scrape by, but this is unsustainable. The country is essentially ungovernable without Democratic wins in all 3 branches...and that is not sustainable.
I agree. This IS unsustainable. It is great that first Biden and now Harris is taking the Dems in the right direction ... back to the center. But what is missing is an honest broker, Conservative party with actual ideological underpinnings. Without this, there is can be no balance. There can be no "center" when there is no good-faith actor on the other side. I have no idea how we get back to that. But until we do, we are fated to have an existential crisis with every election. Assuming, of course, that Harris does manage to "scrape by". And with Trump in the rearview mirror, there are still a lot of bad actors who are much smarter, waiting their turn. It will be harder, not easier to win. (Wow. That turned dark...)
How helpful will it be for Harris to start hitting the interview circuits weekly? Sitting down with ABC, NBC, independent social media influencers, even going on Joe Rogan, etc and just getting herself out there everywhere to make it almost impossible for less engaged voters to not know her.
This is tough for me to reconcile. On. The one hand, I trust what the quality polls say … more accurately, I trust what Mike Madrid says about the polls.
But on the other hand, when I listen to Maria Kumar talking about tangible success at connecting with young Latinos, it just doesn’t jive with the polls.
The allure of the anecdotal “high” sometimes makes it a challenge to, as any pilot would say, “… trust your aircraft’s instruments…”
Mike, Speaking of not having 30 mil like you did 4 years ago with the LP... Are you privy to what today's LP is doing are far as analytics? Obviously they are not as well funded as in 2020. I know things are much different today than 4 years ago, but I am curious nonetheless.
As long as you don't allow yourself to be paralyzed by it it's OK to be concerned. Use it as motivation...Take this is nothing more than the moment you knew was coming...a time to get focused and get to work
New subscriber following from twitter here. Mike I just don’t understand how it’s so close! Maybe I just have too much faith in my fellow Americans but seriously wtf is wrong with us. Thanks for your expertise I find it absolutely essential.
We need help doc!
How much do the assumptions made in modeling the 2024 electorate matter? I get that Trump is holding with self-identified Republicans, but haven't a decent number of voters switched from Rep to Ind?
No we get those numbers from self identification of voters often from very large representative samples from firms like Gallup. Numbers of Republicans are actually up from 2016 as they are in states like California and Florida
Agree and isn’t there Trump fatigue? Is this poll (all polls) reflective of a shrunken base of R voters?
Mike 2 things I noticed in Times/Sienna, 1) the candidate favorability ratings were way off 538's accumulated favorabilties of the candidates. In NYT, they were essentially tied at -6. In 538's aggregation Harris is very close to zero and Trump is close to -10. 2) These numbers of republican loyalty also seems quite a bit off aggregations. worst cases have been Trump losing 6%, here they say 98% of 2020 voters are back for trump. In addition to being out of the range of other pollsters, 98% seems kinda crazy....thoughts?
Yes that’s a little crazy…so is 94%. In fact, we’re kinda crazy determine which is more accurate 92-94% of Republicans coming back into Trumpville because both are worse than 2020 which is the point.
The problem is directional. The poll may be off +/-3 but we’re still worse than 2020 no matter how you slice it.
No the GOP hasnt shrunk. At least not from self identified respondents (which is how we determine such things). There’s no file of voters somewhere nationally that we can look at to say it’s bigger or smaller. Many states don’t register voters by party (Texas for example) so it’s all self identified - always has been. Those numbers are up from 2016
Thanks for answering Mike! Thats a great perspective. Much appreciated.
I am very thankful for these missives and your twitter page and it's great to have you involvement on the right side of this even without the same war chest you had in 2020.
Thanks Harvey - I appreciate you and thank you for fighting for democracy! lets get this done!
Personally, I think the Harris campaign made a strategic error in avoiding interviews pre-debate.
She could have spoken with a vast array of friendly outlets, including Latino and Black media to penetrate the Trump fog of propaganda, and force legacy media to cover her focus on the middle-class and working-class.
Trump will always fill a vacuum, it doesn't matter if it's incoherent paddling or the rants of a proto-dictator. The stalling numbers were predictable, given that legacy media has no interest in policy, or informing the public of the realities of a dictatorship.
Maybe Harris will scrape by, but this is unsustainable. The country is essentially ungovernable without Democratic wins in all 3 branches...and that is not sustainable.
I agree. This IS unsustainable. It is great that first Biden and now Harris is taking the Dems in the right direction ... back to the center. But what is missing is an honest broker, Conservative party with actual ideological underpinnings. Without this, there is can be no balance. There can be no "center" when there is no good-faith actor on the other side. I have no idea how we get back to that. But until we do, we are fated to have an existential crisis with every election. Assuming, of course, that Harris does manage to "scrape by". And with Trump in the rearview mirror, there are still a lot of bad actors who are much smarter, waiting their turn. It will be harder, not easier to win. (Wow. That turned dark...)
Love it... "... if you're watching this, you're not normal..." In my case, insightfully true. ;-)
How helpful will it be for Harris to start hitting the interview circuits weekly? Sitting down with ABC, NBC, independent social media influencers, even going on Joe Rogan, etc and just getting herself out there everywhere to make it almost impossible for less engaged voters to not know her.
This is tough for me to reconcile. On. The one hand, I trust what the quality polls say … more accurately, I trust what Mike Madrid says about the polls.
But on the other hand, when I listen to Maria Kumar talking about tangible success at connecting with young Latinos, it just doesn’t jive with the polls.
The allure of the anecdotal “high” sometimes makes it a challenge to, as any pilot would say, “… trust your aircraft’s instruments…”
Mike, Speaking of not having 30 mil like you did 4 years ago with the LP... Are you privy to what today's LP is doing are far as analytics? Obviously they are not as well funded as in 2020. I know things are much different today than 4 years ago, but I am curious nonetheless.
No im not unfortunately
thanks for your expertise. I am so worried…
As long as you don't allow yourself to be paralyzed by it it's OK to be concerned. Use it as motivation...Take this is nothing more than the moment you knew was coming...a time to get focused and get to work