Thank you for the update. You asked about length...too long, too short... I for one could listen to you talk about this stuff all day, so "too long" is not a thing. I appreciate whatever info and perspective you think is significant.
As to some topics for future discussion, I do have one. And, maybe this is getting ahead of where we are right now, being 49 days out, but I follow Matthew Taylor, and he as been posting for months about mobilization within the evangelical community to get operatives in place as election workers (vote counting) in battleground states. Perhaps, when you feel the time is right, you could share your perspective on the "steal the election" efforts in the works, and how we might prepare. One question I have is if a more decisive electoral college victory for Harris helps to inoculate against some of these efforts.
Thank you Mike, myself I will read/watch as much content as you can push out because I value your levelheaded approach and I will do my part to increase your reach. This update was illuminating; thank you for highlighting the percentage issue with new registrations. At this point I trust that the Harris campaign knows how to roll with the Trump campaign chaos. Everyone is pushing Trump's malignant mind pretty hard, calling him weak mocking him etc etc. Pushing him to the edge to respond with even more violent rhetoric. I agree pushing Trump to act out is a negative for him. But please can you advise on the violence aspect? Beyond violent rhetoric which ends up perceived as sheltered by 1st amendment, I'm counting on Biden admin being on top of violent actors and cutting them off at the pass. Is this hope not realistic?
I noticed when Biden was still in the race, all the coverage in the big newspapers (NYT, WaPo, etc) was heavily focused on his age, mental decline, etc. There was something like 80 articles on the NYT after the biden debate and before he dropped out. Also the NYT is kind of known now for writing these headlines like "This bad thing happened to trump, here's how this is bad news for biden (not harris)" that it's become a meme. It's pretty clear Trump has had a huge cognitive decline but there is nowhere near the same amount of negative headlines about his mental capacity. Why do you think this is? (my theory is all these giant papers are owned by billionaires who would benefit from a trump term where he cuts their taxes).
All of this may be true, I don’t know. My friend George Conway has spent the whole election cycle trying to drive media attention to it.
I do know we’ve come to accept his behavior as normal and there’s clearly a struggle between discerning what actions are a function of his mental decline and what is just Trump being Trump.
In other words - as Trump grows more senile, how can we actually tell?
Update on TargetSmart data: you CAN actually see the raw numbers. At the top left of the page there's a tab called 'National Map' which gives the 2024 voter registrations for each state and then you can combine this with the percentages in the 'Charts' tab.
Furthermore, there's a third tab called 'Target States' where you can see raw numbers 2024 voter registrations per congressional district in each of the 16 states designated as Target States
Thanks for the insight re TargetSmart have the raw numbers when it comes to voter registrations. Hope at least they are providing those to the right campaigns at least.
What I take from TargetSmart data is that at least the MINIMUM that needed to happen, i.e Dem/Dem leaning voters are registering enthusiastically and there's a bigger push and more success with this from Dem campaigns. This is like the first step.
There was already a significant Republican advantage in voter registration in the swing states
that built in the first half of the year, until Biden dropout. The gap is getting smaller but we will have to see if there's enough time left for Dems to close the gap or even reverse the advantage.
Such a great summary of where we're at -- I will share this with all my friends. What you said about the violence, yikes! You're not an alarmist AT ALL. I know you're not sensationalizing for clicks. It's not theoretical any longer. When you say this is serious and will get worse, I know I need to steel myself, prepare for crazy times and disruptions, and do everything I can to help get out the vote.
Sort of a tangent, but I just keep thinking how lucky we are that JD Vance is so awkward and unlikeable. Imagine where we'd be if he had, say, Reagan's charm, acting skills, and speech writers. Or AOC's charisma. Shudder!!!
What's hard to calibrate is the level of violence that can be expected. It's a wide variance of possibilities; but when convicted crazies can obtain AK-47's...
Thanks so much for the update on the race. I'm always up for more content, not less. Reliable sources on the state of the race are scarce as hen's teeth, so thanks.
The endless stream of drama around Trump isn't a distraction. It's an M.O. People need to understand that Trump and his drama are inseparable.
Interesting news about some polling starting to show an advantage for VP Harris on the economy. Frankly, I don't think the administration has gotten enough credit on that score. But IF voters are starting to move Harris's way on the economy, especially with a Fed rate cut expected shortly, it couldn't come at a better time.
Looking forward to hearing your take on the state of play here in NC. Found this to be an interesting article on North Carolina's political geography.
Hi Mike,
Thank you for the update. You asked about length...too long, too short... I for one could listen to you talk about this stuff all day, so "too long" is not a thing. I appreciate whatever info and perspective you think is significant.
As to some topics for future discussion, I do have one. And, maybe this is getting ahead of where we are right now, being 49 days out, but I follow Matthew Taylor, and he as been posting for months about mobilization within the evangelical community to get operatives in place as election workers (vote counting) in battleground states. Perhaps, when you feel the time is right, you could share your perspective on the "steal the election" efforts in the works, and how we might prepare. One question I have is if a more decisive electoral college victory for Harris helps to inoculate against some of these efforts.
Right--we could listen as long as Mike wants to talk
Thank you Mike, myself I will read/watch as much content as you can push out because I value your levelheaded approach and I will do my part to increase your reach. This update was illuminating; thank you for highlighting the percentage issue with new registrations. At this point I trust that the Harris campaign knows how to roll with the Trump campaign chaos. Everyone is pushing Trump's malignant mind pretty hard, calling him weak mocking him etc etc. Pushing him to the edge to respond with even more violent rhetoric. I agree pushing Trump to act out is a negative for him. But please can you advise on the violence aspect? Beyond violent rhetoric which ends up perceived as sheltered by 1st amendment, I'm counting on Biden admin being on top of violent actors and cutting them off at the pass. Is this hope not realistic?
Hi Mike,
I noticed when Biden was still in the race, all the coverage in the big newspapers (NYT, WaPo, etc) was heavily focused on his age, mental decline, etc. There was something like 80 articles on the NYT after the biden debate and before he dropped out. Also the NYT is kind of known now for writing these headlines like "This bad thing happened to trump, here's how this is bad news for biden (not harris)" that it's become a meme. It's pretty clear Trump has had a huge cognitive decline but there is nowhere near the same amount of negative headlines about his mental capacity. Why do you think this is? (my theory is all these giant papers are owned by billionaires who would benefit from a trump term where he cuts their taxes).
Hi Max
All of this may be true, I don’t know. My friend George Conway has spent the whole election cycle trying to drive media attention to it.
I do know we’ve come to accept his behavior as normal and there’s clearly a struggle between discerning what actions are a function of his mental decline and what is just Trump being Trump.
In other words - as Trump grows more senile, how can we actually tell?
Again, thank you for all of this content.
I would love to see a video overview of competitive Senate seats. Also, Any Texas insights you have.
Update on TargetSmart data: you CAN actually see the raw numbers. At the top left of the page there's a tab called 'National Map' which gives the 2024 voter registrations for each state and then you can combine this with the percentages in the 'Charts' tab.
Furthermore, there's a third tab called 'Target States' where you can see raw numbers 2024 voter registrations per congressional district in each of the 16 states designated as Target States
Thanks for the insight re TargetSmart have the raw numbers when it comes to voter registrations. Hope at least they are providing those to the right campaigns at least.
What I take from TargetSmart data is that at least the MINIMUM that needed to happen, i.e Dem/Dem leaning voters are registering enthusiastically and there's a bigger push and more success with this from Dem campaigns. This is like the first step.
There was already a significant Republican advantage in voter registration in the swing states
that built in the first half of the year, until Biden dropout. The gap is getting smaller but we will have to see if there's enough time left for Dems to close the gap or even reverse the advantage.
Such a great summary of where we're at -- I will share this with all my friends. What you said about the violence, yikes! You're not an alarmist AT ALL. I know you're not sensationalizing for clicks. It's not theoretical any longer. When you say this is serious and will get worse, I know I need to steel myself, prepare for crazy times and disruptions, and do everything I can to help get out the vote.
Sort of a tangent, but I just keep thinking how lucky we are that JD Vance is so awkward and unlikeable. Imagine where we'd be if he had, say, Reagan's charm, acting skills, and speech writers. Or AOC's charisma. Shudder!!!
I think 12-15 minutes is perfect.
What's hard to calibrate is the level of violence that can be expected. It's a wide variance of possibilities; but when convicted crazies can obtain AK-47's...
Thanks so much for the update on the race. I'm always up for more content, not less. Reliable sources on the state of the race are scarce as hen's teeth, so thanks.
The endless stream of drama around Trump isn't a distraction. It's an M.O. People need to understand that Trump and his drama are inseparable.
Interesting news about some polling starting to show an advantage for VP Harris on the economy. Frankly, I don't think the administration has gotten enough credit on that score. But IF voters are starting to move Harris's way on the economy, especially with a Fed rate cut expected shortly, it couldn't come at a better time.
Looking forward to hearing your take on the state of play here in NC. Found this to be an interesting article on North Carolina's political geography.
https://carolinaforward.org/blog/political-geography-changing-nc/?emci=f58a5a9c-3474-ef11-991a-6045bda8aae9&emdi=a083cd48-3874-ef11-991a-6045bda8aae9&ceid=19599464