Really important point, if I'm interpreting it correctly, that Latinos are not becoming more conservative, but that they didn't believe that Democrats were addressing their economic issues. Is that the main takeaway here?
None of this polling surprises me. Those are the same issues that most voters identified as their main concerns. It still doesn't explain why Latinos or any other working class voters thought Trump would be better at delivering relief on those issues. I also wonder how those voters feel now that Trump has decidedly - and quickly - walked away from his pledge to bring down grocery prices and has never, to my knowledge, addressed the affordable housing shortage as Harris did.
I don't get why people thought a billionaire promising tax cuts for other billionaires was viewed as someone with the little guy in mind.
Jane - I think a lot of folks were willing to roll the dice on that. Their most recent/current experience was that Dems weren't getting the job done fast enough re: inflation. I'm not saying that's my sense, nor that it's objectively true but many people vote on their perceptions, even when those are not extremely informed by meta-data on economy
I agree with you on that, J AZ. The troubling part for me is that they knew who they were rolling the dice on - and per usual, once the campaign was over, he immediately started back pedaling on all his promised claims to lower inflation, grocery prices, mortgage interest rates, you name it. But it's the DEMS who haven't delivered? That turns all logic and common sense on its head. Even the Fed is showing its lack of confidence in the incoming administration because of Trump's inflationary policies like indiscriminate tariffs. Makes zero sense.
Hi Jane- I can empathize with your frustration, but I think you are assuming that your average working class voter is paying as close attention to everything in the same way that you do. Most listen to the headlines (which are probably coming from Fox or A.M. radio), take that as the face value "truth" and move on with their incredibly busy days and everyday worries. Also, depending on what media they are consuming or influencers they are listening to, their knowledge of who they think Trump is not necessarily the same version you hold, so them rolling the dice for him is not the same as what your perspective of rolling the dice is. Trump was the change agent for them, and that is what they voted for. Also, I doubt that they have any idea that the back peddling is even happening. They aren't on substack, watching anyone political on TikTok or even watching Kristen Welker's interview. I feel pretty secure in saying that like most citizens, they are unfamiliar with what the Fed is and what the cuts mean also.
You're probably right on the details, Linda, but you don't have to be especially well-informed to know that Donald Trump is a serial liar and a criminal. His record the last time he was in office speaks for itself. The idea that HE was the acceptable alternative roll the dice on is gob-smacking. I come from a working class background myself, so it blows my mind that working class folks vote for people who couldn't care less what happens to them.
The GOP delivered $8 TRILLION of inflationary debt with Borrow and SPend insanity to pay for the tax cuts they demand but cannot pay for. And they gave us 15% TRUMP unemployment, endless wars, and lot of needless civilian death due to Covid and vaccine disinformation. And Trump is about to add $4 TRILLION more to extend the tax cuts (probaly, like last time, the ONLY thing he accomplished) and will drive up unemployment and debt with tariffs. No wonder New Yorkers refer to Donny Convict as the Casino Genius.
No, this vote was all about MAGA torching idiot progressives for mandating pronouns, men in women's sport (all 10 of them) and idiotic terms like "Latinx." The Democrats should have said "not our issue" and focused on the broad identity politicas group know as "voters." Trans insanity only gets you a handful of votes. But the Democrats have along themselves to be hijacked by activisits who demand EVERYTHING in return for a limited number of votes. The DNC should have said, that is a local issue. We are not taking a side.
I think you're giving way too much influence to progressives. The majority of Democrats are moderates. Pronouns have not been mandated anywhere by anyone to my knowledge; as you point out, trans athletes are as much of a legitimate problem as immigrants eating cats and dogs, which you'll note we haven't heard a peep about since election day. I don't pretend to understand what it's like to be trans, but I don't have to understand trans people to think they deserve basic human rights, not least respect.
The perception among non-Democrats is that they have way too much influence on the party. The vibe is that these people who are out of touch are mandating cultural and bilogical changes, and bathroom changes, that the average person is not on board with. Of course we have not heard a peep about them, because the issue was used by the GOP to swing votes. Trump rans hundreds of thousands of ads to people you probably never met and which you probably never saw. I could care less what anyone does or whatever their sexual orientation is or what your peccadillos are. It is a private matter - keep it to yourself. Don't mandate society make major adjustments.
No matter how anyone feels as individuals, the DNC should have NEVER allowed this to be a political issue for them to fall on their sword. There are not enough votes and being forced to defend a tiny percentage of people out of purity and piety has brought us a return of Tangerine Caligula - who got 30% of the eligible voters and 35% of the eleigible voters chose to not cast a ballot for Harris. I am sure Trump saturing the feeds with adds that that say "Harris stands with They/Them while Trump stands with YOU" conviced a few dupes to vote for him. THIS SHOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN AN ISSUE.
Perception isn't reality. Too many people have fallen for right-wing propaganda about the scope, numbers and influence of progressives on the Democratic Party. As far as I know, the DNC doesn't have an official position on trans people, per se, aside from protecting their constitutional rights to equal protection under the law - the same position they take on the rest of the LGBT community. Personally, I find scapegoating to be repugnant.
It seems to me that IF the Democrats can get their heads out of the sand and see the trust problem for what it is, this trust is going to have to be rebuilt from the ground up starting at the local level. We need to clone at least 50 Ruben Gallegos and set them loose in every state.
Jim - I really like Gallego. I live way south of his house district; sooo glad I finally got to vote for guy!
No question there are MORE than 50 men & women with his characteristics & qualities; not sure about in EVERY state tho (Alaska? N Dakota?). The catch is, how to motivate persons with such values & character to enter politics, especially with the past both parties have to overcome (not saying parties are equivalent - as Mike alluded in his article, they have different ways of making voters question their sincerity)
I agree with both of you. Like Jim says, t's going to take some excellent grassroots organizing to elevate excellent candidates in our communities. I do think that they are in every state, but you are right J AZ, motivating them may be tricky. And then supporting them financially will also be tricky. But people are resourceful.
Thanks, Mike! I think it's great that you and Binder did your own post-poll. Smart move. Get that data together and gather it in a way that we know is correct and not junkified (because you were behind it!) in order to speak the language of consultants. Keep hammering it home! Thank you for your voice and doing what you do, always.
I expect Republicans will be viewed quite differently in 2028 on the affordability issue. Certainly in 2026, becuz short-term outlook doesn't seem significantly rosier than 2024 from anything I'm seeing (but many folks pass on voting mid-terms).
The economics these next few years will be hung on the Republicans in the eyes of these voters ( less-studious on overall econ, mostly focused on their own monthly bills & income), so they may flip back if all Republicans deliver is chaos + tax cuts for the wealthy.
It does mean though that there is nothing to compare to though. We don't know the baseline of affordability concerns in a non-inflationaty time. Not that I in any way disagree with your findings, I think you are spot on. We just have to look at Carter to see how far right the public swings when a Democrat presides over an inflationary economy.
Immigration rated only above climate change and nearly 20 points lower than the price of everything. This is right in line with your comments from an earlier post showing that white, educated, wealthy democrats thought they knew better than the “LatinX” community and pushed the focus on immigration.
As a child of immigrants you need to be careful pushing an immigration agenda. This immigrants who were blessed to come to this country through the proper, approved channels, will almost always oppose allowing other immigrants to join without going through the same process. It’s a two edged sword that as your poll indicates, isn’t close to being a top priority. Well done Mike.
Excellent point, Marc. When you follow the rules and emigrate legally, it is super butt chapping to have illegal immigrants come through and benefit from a system without playing by the rules. We have people in our adopted family (past foreign exchange students) who took both routes- can speak with first-hand observations regarding this.
Knowing affordability is the defining issue, not entirely sure how Biden/Harris could have messaged this one after COVID shock. I think what also hurt them were chaos at the border and bad advice from progressive groups such as student debt forgiveness. Finally, Dems cannot expect big numbers in the cities if they continue to be governed so poorly by the extremely left city councils.
I agree, Tai. Border chaos was awful, and the student debt forgiveness was kinda like Marc's point on immigration. People who scrimped and saved and sacrificed to go to college get a little sideways when others get school debt forgiveness and were careless with their finances. I do like that it looks like the new norm will be to raise the threshold of free tuition at state universities for those from families making less than a certain amount- it'll be $100k next year for TX, which is up from $65k in the past. The left leaning city councils will continue to lose support if they aren't fiscally responsible with taxpayer money or make poor decisions that threaten small businesses.
Your polling suggests the 2024 vote will be a one time thing. Since Latinos voted on the price of everything and republicans will make those prices worse.
housing costs are obscene - my house increased 75% during pandemic and god knows how anybody could afford to buy in now but lower housing prices and you destroy current homeowners' equity.
Nobody had a great plan to make housing affordable but at least Harris had something - Trump just said defer to existing suburbs and their zoning to keep out newcomers or more affordable housing.
While Latinos leaving the democratic party doesn't necessarily mean they're joining the republicans, what I saw with North Carolina analysis is whites' leaving the dems was the 1st step for turning them into permanent republicans, whose leadership worked their butts off to make it happen
Millions of people voted for Trump because of the price of eggs, and come 2026 all they will have for it are tax cuts for billionaires and continual acts of performative hate for people like these Latino voters.
Thank you Mike! As others have stated. Really informative and very nuanced. Biden/Harris have great job numbers to brag about. The problem is as you mentioned that jobs wasn’t the issue. Everyone is working, playing by the rules, and they’re still just barely able to get by if at all. And that’s a big part of what’s got voters so angry. Things are just too expensive.
Add onto that a lot of Democratic Party activists mocking the price of eggs as no big deal. You really started to see, I think, the educational and class divide in voters play out in real life. Many of us college educated folks rolled our eyes at people complaining at the price of eggs. Meanwhile, cost of living has been a real issue hurting millions of people. Us democrats asking them to look past that was just came off as out of touch and condescending.
Before Harris came on. It sometimes felt like progressive activists were more concerned about policing language and identity hierarchies than actually speaking to/taking action on the very real affordability issues crushing the nation.
To continue. I think you really see how out of touch the Democratic Party base can be when you look at things like us laughing off the price eggs while joining in outrage because the Barbie movie only got 8 Oscar nominations rather than 9. And claimed it was proof of nationwide sexism. Our priorities are off. I know that probably seems out of left field but I think it’s a perfect embodiment of how identity politics has damaged the Democratic Party.
One last thought. I hope Harris leads this fight to change our party to a working class message over an identity politics message. They can’t write her off as racist, sexist, and privileged. They’ll be forced to face the merits of her argument.
This polling is all well and good, but what use is it if no solutions are proposed to achieve the much-needed improvements for a higher quality of life? The Republican Party is not going to save the working class. Trump has already stated that it’s difficult to lower prices once they have risen. The GOP does not seem to care about the overall American population. While some members of the Republican Party may genuinely want to help their constituents, many are more focused on maintaining power, controlling the narrative, and filling their own pockets.
Really important point, if I'm interpreting it correctly, that Latinos are not becoming more conservative, but that they didn't believe that Democrats were addressing their economic issues. Is that the main takeaway here?
Yessir
Seems to be THE defining issue for Democrats. Republicans will scream "socialism" and I think we just need to get over that...
None of this polling surprises me. Those are the same issues that most voters identified as their main concerns. It still doesn't explain why Latinos or any other working class voters thought Trump would be better at delivering relief on those issues. I also wonder how those voters feel now that Trump has decidedly - and quickly - walked away from his pledge to bring down grocery prices and has never, to my knowledge, addressed the affordable housing shortage as Harris did.
I don't get why people thought a billionaire promising tax cuts for other billionaires was viewed as someone with the little guy in mind.
It’s about the failure of Democrats to deliver over three decades. They’re not believable anymore.
And the GOP is???
Jane - I think a lot of folks were willing to roll the dice on that. Their most recent/current experience was that Dems weren't getting the job done fast enough re: inflation. I'm not saying that's my sense, nor that it's objectively true but many people vote on their perceptions, even when those are not extremely informed by meta-data on economy
I agree with you on that, J AZ. The troubling part for me is that they knew who they were rolling the dice on - and per usual, once the campaign was over, he immediately started back pedaling on all his promised claims to lower inflation, grocery prices, mortgage interest rates, you name it. But it's the DEMS who haven't delivered? That turns all logic and common sense on its head. Even the Fed is showing its lack of confidence in the incoming administration because of Trump's inflationary policies like indiscriminate tariffs. Makes zero sense.
Hi Jane- I can empathize with your frustration, but I think you are assuming that your average working class voter is paying as close attention to everything in the same way that you do. Most listen to the headlines (which are probably coming from Fox or A.M. radio), take that as the face value "truth" and move on with their incredibly busy days and everyday worries. Also, depending on what media they are consuming or influencers they are listening to, their knowledge of who they think Trump is not necessarily the same version you hold, so them rolling the dice for him is not the same as what your perspective of rolling the dice is. Trump was the change agent for them, and that is what they voted for. Also, I doubt that they have any idea that the back peddling is even happening. They aren't on substack, watching anyone political on TikTok or even watching Kristen Welker's interview. I feel pretty secure in saying that like most citizens, they are unfamiliar with what the Fed is and what the cuts mean also.
You're probably right on the details, Linda, but you don't have to be especially well-informed to know that Donald Trump is a serial liar and a criminal. His record the last time he was in office speaks for itself. The idea that HE was the acceptable alternative roll the dice on is gob-smacking. I come from a working class background myself, so it blows my mind that working class folks vote for people who couldn't care less what happens to them.
The GOP delivered $8 TRILLION of inflationary debt with Borrow and SPend insanity to pay for the tax cuts they demand but cannot pay for. And they gave us 15% TRUMP unemployment, endless wars, and lot of needless civilian death due to Covid and vaccine disinformation. And Trump is about to add $4 TRILLION more to extend the tax cuts (probaly, like last time, the ONLY thing he accomplished) and will drive up unemployment and debt with tariffs. No wonder New Yorkers refer to Donny Convict as the Casino Genius.
No, this vote was all about MAGA torching idiot progressives for mandating pronouns, men in women's sport (all 10 of them) and idiotic terms like "Latinx." The Democrats should have said "not our issue" and focused on the broad identity politicas group know as "voters." Trans insanity only gets you a handful of votes. But the Democrats have along themselves to be hijacked by activisits who demand EVERYTHING in return for a limited number of votes. The DNC should have said, that is a local issue. We are not taking a side.
I think you're giving way too much influence to progressives. The majority of Democrats are moderates. Pronouns have not been mandated anywhere by anyone to my knowledge; as you point out, trans athletes are as much of a legitimate problem as immigrants eating cats and dogs, which you'll note we haven't heard a peep about since election day. I don't pretend to understand what it's like to be trans, but I don't have to understand trans people to think they deserve basic human rights, not least respect.
The perception among non-Democrats is that they have way too much influence on the party. The vibe is that these people who are out of touch are mandating cultural and bilogical changes, and bathroom changes, that the average person is not on board with. Of course we have not heard a peep about them, because the issue was used by the GOP to swing votes. Trump rans hundreds of thousands of ads to people you probably never met and which you probably never saw. I could care less what anyone does or whatever their sexual orientation is or what your peccadillos are. It is a private matter - keep it to yourself. Don't mandate society make major adjustments.
No matter how anyone feels as individuals, the DNC should have NEVER allowed this to be a political issue for them to fall on their sword. There are not enough votes and being forced to defend a tiny percentage of people out of purity and piety has brought us a return of Tangerine Caligula - who got 30% of the eligible voters and 35% of the eleigible voters chose to not cast a ballot for Harris. I am sure Trump saturing the feeds with adds that that say "Harris stands with They/Them while Trump stands with YOU" conviced a few dupes to vote for him. THIS SHOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN AN ISSUE.
Unless people just like to LOSE Elections.
Perception isn't reality. Too many people have fallen for right-wing propaganda about the scope, numbers and influence of progressives on the Democratic Party. As far as I know, the DNC doesn't have an official position on trans people, per se, aside from protecting their constitutional rights to equal protection under the law - the same position they take on the rest of the LGBT community. Personally, I find scapegoating to be repugnant.
Seems to me that people are just blaming everything wrong in their lives on the party in power, and this election it just happened to be Democrats.
It seems to me that IF the Democrats can get their heads out of the sand and see the trust problem for what it is, this trust is going to have to be rebuilt from the ground up starting at the local level. We need to clone at least 50 Ruben Gallegos and set them loose in every state.
Jim - I really like Gallego. I live way south of his house district; sooo glad I finally got to vote for guy!
No question there are MORE than 50 men & women with his characteristics & qualities; not sure about in EVERY state tho (Alaska? N Dakota?). The catch is, how to motivate persons with such values & character to enter politics, especially with the past both parties have to overcome (not saying parties are equivalent - as Mike alluded in his article, they have different ways of making voters question their sincerity)
I agree with both of you. Like Jim says, t's going to take some excellent grassroots organizing to elevate excellent candidates in our communities. I do think that they are in every state, but you are right J AZ, motivating them may be tricky. And then supporting them financially will also be tricky. But people are resourceful.
Thanks, Mike! I think it's great that you and Binder did your own post-poll. Smart move. Get that data together and gather it in a way that we know is correct and not junkified (because you were behind it!) in order to speak the language of consultants. Keep hammering it home! Thank you for your voice and doing what you do, always.
Very informative post! Thank you, Mike.
I expect Republicans will be viewed quite differently in 2028 on the affordability issue. Certainly in 2026, becuz short-term outlook doesn't seem significantly rosier than 2024 from anything I'm seeing (but many folks pass on voting mid-terms).
The economics these next few years will be hung on the Republicans in the eyes of these voters ( less-studious on overall econ, mostly focused on their own monthly bills & income), so they may flip back if all Republicans deliver is chaos + tax cuts for the wealthy.
Is “affordability” a usual poll question? Or is it a relatively new question?
It’s new. The economic issue has almost always been jobs. No longer.
It does mean though that there is nothing to compare to though. We don't know the baseline of affordability concerns in a non-inflationaty time. Not that I in any way disagree with your findings, I think you are spot on. We just have to look at Carter to see how far right the public swings when a Democrat presides over an inflationary economy.
Immigration rated only above climate change and nearly 20 points lower than the price of everything. This is right in line with your comments from an earlier post showing that white, educated, wealthy democrats thought they knew better than the “LatinX” community and pushed the focus on immigration.
As a child of immigrants you need to be careful pushing an immigration agenda. This immigrants who were blessed to come to this country through the proper, approved channels, will almost always oppose allowing other immigrants to join without going through the same process. It’s a two edged sword that as your poll indicates, isn’t close to being a top priority. Well done Mike.
Excellent point, Marc. When you follow the rules and emigrate legally, it is super butt chapping to have illegal immigrants come through and benefit from a system without playing by the rules. We have people in our adopted family (past foreign exchange students) who took both routes- can speak with first-hand observations regarding this.
Knowing affordability is the defining issue, not entirely sure how Biden/Harris could have messaged this one after COVID shock. I think what also hurt them were chaos at the border and bad advice from progressive groups such as student debt forgiveness. Finally, Dems cannot expect big numbers in the cities if they continue to be governed so poorly by the extremely left city councils.
I agree, Tai. Border chaos was awful, and the student debt forgiveness was kinda like Marc's point on immigration. People who scrimped and saved and sacrificed to go to college get a little sideways when others get school debt forgiveness and were careless with their finances. I do like that it looks like the new norm will be to raise the threshold of free tuition at state universities for those from families making less than a certain amount- it'll be $100k next year for TX, which is up from $65k in the past. The left leaning city councils will continue to lose support if they aren't fiscally responsible with taxpayer money or make poor decisions that threaten small businesses.
Your polling suggests the 2024 vote will be a one time thing. Since Latinos voted on the price of everything and republicans will make those prices worse.
housing costs are obscene - my house increased 75% during pandemic and god knows how anybody could afford to buy in now but lower housing prices and you destroy current homeowners' equity.
Nobody had a great plan to make housing affordable but at least Harris had something - Trump just said defer to existing suburbs and their zoning to keep out newcomers or more affordable housing.
While Latinos leaving the democratic party doesn't necessarily mean they're joining the republicans, what I saw with North Carolina analysis is whites' leaving the dems was the 1st step for turning them into permanent republicans, whose leadership worked their butts off to make it happen
Millions of people voted for Trump because of the price of eggs, and come 2026 all they will have for it are tax cuts for billionaires and continual acts of performative hate for people like these Latino voters.
Thank you Mike! As others have stated. Really informative and very nuanced. Biden/Harris have great job numbers to brag about. The problem is as you mentioned that jobs wasn’t the issue. Everyone is working, playing by the rules, and they’re still just barely able to get by if at all. And that’s a big part of what’s got voters so angry. Things are just too expensive.
Add onto that a lot of Democratic Party activists mocking the price of eggs as no big deal. You really started to see, I think, the educational and class divide in voters play out in real life. Many of us college educated folks rolled our eyes at people complaining at the price of eggs. Meanwhile, cost of living has been a real issue hurting millions of people. Us democrats asking them to look past that was just came off as out of touch and condescending.
Before Harris came on. It sometimes felt like progressive activists were more concerned about policing language and identity hierarchies than actually speaking to/taking action on the very real affordability issues crushing the nation.
To continue. I think you really see how out of touch the Democratic Party base can be when you look at things like us laughing off the price eggs while joining in outrage because the Barbie movie only got 8 Oscar nominations rather than 9. And claimed it was proof of nationwide sexism. Our priorities are off. I know that probably seems out of left field but I think it’s a perfect embodiment of how identity politics has damaged the Democratic Party.
One last thought. I hope Harris leads this fight to change our party to a working class message over an identity politics message. They can’t write her off as racist, sexist, and privileged. They’ll be forced to face the merits of her argument.
This polling is all well and good, but what use is it if no solutions are proposed to achieve the much-needed improvements for a higher quality of life? The Republican Party is not going to save the working class. Trump has already stated that it’s difficult to lower prices once they have risen. The GOP does not seem to care about the overall American population. While some members of the Republican Party may genuinely want to help their constituents, many are more focused on maintaining power, controlling the narrative, and filling their own pockets.