Harris continues to gain traction in battleground polls today, with Fox News and Morning Consult showing Kamala gaining ground. However, there is still some softness among key voter groups.
Thanks, Mike, for letting us peek behind the campaign curtain. Fascinating. Hope your listeners find your data points on non maga republicans so that you can sleuth away. My take away- in polls focus on the forest (and which way the wind blows) instead of the trees, leaners are better in horseshoes than in polls, and an aha moment in understanding tracking polls and when/how they provide value in a campaign.
Terrific episode. Gracias, Mike! Have heard you talk about MOVEMENT so this pod really helped understand your thinking. How to spot the push of Undecideds; how Tracking polls work - so helpful for us "civilians." 🙂
Thank you as well for forgiveness of my doom scrolling, which you make a good point - why waste much time on that when I need to stay motivated and be OUT WORKING for the results I want to see? Slow down to gawk at the wreck, then get back on pedal to the metal till Nov. 5!
So many interesting results, but I have a particular question about the favorables/unfavorables section. Harris's favorables are great, but I notice she has high unfavorables relative to Obama and Sanders. I worry that that will keep too many young people from voting.
Counterbalancing that, perhaps, Walz has the lowest unfavorables of anyone, even Obama. Maybe its's just that there were more "don't knows" for him because he's the newest on the scene, but also who could hate on Coach Walz? :-)
Another great Mike Drop. Thanks, Mike! My takeaways: look for movement, watch for candidates hitting 50%, look out for leaners. Don't sweat the daily polling averages. I, for one, would like to see a Mike Madrid tracking poll. Awesome idea.
Mike, Looking at just the total of the percentages in a poll, is there a definitive cutoff point below which you can say that leaners were *not* included?
Thank you Mike good one. As you requested I looked for nonMAGA R crosstabs for Morning Consult & Fox polls but no joy. Both data are behind paywalls. Hope someone else can come through!
She is the local TV, late night, low rent imitation of Trump. She thinks she can run his act but people see she's NOT the same. Think of any successful TV show, where another network tries to copy the formula the next TV season... usually a Fail and a cancellation after a few weeks. That's Kari, but somewhere she's getting money to keep the dead horse running - and that source of her financing would be the REAL story.
Enjoy your Substacks. So helpful and clearly stated.
Thank you Nancy 🙏🏼
Thanks, Mike, for letting us peek behind the campaign curtain. Fascinating. Hope your listeners find your data points on non maga republicans so that you can sleuth away. My take away- in polls focus on the forest (and which way the wind blows) instead of the trees, leaners are better in horseshoes than in polls, and an aha moment in understanding tracking polls and when/how they provide value in a campaign.
Wow Mike. No other comment, but your closing really made me smile. Sort of reminds me of "Crazy Eddy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTIfUnfZSrM
Terrific episode. Gracias, Mike! Have heard you talk about MOVEMENT so this pod really helped understand your thinking. How to spot the push of Undecideds; how Tracking polls work - so helpful for us "civilians." 🙂
Thank you as well for forgiveness of my doom scrolling, which you make a good point - why waste much time on that when I need to stay motivated and be OUT WORKING for the results I want to see? Slow down to gawk at the wreck, then get back on pedal to the metal till Nov. 5!
Mike, maybe you already talked about it and I missed it, but what do you think of the Harvard Youth poll?
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/48th-edition-fall-2024
So many interesting results, but I have a particular question about the favorables/unfavorables section. Harris's favorables are great, but I notice she has high unfavorables relative to Obama and Sanders. I worry that that will keep too many young people from voting.
Counterbalancing that, perhaps, Walz has the lowest unfavorables of anyone, even Obama. Maybe its's just that there were more "don't knows" for him because he's the newest on the scene, but also who could hate on Coach Walz? :-)
Another great Mike Drop. Thanks, Mike! My takeaways: look for movement, watch for candidates hitting 50%, look out for leaners. Don't sweat the daily polling averages. I, for one, would like to see a Mike Madrid tracking poll. Awesome idea.
Mike, Looking at just the total of the percentages in a poll, is there a definitive cutoff point below which you can say that leaners were *not* included?
Mike always teaching us. Thank you
Thank you Mike good one. As you requested I looked for nonMAGA R crosstabs for Morning Consult & Fox polls but no joy. Both data are behind paywalls. Hope someone else can come through!
Gratitude.
Would love to see rolling data of the polls. I swear I saw comprehensive analysis of polls over time in 2020, but I can't find it this cycle.
Two words: Kari Lake.
She is the local TV, late night, low rent imitation of Trump. She thinks she can run his act but people see she's NOT the same. Think of any successful TV show, where another network tries to copy the formula the next TV season... usually a Fail and a cancellation after a few weeks. That's Kari, but somewhere she's getting money to keep the dead horse running - and that source of her financing would be the REAL story.
Kari Lake is the Mark Robinson of AZ.