Is there a meaningful difference between polls that interview likely voters versus registered voters? Which ones carry more weight? Thanks for the analysis. I haven't heard anyone talking about directionality before, but it makes perfect sense.
Another good question. “Likely voters” are those voters that have a greater history or “propensity” to show up and vote. We determine this by peoples voting record - we don’t know ‘how’ you voted but it is public information ‘that’ you voted.
The more often the vote, the more ‘likely’ you are to vote again and there’s a measurable difference between ‘likely’ voters who vote regularly and those who are simply registered and maybe leaven voted or vote infrequently.
Theres a whole strategy to determine what constitutes a ‘likely’ voter. It’s very important because it will affect the outcome of a poll. How you define a ‘likely’ voter is a guess - an educated one- but still a guess. The better the guess the more accurate your poll results
Thanks for that great explanation. If I understand you correctly, the polls we should pay more attention to, then, are those that sample likely voters. It gets confusing reading different polls, especially when we aren't comparing apples to apples. That there's no universal agreement on what constitutes a likely voter is probably why polling is a business unto itself.
This is why I advise people to watch the polls movement. Watch the broader direction of the polls and don’t look at any one for much more than a data point. A poll taken last Friday isn’t worth much other than to consider it as a marker for where public opinion was and where it is now.
Try to look at a poll that way if you must watch polls. Remind yourself it will just be a step in a direction in a few days and all you’re doing is looking at the direction. It’s not much more than that at this point.
Thank you for expanding on your poll tweets! When good news comes from you, I know it's worth celebrating. I've followed you from platform to platform (podcasts, Twitter, Call In, Patreon...you move around a lot, Mike!) because I so appreciate your honest, expert perspective. Thank you!
Is there a meaningful difference between polls that interview likely voters versus registered voters? Which ones carry more weight? Thanks for the analysis. I haven't heard anyone talking about directionality before, but it makes perfect sense.
Another good question. “Likely voters” are those voters that have a greater history or “propensity” to show up and vote. We determine this by peoples voting record - we don’t know ‘how’ you voted but it is public information ‘that’ you voted.
The more often the vote, the more ‘likely’ you are to vote again and there’s a measurable difference between ‘likely’ voters who vote regularly and those who are simply registered and maybe leaven voted or vote infrequently.
Theres a whole strategy to determine what constitutes a ‘likely’ voter. It’s very important because it will affect the outcome of a poll. How you define a ‘likely’ voter is a guess - an educated one- but still a guess. The better the guess the more accurate your poll results
Thanks for that great explanation. If I understand you correctly, the polls we should pay more attention to, then, are those that sample likely voters. It gets confusing reading different polls, especially when we aren't comparing apples to apples. That there's no universal agreement on what constitutes a likely voter is probably why polling is a business unto itself.
Congrats on the substack. Glad I found my here.
This is why I advise people to watch the polls movement. Watch the broader direction of the polls and don’t look at any one for much more than a data point. A poll taken last Friday isn’t worth much other than to consider it as a marker for where public opinion was and where it is now.
Try to look at a poll that way if you must watch polls. Remind yourself it will just be a step in a direction in a few days and all you’re doing is looking at the direction. It’s not much more than that at this point.
Great advice. Thanks for taking the time to explain this.
Thank you for expanding on your poll tweets! When good news comes from you, I know it's worth celebrating. I've followed you from platform to platform (podcasts, Twitter, Call In, Patreon...you move around a lot, Mike!) because I so appreciate your honest, expert perspective. Thank you!
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Yikes! Thank you!