The decade long slide of Latino voters isn't going to stop with a few consultants and pollsters being fired. Democrats need a complete overhaul in how they understand and approach Latino voters.
I'm struggling to understand the logic behind 'the Democrats need a Latino vote autopsy' when the republicans' 2012 autopsy was done but never implemented. I'm not against doing a thorough autopsy of what went wrong in this election. That's useful information the Democrats can use to do better next time. I also can't overlook the fact that when Democrats talk about doing anything for Latino voters, or Black voters or women voters, they get accused of playing 'identity politics.'
I'm also struggling with the claim that republicans have focused on economic issues and not immigration when all the republicans , especially Trump, and right-leaning media have been talking about every election cycle are 'the caravans!' and 'illegals invading our country through the southern border.' Mass deportations and import tariffs have been Trump's two major issues this cycle. His tax plan is based on giving billionaires and big corporations tax cuts. The Harris campaign focused on working and middle-class tax cuts, child tax credits, child care tax credits, new homeowners' tax credits, and going after price gouging on groceries.
I don’t think you’re missing anything. I think the discussion has to be had. Harris was making adjustments the party desperately needed to make after 15 years of losing voters.
You’re only missing it if you’re saying Democrats did everything right. If that’s what you’re saying well….
That wasn't AT ALL what I was saying. I was asking in good faith. Pretty sure I said a post-election review, or autopsy, is a good idea, proving valuable information we can learn from. What I think I'm missing are the issues that are important to Latino voters which were not being proposed by Harris but apparently were by Trump? That's the disconnect I'm struggling with. Along with the convicted felon as president, and a bunch of other things that apparently don't mean anything anymore? I am seriously, genuinely asking.
Working class people are struggling with affordability. Their purchasing power has decreased by nearly 30% during the Biden years. Housing costs are up dramatically. Biden himself said yesterday the effects of most of his policies won’t be felt for years.
Only 20% of Latinos said the economy was ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ in the NYT Latino poll before the election. That’s horrible.
Same poll had Latinos saying Democrats “Are the party that understands people like me” but also don’t believe that “voting for Democrats will improve my life”
As a prominent Democratic consultant told me this morning “Democrats don’t have a Latino problem, Latinos have a Democrat problem”
Well, if we're talking about a communication issue, I'm 100% in agreement. Democrats have historically been lousy at whatever you want to call it, blowing their own horn, bragging on their accomplishments, telling how their work affects people's daily lives. Absolutely shitty at it. That MUST change.
IMO, the Democrats need new, younger leaders who aren't calcified in the rules and norms of the house and senate that republicans abandoned long ago. We need some risk takers, people who aren't afraid to go toe-to-toe on Fox [i.e., Pete Buttigieg], and who are masters of social media. We really need to reestablish the connection with our working class [my peeps] and middle class citizens. Post-pandemic inflation has been a problem worldwide, and we're not an exception. The problem is that the Biden admin did a crappy job of explaining that and letting people know what they're doing about it. People heard a lot of bad information from right-wing media with almost no response from Earth One.
The sad truth, IMO, is that the fallout from Trump's horrible economic policies is likely to hit working and middle class families hardest.
Any polling is the point where mistakes are since it's not even a realistic view, especially in the NYT. How many working-class people are going to spend their hard-earned dollars on the NYT, the Washington Post, WSJ, etc.! Surveying 1000 people is hardly equivalent to our American population!
Interestingly enough, you also said that pollsters were paid non-profit self-serving organizations. Why believe in polls at all?
Hi Mike, a couple of things I would like to ask and have you consider in upcoming posts.
1. Is this really a problem with Dems losing Latinos or is this really just a Dems losing voters to Trump? I mean, considering he had a big win, Dems have done pretty good. They held 3 and possibly 4 senate seats in swing states that Trump won. That is pretty amazing and indicates split ticket. That tells me that there wasn’t an embrace of republicans but an embrace of Trump. Also, the house isn’t shifting overwhelming to to the right. Everyone said during the Obama years that there was going to be this new realignment and Democratic coalition, but Dems could never recapture it with Obama off the ticket. Can the republicans really hold union and Latino voters without Trump at the top? There is a huge number of voters in Nevada who appear to have not ever voted for a senate candidate, which makes me think they just came out to vote for Trump.
2. Is this more of the same economic divide rather than a racial one? I’m seeing some articles saying that Harris gained with higher incomes and lost all around with voters under 100k. Is this just more populism message? This would explain her losing minorities and whites in greater numbers all around. Her messaging was way too policy driven and she cited economists that none of this people care about. She appealed to logic rather than emotion and never challenged him when he claimed his economy was better.
I hope you & Chuck will be part of the autopsy. But I agree with Jim. Not only was it disappointing to see the Latino shift but my generation Gen X was not great and neither is the 18-29 year old males. I understand not all groups can be won but there was hemorrhaging everywhere. In my opinion everyone suffers from the idea that some is going to steal their piece of the pie so they bought the tickets fear & retribution. And for context I was a registered Republican for most of my life (Did vote Obama in 2012) but left after Trump. I look forward to more of your insight Mike.
Something I am finding out is that 18-29 year old males in this country live in an entirely different media sphere than the rest of us do. A young co-worker of mine said her boyfriend voted for Trump due to RFK Jr hitting their podcast feeds with a lot of Russian disinformation about the Ukraine war and calling Dems warmongers who will start WW3 that their demographic will have to fight. I have been reading Richard Reeves' 2023 book "Of Boys and Men" which talks about the gender disparity in education and subsequently, employment between women and men (particularly the men on the lower end of the economic spectrum). I just finished Jonathan Haidt's "Anxious Generation" and the chapter on boys was particularly alarming as they have much higher reports of isolation, loneliness, and suicide than previous generations. I think it's a multifaceted problem with roots in social media/tech relationships supplanting real-world connections for many men and boys. And then all the opportunists flood these young men with narratives about how feminism and women are to blame for their very real problems.
Final thought, Dems are WAY behind on the trend of the new media. They need to find some male driven podcasters that can appeal to a younger segment of swing voters. I’ve been saying all year, that there has been a big hole in that area. During the Obama years, young voters thought republicans were a joke became they got most of their messaging from tv shows - comedies like Job Stewart, Bill Maher, and SNL. Nowadays, podcasts dominate young listeners - especially men. Dems need someone big on the left like an A Rod to get in on this. Maybe an Oscar de la Hoya. Someone who leans left.
You make some good points, but you fail to mention that marginalized communities may have voted against their own best interests. After Trump's first election win, I hoped he would have my best interests at heart, but I couldn't have been more wrong. The ipcoming presidential term has been clearly outlined, yet the rhetoric and propaganda have misled middle and working-class citizens of our great country. In the past, similar misinformation was broadcast from loudspeakers in Germany; today, it is spread across social media, with many not even questioning the truth of what they are reading.
People, including Latinos, are caught up in the moment and not taking the time to do their homework. Trump and the Republican Party have lied, demonized, vilified, and distorted the truth to such an extent that many people's judgments are scrambled, causing them to vote based on emotion rather than common sense and decency.
Many forget, especially in the working class, that four years ago, they were doing better because they received supplemental payments from the government through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and other supportive legislation. In March 2021, additional funds were provided through the American Rescue Plan Act. Moreover, the GDP fell by 32% in 2020, triggering inflation. All these factors contribute to higher costs and less money in the pockets of everyday hardworking Americans. To think that Trump and the Republican Congress will make an overnight change is, at best, delusional.
As a third-generation Mexican American, I find it surprising that you would assume I would vote against my best interests by supporting the Republican Party or that any political advertising could sway me. I rely on my own judgment to determine what the future holds by electing the most qualified and diverse candidates who reflect the true values and identities that make up America. On stage on election night, all but one person behind Trump were white, with Vance’s wife being the only person of color. Let that sink in!
There is so much more to discuss regarding demographics and analyzing the Democratic Party. It’s important to note that the diversity among Democratic congressional members is not limited to affluent, college-educated white individuals. It truly reflects the diversity of our American populace: Latino, Asian, white, Black, straight, gay, transgender, and more.
I appreciate you sharing your points of view, but I ask that you be clearer, more concise, and more well-rounded in your statements.
Perhaps we need to look into how to break the "cult" mentality. I do believe that Trump's propaganda language and Fox News was what the Democrats could not overcome. Trump is just a symptom of the "fear" of change. Democrats need to keep fighting for what is right with people like you and those who made up the Lincoln Project. For the immediate future we need to fight for our Dreamer "citizens". Perhaps that would be the step in waking up those Latinos who voted for Trump.
The Latino vote is complicated. All voting groups say they are not monolithic but no. For serious, we are a diverse bunch and one which, naturally, evolves over time. I haven't yet had time to look at the numbers but there are likely a few important dynamics that need to be looked at:
1. Mexicans have been here the longest because, well, the US took over their land . Then Puerto Ricans . Then Cubans. Then Dominicans. More recent migration patterns have included Guatamala, San Salvador, Nicaragua. Etc. There simply must be a difference between well established groups like Mexicans and Cubans with high citizenship rates and, say Dominicans, who are still in the process. And Puerto Ricans? We can go back and forth as we choose. The island itself is diverse, so the Puerto Rican vote can literally shift based on who is living mainland at the time.
2. For some of the more established groups, 2nd and 3rd generation Americans are not the same as newly arrived groups. My grandmother came in 1953. It's taken a while but, for my family, the generation after me will all be college educated and largely financially independent. Other Puerto Rican Families are firmly ensconced in the trades and many families are military.
3. Latinos tend to be more socially and religiusly conservative than most people think. Catholic of course but also Pentacostal (which is a form of Evangelical Christian).
4. Latinos like other immigrants open small businesses to support their families. For undocumented immigrants this may be the only way to support your family. You can become a productive, tax paying member of American society through this route even if you are not here legally.
I am Puerto Rican and African American so I have different viewpoint on this. Puerto Ricans have been US citizens since 1917, and it is not by choice. Secondly, gender and racism played a role in why Harris wasn't elected. Yes, Obama won twice, but it is a man, and also, his mom is white, which does play a role in how he feels about Obama vs Harris. Lastly, Clinton won a larger share of the Latino vote than Harris, and I believe it is because Clinton is a white woman and Latinos have an anti-blackness problem that is not talked about.
I think it would be naive not to admit to the racism that does exist in Latino communities but I will not accuse others or try to generalize. I can only speak to what I know personally.
I am half and half: Hungarian and PR. With that being said, I inherited my very fair skin and blue eyes from the PR side. ( My body shape as well LOL) I got on Ancestry to find out more about my family history, since my dad did not know his father.
Turns out ( to my chagrin) my father's father was the " illegitimate" son of a family that never ever intermarried. I went through census record after census record and all I saw under race was Blanco Blanco Blanco, going all the way back to the mid 1700s. Interestingly, they were also judges and plantation owners....huh...fancy that. Yeah no...that's not possible on an island as diverse as ours without racism being involved.
Have things changed, of course! I don't think I know racist Puerto Ricans personally. I try not to associate with such people. But, I met some in my work in Brooklyn. I do think it would be naive to think it doesn't exist at least for some Puerto Ricans at some times. Those of us who are honest with ourselves know that. We just don't like to discuss it because it makes no sense.
No one’s saying it doesn’t exist but no one has explained to me why Barack Obama had the highest Latino support levels - twice!
The real naïveté is dismissing this. If you do it means you refuse to look at clear evidence and are arguing for something that makes you feel better or helps affirm your existing beliefs.
Yes. In 2008, far more Latinos in my district supported Hillary in the Primary but shifted pretty much completely to a Obama in the General. There may have been a few that stayed home.
I agree that racism is a dynamic we would do well not to forget. And I also agree that racism among Latino voters may not have a lot of explanatory power in the 2024 context. With that being said, I also wonder: would it have made a difference if she were Latina? Interesting hypothetical to ponder even if we can never know the answer.
You’re the first person who mentions Pentecostals in regard to Latinos. Everyone mentions Catholics, but there are lots of us who used to be but changed, or who aren’t anything at all..
I would argue that the Dems need a *middle/working-class* autopsy. What is clear is that the Latino voters coming of age are voting more like their fellow white voters. If the "Latino Voter" is indeed a myth, then why should this be limited to an autopsy for just a racially-based demographic?
I have a question: if the Biden administration had started with an acknowledgment of the sacrifices made by essential workers and small businesses owners during the pandemic, many of them working class Latinos, would that have helped? I feel that was a missed opportunity, but understand that Biden got in and got to work passing legislation that helped those people but never was good at communicating or selling those policies.
Here's what I'm struggling with. Democrats offered Latinos entry into the professional class. A chance at college, and the opportunity to have the American dream that worked so well for them. Republicans offered them egg prices, or something. Seems like the former is the better offer, no?
I saw far more support for Hillary than Obama in 2008 but that fairly quickly turned into solid support for Obama in the general. No real bitterness. So I agree it is a dynamic we should not ignore but that may not have a ton of explanatory power in this particular context. I do wonder whether it would have made a difference if she were Latina though.
I don’t think it’s intellectually honest to draw conclusions from a primary fight between the two highest vote getters when they were a woman and a black man.
That strikes me as really trying to fit a pre-formed conclusion into a problem that doesn’t exist.
Latino voters elect women at rates higher than any other race or ethnic group.
I wrote an entire chapter dispelling this ethnic trope but I’m keenly aware that people believe what they want to believe. There’s very little difference now between the average Republican and the average Democrat in the capacity for self deception
I don’t think Latinidad would have made a difference as much as the party and politics if the candidate
Ok, first I am actually not arguing anything. I am exploring and asking questions.
Second, I was not trying to draw an inference. I told a story of my personal experience In one district in one city in one state, which simply checked out against what you said about the Latino vote supporting Obama. (Despite their disappoint over Hillary)
I have formed no conclusion whatsoever. I have never known what to do with a variable like racial bias or skin color bias that I can not capture in a model. It would be naive to dismiss it and yet I would not believe someone who told me they had captured it without a serious look at their methodology. Nor do I think we can "explain" these election results or any by referring to a variable that I know exists but that I can not point to.
I do not know what ethnic trope you are referring to. Is it that Latinos vote for women? I don't know whether that is true or not having not looked at the data. I study election law effects on turnout by party and race, not Latino politics. I don't tend to fall for tropes when it comes to Latinos. I do tend to speak from a combination of personal, professional and academic experience.
I am very interested though to know the rest of your response on whether it would make a difference if the candidate were Hispanic. We've never had such a candidate, so there is no data to look at. The limited and apocryphal data I have - from one district in one city in one state, is that it is far far far more complicated than that.
I just answered your question in my last response. I believe that’s impossible to discern.
I also believe that’s healthy because it strongly suggests there’s no ethnic proclivity to vote for or against a woman. The only evidence I see is Latinos elect women at rates greater than any other ethnicity (again I said that I my previous response)
Now please answer my question about your academic background
You said Latinos elect women and then you mentioned a trope. I did not know if the women elected statement was a statement of fact or the trope. I now gather that you are saying gender is real, race is the trope.
I do not know why you are hostile toward my acknowledging racism in my own background yet dismissing it as a valid or verifiable reason why Harris was not elected but you can do you.
I don't see where you asked for my background nor do I feel obliged to respond. I quite literally cannot believe that only 5 days after an election in which women were denigrated and made to feel like property, that you are checking whether I am educated enough to talk to you. But since I am very proud of it given my parents didn't attend college, here you go:
I have a BA in political science with a concentration in Latin American Politics from Columbia College/Columbia University. There I studied the affects of NAFTA on labor migration and GDP.
I have an MA in political theory from the University of California at Berkeley where I focused on Analytic theory (Rawls, Habermas et al). There I studied thin and thick concepts of "The Good".
I have a PhD in Political Science (American Government) from The University of Tennessee at Knoxville, with a concentration in Methodology and Public Policy. There I studied the effects of Election day and same day registration on turnout by party and race in state elections
I worked 20 years in community development in Brooklyn including 10 years running campaigns and serving my Member in the NYS Assembly. You?
Rachel, do you mean specifically would Latinos have given greater support to a Latino woman than a non-Latino white woman? I'm trying to think of examples in modern US politics but I'm not that knowledgeable.
Personally I think that the tendency to doubt that a woman is tough enough to be US president cuts across all demographic categories -- including college-educated women -- and is such a deep assumption that most who aren't openly misogynistic are even aware of it. My mind is still boggled by how many women support Trump. I just can't get my head around it.
To reach Latino voters, libs need to persuade entrepreneurs that there is money to be made in developing or buying radio stations and alternative media (podcasts, live streaming, TikTok ads and channels) that are liberal on bread and butter political issues but also antiwoke, along w all the other regular programming.
Mike, I know that this is not your field, but the question that is tormenting me is how so many women, even college-educated white women, can support Trump. For example, you've noted that women buy into Trump's rhetoric about immigrants breaking into their houses. I'm sure statistically that the greatest threat and actual cause of death is crazy abusive ex-husbands or boyfriends. What is going on here? Is it purely a pragmatic pocket-book assessment? Frustration with quality of schools and crime more generally? Can you recommend anyone who has looked as deeply with clear eyes into the women's vote as you have into the Latino vote? If so, I can't think of anything more illuminating that you interviewing that person.
I don't know, maybe the "inflation kills presidencies" is just true and working class Latinos followed the economy voters to Trump. There's just nothing you can do to explain the causes of inflation to voters that will make them NOT blame whomever is in office.
What I fear is that Trump will enact his inflation-accelerating agenda (tariffs, deporting the workforce), which will take a couple years to see the effects of, and the next president will have to deal with it. Trump will, again, bear no responsibility, as he has done all his life.
I agree with you on why this has been happening. It's why I was a Republican before Trump. I just think for this election, the shift accelerated due to the inflation issue. Working in the construction industry, I've witnessed first-hand the rightward shift of the Latino and blue-collar workforce for that decade. Thanks for engaging with your readers, Mike!
I am African American and Puerto Rican. I can't entirely agree with some of your views on working-class Latino voters. There is Latino Anti-Black Bias as well as sexism masquerading as their vote for Trump due to the economy. 2/3 of Latinos don't see themselves as people of color. They see themselves as white or white adjacent. Even though Clinton lost in 2016, she won a higher share of the Latino vote due in part because she is a white woman. I volunteered for the campaign, and the answers were based on gender primary, race second, not the economy, and why they were not going to vote for Harris.
Mike, your response is proves my point. There is racist backlash to Obama's election. BTW, I didn't vote for Obama either in 2008 or 2012. The fact that you brought up Obama winning Latino vote twice even though that electorate was different than 2024 says a lot about your own blind spots on the issue of race in the Latino Community.
I value the intellectual standards in the community being built here. I’m sorry but you fall way below those standards. This might be the most unenlightened comment on race I’ve ever heard. You’re blocked. Goodbye.
The answer is Latinos voted more for Obama than any other Presidential candidate in history.
I’m not asking a question I’m answering it. As I did in my book looking at the data and in my thirty years of practical experience asking and answering these questions.
What academic experience are you referring to? The idea that Latinos would vote more for a woman if she had a shared ethnicity is impossible to discern. Would Mayra Flores do better against a white male progressive in an urban Democratic enclave in LA? I’m guessing not.
I do know Latinos elect women at a higher rate than any other race/ethnic group in the country.
There is no evidence to suggest that Latino culture or Latino men have a lower likelihood of voting for a woman. If there is some besides anecdotal I’d like to see it. Suggesting otherwise is the ethnic trope I’m referring to. If that was not your inference than we’re in agreement and there’s nothing else to say
I'm struggling to understand the logic behind 'the Democrats need a Latino vote autopsy' when the republicans' 2012 autopsy was done but never implemented. I'm not against doing a thorough autopsy of what went wrong in this election. That's useful information the Democrats can use to do better next time. I also can't overlook the fact that when Democrats talk about doing anything for Latino voters, or Black voters or women voters, they get accused of playing 'identity politics.'
I'm also struggling with the claim that republicans have focused on economic issues and not immigration when all the republicans , especially Trump, and right-leaning media have been talking about every election cycle are 'the caravans!' and 'illegals invading our country through the southern border.' Mass deportations and import tariffs have been Trump's two major issues this cycle. His tax plan is based on giving billionaires and big corporations tax cuts. The Harris campaign focused on working and middle-class tax cuts, child tax credits, child care tax credits, new homeowners' tax credits, and going after price gouging on groceries.
Clearly, I'm missing something.
I don’t think you’re missing anything. I think the discussion has to be had. Harris was making adjustments the party desperately needed to make after 15 years of losing voters.
You’re only missing it if you’re saying Democrats did everything right. If that’s what you’re saying well….
That wasn't AT ALL what I was saying. I was asking in good faith. Pretty sure I said a post-election review, or autopsy, is a good idea, proving valuable information we can learn from. What I think I'm missing are the issues that are important to Latino voters which were not being proposed by Harris but apparently were by Trump? That's the disconnect I'm struggling with. Along with the convicted felon as president, and a bunch of other things that apparently don't mean anything anymore? I am seriously, genuinely asking.
Working class people are struggling with affordability. Their purchasing power has decreased by nearly 30% during the Biden years. Housing costs are up dramatically. Biden himself said yesterday the effects of most of his policies won’t be felt for years.
Only 20% of Latinos said the economy was ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ in the NYT Latino poll before the election. That’s horrible.
Same poll had Latinos saying Democrats “Are the party that understands people like me” but also don’t believe that “voting for Democrats will improve my life”
As a prominent Democratic consultant told me this morning “Democrats don’t have a Latino problem, Latinos have a Democrat problem”
Very true
Well, if we're talking about a communication issue, I'm 100% in agreement. Democrats have historically been lousy at whatever you want to call it, blowing their own horn, bragging on their accomplishments, telling how their work affects people's daily lives. Absolutely shitty at it. That MUST change.
IMO, the Democrats need new, younger leaders who aren't calcified in the rules and norms of the house and senate that republicans abandoned long ago. We need some risk takers, people who aren't afraid to go toe-to-toe on Fox [i.e., Pete Buttigieg], and who are masters of social media. We really need to reestablish the connection with our working class [my peeps] and middle class citizens. Post-pandemic inflation has been a problem worldwide, and we're not an exception. The problem is that the Biden admin did a crappy job of explaining that and letting people know what they're doing about it. People heard a lot of bad information from right-wing media with almost no response from Earth One.
The sad truth, IMO, is that the fallout from Trump's horrible economic policies is likely to hit working and middle class families hardest.
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this.
Any polling is the point where mistakes are since it's not even a realistic view, especially in the NYT. How many working-class people are going to spend their hard-earned dollars on the NYT, the Washington Post, WSJ, etc.! Surveying 1000 people is hardly equivalent to our American population!
Interestingly enough, you also said that pollsters were paid non-profit self-serving organizations. Why believe in polls at all?
Hi Mike, a couple of things I would like to ask and have you consider in upcoming posts.
1. Is this really a problem with Dems losing Latinos or is this really just a Dems losing voters to Trump? I mean, considering he had a big win, Dems have done pretty good. They held 3 and possibly 4 senate seats in swing states that Trump won. That is pretty amazing and indicates split ticket. That tells me that there wasn’t an embrace of republicans but an embrace of Trump. Also, the house isn’t shifting overwhelming to to the right. Everyone said during the Obama years that there was going to be this new realignment and Democratic coalition, but Dems could never recapture it with Obama off the ticket. Can the republicans really hold union and Latino voters without Trump at the top? There is a huge number of voters in Nevada who appear to have not ever voted for a senate candidate, which makes me think they just came out to vote for Trump.
2. Is this more of the same economic divide rather than a racial one? I’m seeing some articles saying that Harris gained with higher incomes and lost all around with voters under 100k. Is this just more populism message? This would explain her losing minorities and whites in greater numbers all around. Her messaging was way too policy driven and she cited economists that none of this people care about. She appealed to logic rather than emotion and never challenged him when he claimed his economy was better.
There’s a lot of really good points here! It’s more than an article. Maybe a MikeDrop?
I'd argue that outside of Latinos, Trump didn't really have a big win. He mostly held serve. 312 EVs and 50% of the popular vote is SMALL.
And, as you've observed, he had zero coattail effect.
I hope you & Chuck will be part of the autopsy. But I agree with Jim. Not only was it disappointing to see the Latino shift but my generation Gen X was not great and neither is the 18-29 year old males. I understand not all groups can be won but there was hemorrhaging everywhere. In my opinion everyone suffers from the idea that some is going to steal their piece of the pie so they bought the tickets fear & retribution. And for context I was a registered Republican for most of my life (Did vote Obama in 2012) but left after Trump. I look forward to more of your insight Mike.
Something I am finding out is that 18-29 year old males in this country live in an entirely different media sphere than the rest of us do. A young co-worker of mine said her boyfriend voted for Trump due to RFK Jr hitting their podcast feeds with a lot of Russian disinformation about the Ukraine war and calling Dems warmongers who will start WW3 that their demographic will have to fight. I have been reading Richard Reeves' 2023 book "Of Boys and Men" which talks about the gender disparity in education and subsequently, employment between women and men (particularly the men on the lower end of the economic spectrum). I just finished Jonathan Haidt's "Anxious Generation" and the chapter on boys was particularly alarming as they have much higher reports of isolation, loneliness, and suicide than previous generations. I think it's a multifaceted problem with roots in social media/tech relationships supplanting real-world connections for many men and boys. And then all the opportunists flood these young men with narratives about how feminism and women are to blame for their very real problems.
Final thought, Dems are WAY behind on the trend of the new media. They need to find some male driven podcasters that can appeal to a younger segment of swing voters. I’ve been saying all year, that there has been a big hole in that area. During the Obama years, young voters thought republicans were a joke became they got most of their messaging from tv shows - comedies like Job Stewart, Bill Maher, and SNL. Nowadays, podcasts dominate young listeners - especially men. Dems need someone big on the left like an A Rod to get in on this. Maybe an Oscar de la Hoya. Someone who leans left.
You make some good points, but you fail to mention that marginalized communities may have voted against their own best interests. After Trump's first election win, I hoped he would have my best interests at heart, but I couldn't have been more wrong. The ipcoming presidential term has been clearly outlined, yet the rhetoric and propaganda have misled middle and working-class citizens of our great country. In the past, similar misinformation was broadcast from loudspeakers in Germany; today, it is spread across social media, with many not even questioning the truth of what they are reading.
People, including Latinos, are caught up in the moment and not taking the time to do their homework. Trump and the Republican Party have lied, demonized, vilified, and distorted the truth to such an extent that many people's judgments are scrambled, causing them to vote based on emotion rather than common sense and decency.
Many forget, especially in the working class, that four years ago, they were doing better because they received supplemental payments from the government through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and other supportive legislation. In March 2021, additional funds were provided through the American Rescue Plan Act. Moreover, the GDP fell by 32% in 2020, triggering inflation. All these factors contribute to higher costs and less money in the pockets of everyday hardworking Americans. To think that Trump and the Republican Congress will make an overnight change is, at best, delusional.
As a third-generation Mexican American, I find it surprising that you would assume I would vote against my best interests by supporting the Republican Party or that any political advertising could sway me. I rely on my own judgment to determine what the future holds by electing the most qualified and diverse candidates who reflect the true values and identities that make up America. On stage on election night, all but one person behind Trump were white, with Vance’s wife being the only person of color. Let that sink in!
There is so much more to discuss regarding demographics and analyzing the Democratic Party. It’s important to note that the diversity among Democratic congressional members is not limited to affluent, college-educated white individuals. It truly reflects the diversity of our American populace: Latino, Asian, white, Black, straight, gay, transgender, and more.
I appreciate you sharing your points of view, but I ask that you be clearer, more concise, and more well-rounded in your statements.
Jesse Garcia
Perhaps we need to look into how to break the "cult" mentality. I do believe that Trump's propaganda language and Fox News was what the Democrats could not overcome. Trump is just a symptom of the "fear" of change. Democrats need to keep fighting for what is right with people like you and those who made up the Lincoln Project. For the immediate future we need to fight for our Dreamer "citizens". Perhaps that would be the step in waking up those Latinos who voted for Trump.
The Latino vote is complicated. All voting groups say they are not monolithic but no. For serious, we are a diverse bunch and one which, naturally, evolves over time. I haven't yet had time to look at the numbers but there are likely a few important dynamics that need to be looked at:
1. Mexicans have been here the longest because, well, the US took over their land . Then Puerto Ricans . Then Cubans. Then Dominicans. More recent migration patterns have included Guatamala, San Salvador, Nicaragua. Etc. There simply must be a difference between well established groups like Mexicans and Cubans with high citizenship rates and, say Dominicans, who are still in the process. And Puerto Ricans? We can go back and forth as we choose. The island itself is diverse, so the Puerto Rican vote can literally shift based on who is living mainland at the time.
2. For some of the more established groups, 2nd and 3rd generation Americans are not the same as newly arrived groups. My grandmother came in 1953. It's taken a while but, for my family, the generation after me will all be college educated and largely financially independent. Other Puerto Rican Families are firmly ensconced in the trades and many families are military.
3. Latinos tend to be more socially and religiusly conservative than most people think. Catholic of course but also Pentacostal (which is a form of Evangelical Christian).
4. Latinos like other immigrants open small businesses to support their families. For undocumented immigrants this may be the only way to support your family. You can become a productive, tax paying member of American society through this route even if you are not here legally.
I am Puerto Rican and African American so I have different viewpoint on this. Puerto Ricans have been US citizens since 1917, and it is not by choice. Secondly, gender and racism played a role in why Harris wasn't elected. Yes, Obama won twice, but it is a man, and also, his mom is white, which does play a role in how he feels about Obama vs Harris. Lastly, Clinton won a larger share of the Latino vote than Harris, and I believe it is because Clinton is a white woman and Latinos have an anti-blackness problem that is not talked about.
I think it would be naive not to admit to the racism that does exist in Latino communities but I will not accuse others or try to generalize. I can only speak to what I know personally.
I am half and half: Hungarian and PR. With that being said, I inherited my very fair skin and blue eyes from the PR side. ( My body shape as well LOL) I got on Ancestry to find out more about my family history, since my dad did not know his father.
Turns out ( to my chagrin) my father's father was the " illegitimate" son of a family that never ever intermarried. I went through census record after census record and all I saw under race was Blanco Blanco Blanco, going all the way back to the mid 1700s. Interestingly, they were also judges and plantation owners....huh...fancy that. Yeah no...that's not possible on an island as diverse as ours without racism being involved.
Have things changed, of course! I don't think I know racist Puerto Ricans personally. I try not to associate with such people. But, I met some in my work in Brooklyn. I do think it would be naive to think it doesn't exist at least for some Puerto Ricans at some times. Those of us who are honest with ourselves know that. We just don't like to discuss it because it makes no sense.
No one’s saying it doesn’t exist but no one has explained to me why Barack Obama had the highest Latino support levels - twice!
The real naïveté is dismissing this. If you do it means you refuse to look at clear evidence and are arguing for something that makes you feel better or helps affirm your existing beliefs.
Yes it exists - no it’s not why voters shifted.
Yes. In 2008, far more Latinos in my district supported Hillary in the Primary but shifted pretty much completely to a Obama in the General. There may have been a few that stayed home.
I agree that racism is a dynamic we would do well not to forget. And I also agree that racism among Latino voters may not have a lot of explanatory power in the 2024 context. With that being said, I also wonder: would it have made a difference if she were Latina? Interesting hypothetical to ponder even if we can never know the answer.
You’re the first person who mentions Pentecostals in regard to Latinos. Everyone mentions Catholics, but there are lots of us who used to be but changed, or who aren’t anything at all..
Even among my aunts uncles and parents family we have mix of 7th day, Pentacostal Catholic, lapsed Catholic and nonreligious.
I actually wrote a substack response to Mike's article on "Is the Latino Voter a Myth."
I'd love it if you two read it and let me know what you think!
https://substack.com/@lindamaetx/note/p-151321201?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=1r6229
This is such a thoughtful and insightful post, thank you!
I would argue that the Dems need a *middle/working-class* autopsy. What is clear is that the Latino voters coming of age are voting more like their fellow white voters. If the "Latino Voter" is indeed a myth, then why should this be limited to an autopsy for just a racially-based demographic?
I have a question: if the Biden administration had started with an acknowledgment of the sacrifices made by essential workers and small businesses owners during the pandemic, many of them working class Latinos, would that have helped? I feel that was a missed opportunity, but understand that Biden got in and got to work passing legislation that helped those people but never was good at communicating or selling those policies.
Here's what I'm struggling with. Democrats offered Latinos entry into the professional class. A chance at college, and the opportunity to have the American dream that worked so well for them. Republicans offered them egg prices, or something. Seems like the former is the better offer, no?
I saw far more support for Hillary than Obama in 2008 but that fairly quickly turned into solid support for Obama in the general. No real bitterness. So I agree it is a dynamic we should not ignore but that may not have a ton of explanatory power in this particular context. I do wonder whether it would have made a difference if she were Latina though.
I don’t think it’s intellectually honest to draw conclusions from a primary fight between the two highest vote getters when they were a woman and a black man.
That strikes me as really trying to fit a pre-formed conclusion into a problem that doesn’t exist.
Latino voters elect women at rates higher than any other race or ethnic group.
I wrote an entire chapter dispelling this ethnic trope but I’m keenly aware that people believe what they want to believe. There’s very little difference now between the average Republican and the average Democrat in the capacity for self deception
I don’t think Latinidad would have made a difference as much as the party and politics if the candidate
Ok, first I am actually not arguing anything. I am exploring and asking questions.
Second, I was not trying to draw an inference. I told a story of my personal experience In one district in one city in one state, which simply checked out against what you said about the Latino vote supporting Obama. (Despite their disappoint over Hillary)
I have formed no conclusion whatsoever. I have never known what to do with a variable like racial bias or skin color bias that I can not capture in a model. It would be naive to dismiss it and yet I would not believe someone who told me they had captured it without a serious look at their methodology. Nor do I think we can "explain" these election results or any by referring to a variable that I know exists but that I can not point to.
I do not know what ethnic trope you are referring to. Is it that Latinos vote for women? I don't know whether that is true or not having not looked at the data. I study election law effects on turnout by party and race, not Latino politics. I don't tend to fall for tropes when it comes to Latinos. I do tend to speak from a combination of personal, professional and academic experience.
I am very interested though to know the rest of your response on whether it would make a difference if the candidate were Hispanic. We've never had such a candidate, so there is no data to look at. The limited and apocryphal data I have - from one district in one city in one state, is that it is far far far more complicated than that.
I just answered your question in my last response. I believe that’s impossible to discern.
I also believe that’s healthy because it strongly suggests there’s no ethnic proclivity to vote for or against a woman. The only evidence I see is Latinos elect women at rates greater than any other ethnicity (again I said that I my previous response)
Now please answer my question about your academic background
Your reply was cut off. I thought there was more.
You said Latinos elect women and then you mentioned a trope. I did not know if the women elected statement was a statement of fact or the trope. I now gather that you are saying gender is real, race is the trope.
I do not know why you are hostile toward my acknowledging racism in my own background yet dismissing it as a valid or verifiable reason why Harris was not elected but you can do you.
I don't see where you asked for my background nor do I feel obliged to respond. I quite literally cannot believe that only 5 days after an election in which women were denigrated and made to feel like property, that you are checking whether I am educated enough to talk to you. But since I am very proud of it given my parents didn't attend college, here you go:
I have a BA in political science with a concentration in Latin American Politics from Columbia College/Columbia University. There I studied the affects of NAFTA on labor migration and GDP.
I have an MA in political theory from the University of California at Berkeley where I focused on Analytic theory (Rawls, Habermas et al). There I studied thin and thick concepts of "The Good".
I have a PhD in Political Science (American Government) from The University of Tennessee at Knoxville, with a concentration in Methodology and Public Policy. There I studied the effects of Election day and same day registration on turnout by party and race in state elections
I worked 20 years in community development in Brooklyn including 10 years running campaigns and serving my Member in the NYS Assembly. You?
Rachel, do you mean specifically would Latinos have given greater support to a Latino woman than a non-Latino white woman? I'm trying to think of examples in modern US politics but I'm not that knowledgeable.
Personally I think that the tendency to doubt that a woman is tough enough to be US president cuts across all demographic categories -- including college-educated women -- and is such a deep assumption that most who aren't openly misogynistic are even aware of it. My mind is still boggled by how many women support Trump. I just can't get my head around it.
To reach Latino voters, libs need to persuade entrepreneurs that there is money to be made in developing or buying radio stations and alternative media (podcasts, live streaming, TikTok ads and channels) that are liberal on bread and butter political issues but also antiwoke, along w all the other regular programming.
Mike, I know that this is not your field, but the question that is tormenting me is how so many women, even college-educated white women, can support Trump. For example, you've noted that women buy into Trump's rhetoric about immigrants breaking into their houses. I'm sure statistically that the greatest threat and actual cause of death is crazy abusive ex-husbands or boyfriends. What is going on here? Is it purely a pragmatic pocket-book assessment? Frustration with quality of schools and crime more generally? Can you recommend anyone who has looked as deeply with clear eyes into the women's vote as you have into the Latino vote? If so, I can't think of anything more illuminating that you interviewing that person.
Thanks Linda. Let me reach out to some experts on this and see if they’d be open to an interview. It’s a great idea!
I don't know, maybe the "inflation kills presidencies" is just true and working class Latinos followed the economy voters to Trump. There's just nothing you can do to explain the causes of inflation to voters that will make them NOT blame whomever is in office.
What I fear is that Trump will enact his inflation-accelerating agenda (tariffs, deporting the workforce), which will take a couple years to see the effects of, and the next president will have to deal with it. Trump will, again, bear no responsibility, as he has done all his life.
So how do you explain this began ten years before inflation was a problem?
I agree with you on why this has been happening. It's why I was a Republican before Trump. I just think for this election, the shift accelerated due to the inflation issue. Working in the construction industry, I've witnessed first-hand the rightward shift of the Latino and blue-collar workforce for that decade. Thanks for engaging with your readers, Mike!
I am African American and Puerto Rican. I can't entirely agree with some of your views on working-class Latino voters. There is Latino Anti-Black Bias as well as sexism masquerading as their vote for Trump due to the economy. 2/3 of Latinos don't see themselves as people of color. They see themselves as white or white adjacent. Even though Clinton lost in 2016, she won a higher share of the Latino vote due in part because she is a white woman. I volunteered for the campaign, and the answers were based on gender primary, race second, not the economy, and why they were not going to vote for Harris.
Obama got the two highest votes shares of Latinos in US history
Please stop. Its Quantifiably false
Mike, your response is proves my point. There is racist backlash to Obama's election. BTW, I didn't vote for Obama either in 2008 or 2012. The fact that you brought up Obama winning Latino vote twice even though that electorate was different than 2024 says a lot about your own blind spots on the issue of race in the Latino Community.
I value the intellectual standards in the community being built here. I’m sorry but you fall way below those standards. This might be the most unenlightened comment on race I’ve ever heard. You’re blocked. Goodbye.
The answer is Latinos voted more for Obama than any other Presidential candidate in history.
I’m not asking a question I’m answering it. As I did in my book looking at the data and in my thirty years of practical experience asking and answering these questions.
What academic experience are you referring to? The idea that Latinos would vote more for a woman if she had a shared ethnicity is impossible to discern. Would Mayra Flores do better against a white male progressive in an urban Democratic enclave in LA? I’m guessing not.
I do know Latinos elect women at a higher rate than any other race/ethnic group in the country.
There is no evidence to suggest that Latino culture or Latino men have a lower likelihood of voting for a woman. If there is some besides anecdotal I’d like to see it. Suggesting otherwise is the ethnic trope I’m referring to. If that was not your inference than we’re in agreement and there’s nothing else to say