Great analysis, Mike, as usual. Perhaps you or a Lincoln Project colleague would also consider
writing a piece that clarifies the roles & responsibilities of ICE, Border Patrol and CBP? I'm a reasonably well-informed voter, but would certainly appreciate a sort of "Immigration 101" given our overwhelmingly complex immigration system.
And while you're at it, perhaps include an even simpler, dumbed-down primer (for our president) that explains the terms & processes of "asylum seekers," "employment authorization;" ICE detention vs. criminal jail/prison sentences; and civil immigration violations vs. criminal convictions. Thanks for all you folks do!
Thanks for your live video going through these details Mike. Hearing that kids are sitting in cars all day while their parents work hard in the fields gutted me. And here's family separation all over again, with ramped up cruelty, fear and violence by ICE. Maybe the inhumane treatment we're witnessing is breaking through and starting to reflect in these polls...and our souls.
Some good points Mike, but Trump administration is going to continue full force on deporting as many people (regardless of legal status) to satisfy their base. Trump already catching hell from farmers and businesses who rely on migrant labor.
But Trump doesn't need their votes anymore, even if GOP will need them in future.
49% still think it’s appropriate though? That still seems high to me if they are seeing masked badgeless men taking people in unmarked vehicles to who knows where and are still thinking it’s appropriate. Maybe they aren’t seeing the same images and stories some of us are or aren’t believing them if they are. I need to have a conversation with some MAGAs to see what they might be seeing. Or subject myself to some Fox News. I’ll hopefully be seeing my brother later today and will report back.
Update: spoke with some family. They are still convinced people getting arrested are violent criminals and believe ICE should continue wearing masks to protect their identity. They think marijuana fields were using child labor (including in possibly the sex trade) and that’s why kids were there. No raids (that they are aware of) happening in their town in TX.
So, in short, we've arrived at the predictable, and predicted, "kids in cages 2.0". Then, Trump backed off, and he's shown signs of wanting to this time. But Miller et al do not, and now they have all the resources their dark hearts desire. They're going to be hard to stop, so this poll isn't the end state, they're likely to get significantly worse.
Given the volatility of polling here, caution in interpretation is wise. Respondents can 'hear' a different question than the pollster or interpreter thinks has been asked. As you say, no one has been less wise than Miller himself. He really seems to believe he has a public mandate for what amounts to ethnic cleansing, when he clearly does not.
Strongly suggest you check out what David J Bier of Cato (yes, Cato) has had to say about the border. Trump did not, in reality (as opposed to public perception) bring it under control, it already was. He credits some Biden policy changes, but the largest factor was the subsidence of the high demand for labor during Covid recovery, already rising when Biden took office (due to effect of the first stimulus bill, those Trump checks, turns out "demand side" works!).
Beyond immigration, what if this ICE expansion becomes a secret police that then targets anyone who dares put up opposing views of Trump? What if ICE tries going after political opponents regardless of citizenship? Watched a very concerning segment from Ali Velshi today on that.
This is one of the clearest, most valuable analyses I’ve seen in some time. Your framing is sharp, your timing is spot on, and your command of both data and political instinct is admirable. You’ve articulated what many of us have felt in the marrow: that there’s a cost to cruelty, and this administration is finally getting the bill.
But if I may, I offer a small reservation—not about your logic, but about the fragility of data in a culture this manipulated. Public opinion can shift fast, yes—but it can also be sedated just as quickly. We’ve seen again and again how fear, spectacle, and relentless messaging can override what people say they believe. The cruelty may be unpopular, but if the right crisis is engineered or the right scapegoat named, that unpopularity can be buried beneath manufactured panic.
So yes, the ice is cracking. But whether it breaks under the weight of its own inhumanity—or is quietly reinforced by apathy, silence, or tribalism—will depend on what the rest of us do with this moment. Truth doesn’t always win. Sometimes it needs a megaphone and a spine.
You focus on the fact that the fact that "the percentage of Americans wanting less immigration has dropped by nearly half this year." But you conveniently ignore the fact that the percentage of Americans wanting less immigration almost doubled during the last administration. When you add those two facts together, this does not look like some major sea-change in Americans' views on immigration but rather a return to the pre-Biden status quo, now that President Trump has reversed the excesses of his predecessor. Indeed, the author of the survey said as much: "Americans’ attitudes on immigration have largely returned to where they stood before the recent border surge."
Regarding Hispanics' responses, "With respect to immigration levels, Hispanic adults are slightly more likely than U.S. adults overall to say immigration should be decreased (39% vs. 30%, respectively) as well as to consider immigration a bad thing (25% vs. 17%)." Both the author of the survey and yourself gloss over this statistic, which creates a pretty glaring discrepancy for the other claims being made about Hispanic' attitudes. At the very least, it shows that the picture is more mixed than what you are presenting.
I have written my own critique of this poll (and its coverage in the media). Feel free to check it out for a different perspective:
Well, I think it isn't serious to refuse to address statistics that contradict your narrative. Especially when you include virtually every other one from that same study. In that case, one cannot help but suspect that the omission was deliberate. And it also isn't serious to refuse to engage with dissenting views, instead preferring to only engage with people who agree with you. This platform should be for conversations across our divides; not telling fellow writers to "move along."
"But the most telling evidence of Republican overreach lies in the large political shift among Republicans themselves. And this is where things really get squirrelly. About two-thirds of Republicans now say immigrants are 'a good thing' for the country, up from 39% last year. This 27-percentage-point swing among the party’s own base is precisely what happens when a political movement goes too far, too fast... it’s repelling a majority of Republicans."
But, in the same poll, 85% of Republicans approve of the President's actions on immigration. That second result makes it clear that the base is not moving away from Trump; instead, they are able to feel more positively toward immigration because of the progress that has already been achieved -- progress which they give Trump credit for.
Did they break out any of the border states in this polling?
I am particularly curious because Hispanic and Latino voters in Florida, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern California seem to vote differently from each other and differently from Chicago Latino voters. Plus Texas and Florida are part of the second tier Republican senate seats that could flip.
Also, aren’t the ICE raids, detentions, and deportations linked to the decrease in undocumented border crossings? As in hasn’t the cruelty of the policy influenced the decision-making of potential migrants, stopping many from making the journey at all and some from turning around midway? In which case the border situation is only temporarily resolved because the root causes of migration aren’t addressed and the current policy is untenable in the longterm.
Fantastic analysis - thank you for taking us through the data!
Here’s one question: do you attribute any of the swing to thermostatic backlash that is at risk of swinging the other way if the Democrats retake power?
I sure hope you are right. My question is - among Hispanics who swung to Trump and voted for him - do they regret their votes ? Will they move totally away from the Republican Party which supports Trump & his lawless immigration tactics? Do they realize that Republicans essentially want them all out of the country ? Even those that are citizens.
Doubt it. It's not like Republicans suddenly hate immigrants and Hispanic people. If they wanted to move away from Republicans who generally hate immigrants and Hispanics, they wouldn't have put them in power. As Mike says - it's about the economy. Last election they thought Democrats didn't improve the economy enough. And they voted for Trump. Republicans can be as racist as possible but if people think they'll improve the economy, they'll get voted it.
Great analysis, Mike, as usual. Perhaps you or a Lincoln Project colleague would also consider
writing a piece that clarifies the roles & responsibilities of ICE, Border Patrol and CBP? I'm a reasonably well-informed voter, but would certainly appreciate a sort of "Immigration 101" given our overwhelmingly complex immigration system.
And while you're at it, perhaps include an even simpler, dumbed-down primer (for our president) that explains the terms & processes of "asylum seekers," "employment authorization;" ICE detention vs. criminal jail/prison sentences; and civil immigration violations vs. criminal convictions. Thanks for all you folks do!
That’s a great idea!
Thanks for your live video going through these details Mike. Hearing that kids are sitting in cars all day while their parents work hard in the fields gutted me. And here's family separation all over again, with ramped up cruelty, fear and violence by ICE. Maybe the inhumane treatment we're witnessing is breaking through and starting to reflect in these polls...and our souls.
Thank you Sherry 🙏🏼
Some good points Mike, but Trump administration is going to continue full force on deporting as many people (regardless of legal status) to satisfy their base. Trump already catching hell from farmers and businesses who rely on migrant labor.
But Trump doesn't need their votes anymore, even if GOP will need them in future.
Bullseye!
49% still think it’s appropriate though? That still seems high to me if they are seeing masked badgeless men taking people in unmarked vehicles to who knows where and are still thinking it’s appropriate. Maybe they aren’t seeing the same images and stories some of us are or aren’t believing them if they are. I need to have a conversation with some MAGAs to see what they might be seeing. Or subject myself to some Fox News. I’ll hopefully be seeing my brother later today and will report back.
Update: spoke with some family. They are still convinced people getting arrested are violent criminals and believe ICE should continue wearing masks to protect their identity. They think marijuana fields were using child labor (including in possibly the sex trade) and that’s why kids were there. No raids (that they are aware of) happening in their town in TX.
So, in short, we've arrived at the predictable, and predicted, "kids in cages 2.0". Then, Trump backed off, and he's shown signs of wanting to this time. But Miller et al do not, and now they have all the resources their dark hearts desire. They're going to be hard to stop, so this poll isn't the end state, they're likely to get significantly worse.
Given the volatility of polling here, caution in interpretation is wise. Respondents can 'hear' a different question than the pollster or interpreter thinks has been asked. As you say, no one has been less wise than Miller himself. He really seems to believe he has a public mandate for what amounts to ethnic cleansing, when he clearly does not.
Strongly suggest you check out what David J Bier of Cato (yes, Cato) has had to say about the border. Trump did not, in reality (as opposed to public perception) bring it under control, it already was. He credits some Biden policy changes, but the largest factor was the subsidence of the high demand for labor during Covid recovery, already rising when Biden took office (due to effect of the first stimulus bill, those Trump checks, turns out "demand side" works!).
Beyond immigration, what if this ICE expansion becomes a secret police that then targets anyone who dares put up opposing views of Trump? What if ICE tries going after political opponents regardless of citizenship? Watched a very concerning segment from Ali Velshi today on that.
This is one of the clearest, most valuable analyses I’ve seen in some time. Your framing is sharp, your timing is spot on, and your command of both data and political instinct is admirable. You’ve articulated what many of us have felt in the marrow: that there’s a cost to cruelty, and this administration is finally getting the bill.
But if I may, I offer a small reservation—not about your logic, but about the fragility of data in a culture this manipulated. Public opinion can shift fast, yes—but it can also be sedated just as quickly. We’ve seen again and again how fear, spectacle, and relentless messaging can override what people say they believe. The cruelty may be unpopular, but if the right crisis is engineered or the right scapegoat named, that unpopularity can be buried beneath manufactured panic.
So yes, the ice is cracking. But whether it breaks under the weight of its own inhumanity—or is quietly reinforced by apathy, silence, or tribalism—will depend on what the rest of us do with this moment. Truth doesn’t always win. Sometimes it needs a megaphone and a spine.
Thank you for bringing both.
Thank you Dino 🙏🏼
Doesn’t appear Tom Homan has got the message or read the data.
He’s gotten it. He just doesn’t care.
You focus on the fact that the fact that "the percentage of Americans wanting less immigration has dropped by nearly half this year." But you conveniently ignore the fact that the percentage of Americans wanting less immigration almost doubled during the last administration. When you add those two facts together, this does not look like some major sea-change in Americans' views on immigration but rather a return to the pre-Biden status quo, now that President Trump has reversed the excesses of his predecessor. Indeed, the author of the survey said as much: "Americans’ attitudes on immigration have largely returned to where they stood before the recent border surge."
Regarding Hispanics' responses, "With respect to immigration levels, Hispanic adults are slightly more likely than U.S. adults overall to say immigration should be decreased (39% vs. 30%, respectively) as well as to consider immigration a bad thing (25% vs. 17%)." Both the author of the survey and yourself gloss over this statistic, which creates a pretty glaring discrepancy for the other claims being made about Hispanic' attitudes. At the very least, it shows that the picture is more mixed than what you are presenting.
I have written my own critique of this poll (and its coverage in the media). Feel free to check it out for a different perspective:
https://theironfairy.substack.com/p/dissecting-gallups-new-immigration
I think I’ll pass on your analysis. Anyone taking one data point and suggesting that means things have been ‘glossed over’ isn’t serious.
Now move along.
Well, I think it isn't serious to refuse to address statistics that contradict your narrative. Especially when you include virtually every other one from that same study. In that case, one cannot help but suspect that the omission was deliberate. And it also isn't serious to refuse to engage with dissenting views, instead preferring to only engage with people who agree with you. This platform should be for conversations across our divides; not telling fellow writers to "move along."
Then why are you writing under an anonymous account?
I’m glad you found a cute hobby. Circle back after you’ve been doing it thirty years, have written a book and done a few hundred campaigns.
In the meantime take a hike
I address the first point directly
"But the most telling evidence of Republican overreach lies in the large political shift among Republicans themselves. And this is where things really get squirrelly. About two-thirds of Republicans now say immigrants are 'a good thing' for the country, up from 39% last year. This 27-percentage-point swing among the party’s own base is precisely what happens when a political movement goes too far, too fast... it’s repelling a majority of Republicans."
But, in the same poll, 85% of Republicans approve of the President's actions on immigration. That second result makes it clear that the base is not moving away from Trump; instead, they are able to feel more positively toward immigration because of the progress that has already been achieved -- progress which they give Trump credit for.
Did they break out any of the border states in this polling?
I am particularly curious because Hispanic and Latino voters in Florida, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern California seem to vote differently from each other and differently from Chicago Latino voters. Plus Texas and Florida are part of the second tier Republican senate seats that could flip.
Also, aren’t the ICE raids, detentions, and deportations linked to the decrease in undocumented border crossings? As in hasn’t the cruelty of the policy influenced the decision-making of potential migrants, stopping many from making the journey at all and some from turning around midway? In which case the border situation is only temporarily resolved because the root causes of migration aren’t addressed and the current policy is untenable in the longterm.
Fantastic analysis - thank you for taking us through the data!
Here’s one question: do you attribute any of the swing to thermostatic backlash that is at risk of swinging the other way if the Democrats retake power?
I sure hope you are right. My question is - among Hispanics who swung to Trump and voted for him - do they regret their votes ? Will they move totally away from the Republican Party which supports Trump & his lawless immigration tactics? Do they realize that Republicans essentially want them all out of the country ? Even those that are citizens.
Doubt it. It's not like Republicans suddenly hate immigrants and Hispanic people. If they wanted to move away from Republicans who generally hate immigrants and Hispanics, they wouldn't have put them in power. As Mike says - it's about the economy. Last election they thought Democrats didn't improve the economy enough. And they voted for Trump. Republicans can be as racist as possible but if people think they'll improve the economy, they'll get voted it.
Well Trump sure hasn’t improved the economy either.