Welp, I was hoping for a day off. I realized that wasn’t gonna happen when the NYT/Siena poll was released and Sunday Twitter started melting down. The toplines show Trump 49%-Harris 48% and from there my Twitter feed felt like the last line of ‘Casey at the bat’ where there would be no joy in Mudville.
Like so much of what happens with campaigns and social media this too is an over reaction. It is however instructive. Kamala Harris could not go on a rocket ship straight into the atmosphere forever and this poll, with the regular caveat that it could be an outlier, seems to reflect what was peering on the horizon - the honeymoon is over.
That doesn’t mean the race is. Far, far from it.
It does mean that the heady days of irrational exuberance are gone and its time for cooler heads and hard work to prevail. No matter what the polls say, fighting until the last ballot is cast is always the best action to take.
This race was always going to be close. Sure there could be break away from either side but its far more likely that it will be a close contest and I remain confident that Harris-Walz will win on the current trajectory but again - not gonna be easy and its gonna be close.
This week is gonna be bumpy and its gonna feel like an emotional roller coaster. I for one, will be living out of a suitcase while looking and feeling like one of the dystopian characters in the Road Warrior. Five cities, four book signings, three keynotes, guest lecturing at a university, a dozen radio and TV interviews currently scheduled and its certain to get nutty with the debate so if I get a little grouchy - a little grace and kind wishes please.
I’m gonna be direct here - I’m not liking where things are at with Republican voters nor Latino voters. Yes, it is fixable but best case at the moment is it’s looking like 2020 and we’re leaving opportunities on the table - worst case is there’s slippage among both groups and that’s putting the vaunted “Bannon Line” number out of reach. NYT/Siena poll has GOP defections at 4% (it was 6% in 2020 and higher in every battleground state which it still likely is) and Latino numbers for Trump at 42% (at the same point in 2020 that number was 31%).
And don’t give me the excuse that you can’t compare a 2020 poll to a 2024 poll. I mean I’ll accept that is technically true as long as you accept that no matter how you slice it its not good.
Liz and Dick Cheney have come out in support of Harris. A record number of Republicans have signed on to the Harris campaign. At the same time Republicans are at the highest levels of support for Trump than at any time…ever.
Folks, this is gonna be tough race. A close one. You owe it to yourself and the country to be honest with yourself and everyone about that. We’re gonna be fine but only if we stop deluding ourselves of that fact.
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SEPT 8 - The Bumpy Week Ahead