Long-time followers of MikeDrop and The Lincoln Project in 2020 will know that I have a different perspective on interpreting polls compared to what you’re likely hearing on social media and cable news.
Why is that?
Because I actively run campaigns…my firm is polling dozens of races across the country, and I want to share insights from a professional’s point of view, rather than relying on pundits, talking heads, or “strategists”’ who haven’t run a race in the past 20 years (if ever).
One of the most important things to consider is movement: the direction a candidate is heading. In my estimation, this is more important than the horserace for a host of reasons I discuss here.
I will also reiterate the significance of the 50% threshold, my dislike for polls with “leaners,” and how campaigns utilize “tracking” polls.
MikeDrop - The Polls Are Moving