White Smoke in Dark Times. When Papal Elections Change History.

How Papal Conclaves in Times of Global Chaos Can Shape History beyond the Vatican Walls.

Eugenio Pacelli, before he became Pope Pius XII, during a 1929 visit to Berlin as the Vatican’s secretary of state. Keystone (Getty Images)

In moments of global uncertainty, the selection of a spiritual leader for over a billion Catholics carries implications that extend far beyond the Vatican's walls. The Catholic Church’s political influence has transcended political boundaries for its entire existence, and the next Pope selected during this conclave will face a world transforming, devolving, and emerging all at the same time.

Of course, the Church, like humanity, has been here before.

The 1939 papal conclave, occurring on the precipice of humanity's most devastating conflict, exemplifies how these ancient ceremonies can become pivotal historical inflection points. When Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli emerged as Pope Pius XII from that conclave, neither he nor the voting cardinals could have fully comprehended how consequential their decision would prove in the face of approaching darkness. The shadow of Nazism descending over Europe was becoming apparent and the College of Cardinals clearly responded to the political and military threat with practical considerations in selecting the heir to Saint Peter. This isn’t to say that the practical considerations of man are not the divine hand of Providence, but it’s not often we find the hand of God in the brass knuckle tactics of politics.

The timing of a conclave often amplifies its historical importance, and we may be witnessing another such pivotal moment. The 1939 gathering took place when Europe stood at the precipice. Pope Pius XI's papacy concluded on February 10, 1939, as Hitler had already annexed Austria and absorbed the Sudetenland, with Poland soon to follow within months. One can only imagine the solemn responsibility felt by those 62 cardinals assembled in the Sistine Chapel on March 1st.

They knew the gravity of their choice. As the blunt-speaking Pius XI's reign ended, the Church wanted someone... different. Someone who could play the diplomatic game through the inevitable turmoil ahead. The cardinals deliberately pivoted from Pius XI's confrontational approach toward someone they trusted to navigate the Church through a global catastrophe with some diplomatic wisdom.

Cardinal Pacelli was the Holy See's diplomatic exemplar, former Secretary of State, and Camerlengo. His selection was swift and decisive. The 1939 conclave concluded after just three ballots on March 2nd (providentially, Pacelli's birthday), making it the shortest conclave of the 20th century.

This efficiency reflected remarkable consensus. The cardinals recognized precisely what was needed as the world stood on the edge of catastrophe. As both Secretary of State and Camerlengo, the new Holy Father had devoted years to navigating the complex currents of international diplomacy.

Cardinal Francesco Marchetti Selvaggiani later quipped: "If angels had voted, they would've elected Elia Dalla Costa. If demons had voted, they would've elected me. Instead, men voted." That human element, the cold calculation of which leader might best navigate a crisis, drives conclave decisions during these pivotal moments. And maybe that human pragmatism, choosing an expert in worldly affairs, was the surest sign of divine inspiration, not its absence.

Pacelli's election also transcended several historical patterns. He became the first member of the Roman Curia to ascend to the papacy since 1831 and the first Roman-born pontiff since 1721. These distinctions highlighted how the cardinals prioritized institutional experience and diplomatic wisdom during this critical juncture in history.

The selection of Pius XII proved profoundly consequential. His pontificate spanned from 1939 to 1958, encompassing World War II, the Holocaust, post-war reconstruction, the dropping of the atomic bomb, and the early Cold War. His actions (and what he didn't do) still have historians arguing.

When the Vatican Archives from Pius XII's papacy were opened in 2020, after decades of scholarly interest, researchers discovered evidence of discreet diplomatic communications between the Holy Father and Hitler, initiated shortly after Pacelli's election. These revelations complicated our understanding of his papacy and showed how leadership choices made during conclaves can influence history in unforeseen ways.

I remember reading "Hitler's Pope" as a fresh Georgetown grad, not coincidentally America's oldest Catholic university that also houses the premier diplomatic school in the country, the School of Foreign Service. A pretty good place to grapple with Catholic ideals alongside the messy, unsavory, often unethical demands of diplomacy.

Did Pius XII do enough to confront Nazi atrocities and save Jewish lives? It's still contentious. Some historians argue his behind-the-scenes approach saved countless lives, while others see a moral failure in the face of genocide. This ongoing debate highlights how papal elections during critical historical transitions can have repercussions far beyond religious considerations.

The 1939 conclave exemplifies a pattern we see throughout Church history. In transitional eras, papal elections often swing between contrasting leadership styles, diplomat versus doctrinal hardliner, reformer versus traditionalist. These shifts reveal the Church's attempts to adapt to changing global circumstances.

After World War II, we saw it again. When Pius XII died in 1958, the College elected elderly Cardinal Angelo Roncalli, who became John XXIII. This "transitional pope" shocked everyone by calling the Second Vatican Council, fundamentally transforming Catholic practice for a rapidly changing post-war world. Once again, a conclave during a global transition became a hinge point of history.

In a fitting metaphor for papal transitions during uncertain times, the 1939 election ended with a moment of confusion. When white smoke signaling a successful election appeared above the Sistine Chapel at 5:30 p.m. on March 2nd, it bizarrely started turning black, creating momentary confusion about whether they'd actually picked someone.

Monsignor Vincenzo Santoro, the conclave's secretary, had to send special confirmation to Vatican Radio to clarify that yes, Pacelli had indeed been elected. This momentary uncertainty, white smoke turning black, clarity giving way to confusion, reflects the ambiguity surrounding leadership transitions during historical inflection points. The outcomes of such choices rarely appear in stark black and white, but in complex shades of gray, especially when viewed through history's lens.

Like that confusing smoke, the full significance of any papal election during transitional times isn't immediately obvious. Only with time does history reveal the true impact of those moments when the world waits for smoke to billow from a chapel chimney, announcing decisions that may shape centuries to come.

As we wait for white smoke and a new pope, we'd be wise to remember that our world is transforming into something new. The next pope will inherit a world caught in unprecedented times: a polarized global landscape where Trump's second term is challenging traditional alliances, China and Russia are flexing their muscles, and the Middle East remains a powder keg after the Gaza war fallout. Consider also the climate crisis that has transitioned from theoretical discourse to manifest reality with profound stewardship implications for our common home, as Pope Francis articulated in the papal encyclical Laudato Si'. All while the rapid emergence of AI transforms economies at a pace that challenges even the most diligent moral theologians to discern its proper place within God's creation.

The next pontiff will need to be part diplomat, part prophet, and part miracle worker to navigate a Catholic Church that's hemorrhaging members in the West while growing in the Global South. Say a prayer, or just spare a thought if you're not Catholic or religious, for the conclave. Whether you believe it or not, the next pope is likely to influence world history in ways we can't yet imagine. Given today's challenges, we hope that Providence provides both urgency and wisdom to guide the cardinal electors in this momentous responsibility.