What To Watch On Election Night

The Bellwether Counties that tell us who is going to win.

Mike Madrid

and

Lucas Holtz

Nov 04, 2024

As we turn our eyes to Election Day we’ve assembled the key counties to watch to tell us all we need to know

Election Day is tomorrow and I’ll be posting some final predictions here on Substack mid-day tomorrow.

I know there’s a lot of anxiety mixed with rising optimism, or as the meme says “I’m feeling nauseously optimistic”. So, since I know you all will keep looking for data to get that last rush of political adrenaline you love to hate I’m including some things to watch from me and Lucas Holtz.

First, let me say again I feel good about the race. I always have. Nothing’s changed.

Second, Lucas goes through some of the Bellwether counties you should look at to get a good look at what’s likely to happen.

My own advice: Watch Virginia to get the earliest sense of how the night is gonna go. Virginia is not a battleground state but it counts very early and is pretty representative of the demographics that will determine the election. If Virginia is called early with strong Harris support from blue counties in Northern Virginia it’s gonna be a good night. It means her margins driven by women in the suburbs are breaking big for Harris and are likely to be replicated everywhere.

This is essentially what the Selzer poll in Iowa was telling us, and Virginia will tell us if that’s accurate or not.

If Virginia is close - it’s gonna be a long night.

Also keep an eye on Orange County, California…this is a much longer play because it will take weeks to certify the key races in California because, well…California.

Orange County has a high number of college-educated non-white voters which offers a unique peek into the future of what the parties and the country are becoming.

I’ll offer more predictions and things to look for tomorrow but until then, keep these counties in focus because they’ll tell you everything you need to know about the election tomorrow.

As we head into election night, I put together a list of some of the counties that I’ll be keeping a close eye on. Bellwether counties have historically performed in line with the outcome of statewide races, and these can give some early insight on election night as to how the state will move; however, these should not be viewed as gospel bellwethers either. I also included a list of watch counties that cover some core parts of Harris’s coalition – namely suburban college-educated, Black, and Latino electorates.

Keep an eye out if Harris is hitting or surpassing Biden’s percentages in these counties (2020 Prez D column) – especially the yellow highlighted bellwether counties – this can be seen as the winning share of the vote that Harris needs to reach to win.

Ballot Reporting in the Battlegrounds

I also want to set some expectations for when we’ll start to see actual results tallied on the big board and when we can expect battleground states to be called. The Harris Campaign began circulating the sheet below to set out a timeline for votes being processed and counted.

To sum this up, I did a green light, yellow light, and red light for which states we should expect results to be posted fastest in:

🟢 Georgia - Early in-person and early absentee ballots will be reported by 8 pm EST – 70-75% of the total vote. ~90% of the total vote is expected by 10:30 pm.

🟢 North Carolina - Early in-person and absentee ballots will be reported first at 7:30 pm EST, followed by Election Day votes. ~98% of the vote is expected by 1 am EST.

🟡 Michigan - 90% of absentees are expected to be processed before Election Day.

🟡 Pennsylvania - Allegheny County expects to have most of their vote tabulated almost exactly when polls close. Allegheny will be a good early indicator to watch in PA. But if the state comes down to Philadelphia, it may be a longer wait.

🟡 Wisconsin - Absentee ballots aren’t scanned until Election Day. Expect a possible red mirage with Trump leading and Harris clawing background.

🔴 Arizona - A significant chunk of results are posted at 10 pm EST. Still, Maricopa County could take until at least Wednesday at 5 am EST to report Election Day vote, and Election Day mail-ins will take longer.

🔴 Nevada - Most of the state votes by mail, and it could take days to count all the mail-in ballots that have been dropped late.

If it’s a good night for Harris, she can win with the Blue Wall states and/or Georgia/North Carolina, and we won’t be waiting for the more drawn-out processes in Arizona and Nevada. If it’s a closer night, we may be waiting until Wednesday early AM for any of the first five states to be called. If Trump is doing well, then buckle up for Arizona and Nevada to be called closer to Thursday.

Follow me on Election Night Twitter as I’ll be updating on how Harris is performing vs Biden and what Harris will need to hit with the remaining votes as they’re coming in!