Thoughts on Kansas? The white rural population is in steep decline, the Latino population is growing rapidly in the rural southwest and the Kansas City area, and college educated whites in the KC area (plus college towns like Lawrence) are growing too and trending Blue. Latino turnout rates are currently very low. Would Dems be better off investing there than say, Iowa?
Kansas, like Utah, have distinct Republican cultures. I think Kansas has a unique opening at the moment to elect a non-Republican to the Senate for this first time in…forever.
Will this make a difference; Senator Ruben Gallego is considering a 2028 presidential run, emphasizing that Democrats must win back Latino voters to succeed. He pointed to declining Latino support in 2024 and argued that reconnecting with that base is essential for future elections. Gallego also said he is weighing personal factors, including his family and whether he can balance a campaign with being present as a father.
elliot - I was a fan/donor/voter for Ruben before moving back Midwest. My take is, there's a lot to like. I'd be concerned how the most progressive Dems will accept some of his opinions & potential policies. The Southwest has some attitudinal features that may not resonate as well in coastal urban areas. AZ has some libertarian streaks, some pragmatic compromise aspects, some populist elements. I think Gallego embodies his home state. I lived south of his state & US House districts, knew of him & really got excited for his US Senate run. He moderated some past positions during that campaign.
I guess that's part of the process. Everybody makes their best case, maybe makes some adjustments to appeal to the widest range of voters, compromise on an issue but not on core values... For 2028 I hope our anti-authoritarian compatriots won't demand "perfect" on some single issue when we need to get behind our best candidate, whoever makes it thru the primaries.
All that said, I'd feel more positive about the senior Senator from AZ making that run! Knowing what he and Gabby Giffords have already sacrificed for our country, I'd say, "no pressure, Mark - you DON'T 'owe it to us' - we owe both of you and wish you Godspeed for any ways you may choose to continue in serving our country... or in enjoying the peaceful retirement you've earned & deserve."
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion projects were created to unite Americans through an understanding of different cultures and languages. In education, the term Cultural Competence was introduced to train teachers of bias behaviors that many educators don’t realize they carry into their classrooms. The issues of “mansplaining” and “white privilege” are exposed and no longer hold power. These are excellent times for the organizing strategy you have explained. La lucha sigue! 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽
Great article and it explains a lot that I can agree with. I am a more optimistic person and want to see this country move forward and away from the grievances. The past is the past and we have to look at what worked and what didn't and create optimism for the future. No more negativity that keeps us in the past.
I find this piece to be strangely familiar to another piece written by a (somewhat) progressive demographer in Australia discussing our local politics! It starts from a different place but ends up with a similar conclusion.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that you cab disseminate this piece to your vast network of colleagues and strategists. There are so many current and future, especially Latino, leaders poised to take the torch and lead us to this more vibrant, motivational place. The country Dems have been fighting to keep. Thanks Mike. This is inspiring.
This is such an insightful view, offering some solid observations & evidence for the potential of a growing coalition of voters. Mike's alluding to some history we need to study. The union movement helped build this country, but we don't have the coal mines & manufacturing plants to organize in the 21st century. The civil rights movement centered on overdue justice after hundreds of years of slavery & Jim Crow - progress made, NOT "mission accomplished." And now we have a growing population of people whose heritage is Latino and Asian & Pacific Islander.
How do we maintain ties within the Democratic Party to all those who've danced together these last hundred years AND reach out and connect with our evolving population of fellow Americans?
Thank you, Mike. Great information. I appreciate your insight. If anyone is curious about learning more about Mikes' thoughts about grievance politics, I'd suggest reading Jonathan Metzl's “Dying of Whiteness.”
The thing I never understood about the Blue Wall is that it was a national strategy for winning the electoral college. Yet, it was presented as the better alternative to a fifty-state strategy of organizing and building a stable base of power and developing seasoned candidates everywhere. The Blue Wall was pure gamesmanship. It wasn’t about state and local political power building upward to federal power. It was just to win the presidency by threading a very fine needle and leaving voters in “red” states to twist in the wind otherwise. Even if the Blue Wall strategy produced a Democratic president, just winning the presidency was insufficient to meet the actual needs of voters. And, I would argue it actively harmed our democratic functioning.
A Democrat in the White House didn’t stop Texas Republicans from becoming more and more extreme over the years. However, fielding state and local Democrats as a counter-balance would have mitigated Republican extremism, even if Texas didn't turn fully Blue. Of course, political parties are prone to becoming self-interested bureacracies just perpetuating insiders' power. But at some point, someone needed to recognize a political party is meant to serve the public good. A political party should be an organizational vehicle for democratic representation, not a place for political hacks to just take up space and suck down salaries.
I think the Blue Wall was not just a comforting fiction for the Democratic Party, it was a tactic to avoid doing real politics in all those stubborn rural districts and precincts in the middle of the country. I remember how much the political press used to gripe about being stuck in podunk Crawford, Texas covering Bush. I thought that open contempt was rather unbecoming at the time, but relatively harmless. However, I now think DC Democrats had the same bias against the middle of the country. It very well may have been an underlying factor in the party clinging to a poor strategy for too long.
I think you might be right about a “comforting fiction”.
But I also think that Obama brought a fake sense of security because he was so dominant in the Midwest. I mean he actually won Indiana once! Crushed in Iowa twice. So, it seemed like an obvious foundation.
Plus Obama brought all the number crunchers. Good for defeating Clinton in the primary. Good for winning Presidential elections. Not good for continual organizing and relationship building outside of campaign cycles.
All of this seems to be the opposite of what most people are thinking they're current reality is. Which is another way of saying: it rings true. After all, you and I are not "most people".
Your first-hand insights on trends in the Hispanic community are intriguing, along with your insightful overall experience and research. Here's what else I would add to this absolutely needed New Southern Strategy. Democratic strategists and campaigners need to cease and desist in two areas:
They need to stop inundating our inboxes with desperate, panicked pleas for "rush donations". They need to stop looking down their noses at the South and start recognizing and supporting the courageous acts and organizing of Southern progressives; they may be few in number, but - news flash - they are up North, too (as we are elsewhere).
Then, alongside that last point, get them off their backsides and campaigning, *meeting people* on the back roads, small towns, and so-called conservative strongholds, and actually talk to them. There are many such people who have been written off as hopelessly Republican who have *said* they would vote for anyone who actually spoke to their concerns.
Do you know that Montana (my mother's home state) was the second closest race after North Carolina, in the 2008 election? I researched that myself; I have seen that nowhere else, nor have I heard anyone else mention it. McCain won Montana, but not by much more than Obama won North Carolina. Fun fact - and potentially useful, methinks.
Anyway, I'm staying tuned for more from you, amigo. From a "birth Southerner" raised mainly up North and in the Midwest (Canada too), currently in DC/Maryland.
Interesting! Where I live lost all the GM plants, then we lost most of our biggest corporations to the south.
My blue collar (irony) friends are skeptical and some of the smartest people I know. That’s why my world has been so rocked by the believing of lies and acceptance of every horrible behavior.
I’m further rocked by the increasing knowledge of corruption in our state legislature. The good news in your findings is that we probably should NOT be deciding state. 🥲
@Mike - what are the commitments and issues that force Democrats to chose between the sunbelt and rust belt?
I realize that months before an election you need to make strategic choices of money, candidate time, etc. But for the rest of the time, shouldn’t Democrats be investing everywhere, even the places that they have no immediate chance to win in?
This is very well written & makes a ton of sense! Will the DNC & State Dems listen & adjust accordingly? 🤷♀️
Thoughts on Kansas? The white rural population is in steep decline, the Latino population is growing rapidly in the rural southwest and the Kansas City area, and college educated whites in the KC area (plus college towns like Lawrence) are growing too and trending Blue. Latino turnout rates are currently very low. Would Dems be better off investing there than say, Iowa?
Kansas, like Utah, have distinct Republican cultures. I think Kansas has a unique opening at the moment to elect a non-Republican to the Senate for this first time in…forever.
Yes I would certainly invest there
Thoughts on whether this candidate is the one to flip the Kansas Senate seat? https://www.greatplainsumc.org/newsdetail/hamilton-decides-to-run-for-senate-as-a-democrat-19720152
Will this make a difference; Senator Ruben Gallego is considering a 2028 presidential run, emphasizing that Democrats must win back Latino voters to succeed. He pointed to declining Latino support in 2024 and argued that reconnecting with that base is essential for future elections. Gallego also said he is weighing personal factors, including his family and whether he can balance a campaign with being present as a father.
Yes it would make a huge difference
elliot - I was a fan/donor/voter for Ruben before moving back Midwest. My take is, there's a lot to like. I'd be concerned how the most progressive Dems will accept some of his opinions & potential policies. The Southwest has some attitudinal features that may not resonate as well in coastal urban areas. AZ has some libertarian streaks, some pragmatic compromise aspects, some populist elements. I think Gallego embodies his home state. I lived south of his state & US House districts, knew of him & really got excited for his US Senate run. He moderated some past positions during that campaign.
I guess that's part of the process. Everybody makes their best case, maybe makes some adjustments to appeal to the widest range of voters, compromise on an issue but not on core values... For 2028 I hope our anti-authoritarian compatriots won't demand "perfect" on some single issue when we need to get behind our best candidate, whoever makes it thru the primaries.
All that said, I'd feel more positive about the senior Senator from AZ making that run! Knowing what he and Gabby Giffords have already sacrificed for our country, I'd say, "no pressure, Mark - you DON'T 'owe it to us' - we owe both of you and wish you Godspeed for any ways you may choose to continue in serving our country... or in enjoying the peaceful retirement you've earned & deserve."
I think he is popular in the Democratic party, pragmatic and deserves to be taken seriously. He is what we need.
Wow! Mike, you packed a lot of information into this article! Great job!
As a teenage activist: Chicana of the 1970s I get it!
Sincerely,
American Mestiza (Chicana). I’m not an immigrant. My people lived on this land (Western Hemisphere) long before there was a border.
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion projects were created to unite Americans through an understanding of different cultures and languages. In education, the term Cultural Competence was introduced to train teachers of bias behaviors that many educators don’t realize they carry into their classrooms. The issues of “mansplaining” and “white privilege” are exposed and no longer hold power. These are excellent times for the organizing strategy you have explained. La lucha sigue! 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽
Great article and it explains a lot that I can agree with. I am a more optimistic person and want to see this country move forward and away from the grievances. The past is the past and we have to look at what worked and what didn't and create optimism for the future. No more negativity that keeps us in the past.
Love your work, Mike!
I find this piece to be strangely familiar to another piece written by a (somewhat) progressive demographer in Australia discussing our local politics! It starts from a different place but ends up with a similar conclusion.
Here's the piece:
https://substack.com/@fatoldduffer/note/c-230975353?r=381m6d
Sorry. Wrong link. Try this one:
https://substack.com/@alexfein/note/p-191638685?r=381m6d
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that you cab disseminate this piece to your vast network of colleagues and strategists. There are so many current and future, especially Latino, leaders poised to take the torch and lead us to this more vibrant, motivational place. The country Dems have been fighting to keep. Thanks Mike. This is inspiring.
Excellent column!
Thanks Doc! 🙏🏼
This is such an insightful view, offering some solid observations & evidence for the potential of a growing coalition of voters. Mike's alluding to some history we need to study. The union movement helped build this country, but we don't have the coal mines & manufacturing plants to organize in the 21st century. The civil rights movement centered on overdue justice after hundreds of years of slavery & Jim Crow - progress made, NOT "mission accomplished." And now we have a growing population of people whose heritage is Latino and Asian & Pacific Islander.
How do we maintain ties within the Democratic Party to all those who've danced together these last hundred years AND reach out and connect with our evolving population of fellow Americans?
This is the kind of learning I'm here for
Thank you, Mike. Great information. I appreciate your insight. If anyone is curious about learning more about Mikes' thoughts about grievance politics, I'd suggest reading Jonathan Metzl's “Dying of Whiteness.”
The thing I never understood about the Blue Wall is that it was a national strategy for winning the electoral college. Yet, it was presented as the better alternative to a fifty-state strategy of organizing and building a stable base of power and developing seasoned candidates everywhere. The Blue Wall was pure gamesmanship. It wasn’t about state and local political power building upward to federal power. It was just to win the presidency by threading a very fine needle and leaving voters in “red” states to twist in the wind otherwise. Even if the Blue Wall strategy produced a Democratic president, just winning the presidency was insufficient to meet the actual needs of voters. And, I would argue it actively harmed our democratic functioning.
A Democrat in the White House didn’t stop Texas Republicans from becoming more and more extreme over the years. However, fielding state and local Democrats as a counter-balance would have mitigated Republican extremism, even if Texas didn't turn fully Blue. Of course, political parties are prone to becoming self-interested bureacracies just perpetuating insiders' power. But at some point, someone needed to recognize a political party is meant to serve the public good. A political party should be an organizational vehicle for democratic representation, not a place for political hacks to just take up space and suck down salaries.
I think the Blue Wall was not just a comforting fiction for the Democratic Party, it was a tactic to avoid doing real politics in all those stubborn rural districts and precincts in the middle of the country. I remember how much the political press used to gripe about being stuck in podunk Crawford, Texas covering Bush. I thought that open contempt was rather unbecoming at the time, but relatively harmless. However, I now think DC Democrats had the same bias against the middle of the country. It very well may have been an underlying factor in the party clinging to a poor strategy for too long.
I think you might be right about a “comforting fiction”.
But I also think that Obama brought a fake sense of security because he was so dominant in the Midwest. I mean he actually won Indiana once! Crushed in Iowa twice. So, it seemed like an obvious foundation.
Plus Obama brought all the number crunchers. Good for defeating Clinton in the primary. Good for winning Presidential elections. Not good for continual organizing and relationship building outside of campaign cycles.
So informative! Thank you Mike.
All of this seems to be the opposite of what most people are thinking they're current reality is. Which is another way of saying: it rings true. After all, you and I are not "most people".
Your first-hand insights on trends in the Hispanic community are intriguing, along with your insightful overall experience and research. Here's what else I would add to this absolutely needed New Southern Strategy. Democratic strategists and campaigners need to cease and desist in two areas:
They need to stop inundating our inboxes with desperate, panicked pleas for "rush donations". They need to stop looking down their noses at the South and start recognizing and supporting the courageous acts and organizing of Southern progressives; they may be few in number, but - news flash - they are up North, too (as we are elsewhere).
Then, alongside that last point, get them off their backsides and campaigning, *meeting people* on the back roads, small towns, and so-called conservative strongholds, and actually talk to them. There are many such people who have been written off as hopelessly Republican who have *said* they would vote for anyone who actually spoke to their concerns.
Do you know that Montana (my mother's home state) was the second closest race after North Carolina, in the 2008 election? I researched that myself; I have seen that nowhere else, nor have I heard anyone else mention it. McCain won Montana, but not by much more than Obama won North Carolina. Fun fact - and potentially useful, methinks.
Anyway, I'm staying tuned for more from you, amigo. From a "birth Southerner" raised mainly up North and in the Midwest (Canada too), currently in DC/Maryland.
Interesting! Where I live lost all the GM plants, then we lost most of our biggest corporations to the south.
My blue collar (irony) friends are skeptical and some of the smartest people I know. That’s why my world has been so rocked by the believing of lies and acceptance of every horrible behavior.
I’m further rocked by the increasing knowledge of corruption in our state legislature. The good news in your findings is that we probably should NOT be deciding state. 🥲
@Mike - what are the commitments and issues that force Democrats to chose between the sunbelt and rust belt?
I realize that months before an election you need to make strategic choices of money, candidate time, etc. But for the rest of the time, shouldn’t Democrats be investing everywhere, even the places that they have no immediate chance to win in?