Excellent, on point writing! Blind loyalty to Trump will continue to be devastating for our U.S.A. as a world leader. Putin is surely Lovin' it. Our "mid-terms" this November need massive voter turnout.
Trump has managed to make China look more stable, respectable - even more moral - than America. At least China didn't threaten to end Taiwanese civilisation.
Trump's bullying, lack of impulse control, and love of making things go BOOM sure makes China look like the less threatening of the major powers (the other being Putin, who is no one's friend).
Interesting piece Mike, and I'd like to add to the discussion with my own thoughts.
I've said it before and I will say it again, the decline of US superhegemony does not mean another power will occupy the same level of power the US possessed post cold war. More than likely it'll be a more multipolar world order, which is more of the norm rather than a single power being near all-powerful.
You correctly identified that China's rise is more the US declining than anything else. They have their own set of problems that stymie that rise, like the aging and declining population, deflation problems, consumption rates not rising to desired levels, some industries leaving the country, economic slowdown, an arguably worse debt problem than the US, as well as some other self inflicted problems that have come my attention these past couple of months, starting with Xi purges of the past couple of years, including purges of competent military officers and lawmakers. A lot of the claimed reasoning has been not enough party orthodoxy, but probably not sufficient loyalty to Xi as well, who is becoming increasingly paranoid by the looks of things. These are not the actions a nation needs to take to rise to the top, getting rid of political, economic and military leaders, for less loyalty to the head honcho and party than the high bar set, in spite of their competency. They are actions that hurt that rise.
Another problem that has come to my attention is the roll back of many political and economic reforms made starting in Deng Xiaoping's government, reforms that played a major role in making China successful. The aim of undoing these reforms has been to concentrate more political and economic power in himself and the party. Having very few actors control the economy this way does not help a nation rise to power, but hinders, since now there are fewer forces to help self correct whenever in the wrong path, and no one is going to tell the CCP they are sending the economy over the edge.
All these problems are having an effect on China, and they will continue to worsen as time goes on. Which is why China's rise is more about the decline of the US, but different from China, there are mechanisms in place for the US to self correct, both economic and political. There is no way to remove Xi from power, or any leader that succeeds him, so if they insist in errors, like how XI is doing with purges and undoing reforms, it'll only make all the other listed problems China has worse.
In short, China is doing it's fair share of self stabbing, only less noticable and less eye popping than the US, but there are ways for the US to self correct, which is an advantage over China's system. Today's election in Hungary could be a good example on how a country like the US could self correct, since Hungary under Orban has become more authoritarian, economically worse and diplomatically isolated. The new government of Hungary has the potential to turn these things around.
Very interesting. I agree with almost all of what you’ve written here but there’s one area of key disagreement: Authoritarianism is helping China rise at the moment.
I don’t see it as a hindrance at all. That’s one of the unfortunate characteristics emerging in this digital age. The evidence increasingly looks like deliberative democracy is a weakness as information flows and technological advancement benefit agility rather than process.
For sure China has severe structural problems but, at the moment, democratic processes don’t seem to be helpful in this era. I’m certainly not saying that’s good I’m just saying it is.
And it’s more than just democratic processes - The US elected Trump twice during this era…darned near close to three times. Authoritarian sentiment is rising in the US - not faltering.
Indeed, a very interesting discussion here. I try not to miss any of the one on one's you have with Robert, though with the news cycle showing no signs of slowing - or even the buck stopping anywhere - I'm finding myself starting one video when another one pops up - you and Robert again. LOL- keep it up, though. I'll keep up as best I can.
One thing Giglio Val's comments highlight is how complicated things get whenever China is involved, and your response amplifies it even further. One thing I brought up in Robert's discussion thread was the possibility of Canada's influence in all of this. It seemed to me like it was kind of dismissed as - and I really dislike this newfangled word but will use it anyway - a kind of "hopium", because I wondered aloud if Canada might nudge China in a less oppressive direction on its home front. I wasn't saying it was likely, just asking the question. Because great changes have begun with less (although I'm not naive enough to think it will happen next year, the year after, or even next decade).
Something that was mentioned to me about China many moons ago that has stayed with me: we in North America are in kindergarten compared to the Chinese when it comes to politics and social issues. Not that they're better, just more sophisticated and experienced, not to speak of ancient. And a visiting student from China once told me, "in China, everybody knows what the law is, and what's expected; here, *nobody* knows what the law is, or what's expected." And this was before Tiannamen Square.
We can see all of this playing out. Heck, if China can broker a cease-fire in Iran, whatever I may think of their socio-political system I'm all for it. And I do NOT like or approve of their system, especially their track record on human rights (a flat "F", where I sit). Which is why I entered the conversation when Canada was mentioned, and mentioned our ally in that context, naive as it may have come across.
Well, we don't have all the answers, but, as a sitting and former president on The West Wing said, at least we're asking the right questions.
I wonder if both China and the US weren't better off, and on better paths forward, before Trump decided to do all the things that are undermining the US. China grew in part because of our market (and stealing our technology). We grew through buying parts and things more cheaply and efficinetly from China. Now we are coming undone and devolving. Xi is tightening control partly in response to the instability Trump has created. Both of these leaders needed counterbalances that have weakened.
Yes, better off. We desperately needed "counterbalances" to Trump's arrogant behavior of alienating defense & trade partners, [including China] both in peace time and when joining Netanyahu's war.
Our system of "checks & balances" has been mostly disabled due to selfish politicians in Congress and a partisan Supreme Court.
We can turn this around, but it won't be easy and will take time, IF our citizens take their civic duty seriously and show up this November in record numbers. Our Constitution could use some serious updates too, but that may be wishful thinking.
Another small moment you wouldn’t be aware of… the Australian Prime Minister has been doing a lot of shuttle and phone diplomacy around the region to shore up our fuel supplies thanks to this insane war. Most notably, he’s been on the phone with the Chinese premier to try and work out how to manage the crisis. He hasn’t spoken at all to Donald Trump. The same could be said of almost every other leader in Asia. The American Era is over.
I hate to say it like this, but at least as tough as things were getting in the US, we were always looked upon positively as the dominant superpower. China was catching up, but we still had the key advantages. Now Trump has fast-tracked that progression into overdrive, and in a way that ultimately harms us long term. China may be the new superpower as a result.
Whatever can be said about Mike, if you agree with him mostly or not, he is on top of his game and ahead of the pack regularly.
Great post! Your statement that the U.S. “believes its past performance guarantees its future relevance and spending global power credibility like it is in infinite supply” might hold up if not for the incompetence & arrogance of the tRump regime.
This analysis is so clear, cogent, and grounded in historical perspective, as always -- cannot thank you enough, Mike!
Another factor is that the US came out of World War II far ahead of the rest of the world economically. Not only China, but other countries in Asia (which we once provided with foreign aid) have surged ahead, as have countries that left the former Soviet Union plus Brazil, Mexico, and other Latin American countries. We may yet have the largest economy and many advantages, but we're no longer a whale in a small pond.
Sadly we've withdrawn assistance from countries in Africa where we were making a life or death difference. That's not exactly the sign of a great power, is it?
Great piece Mike, as always. I work in the space industry, and a key discussion for the past few years has been the space race with China [1]. I've heard some arguments that it's not really a race because the dynamics with present-day China are different than the dynamics with Cold War Russia [2], but what do you think would be the impacts if China lands Taikonauts on the Moon before the US lands Astronauts?
To point out one really frustrating development in this area from the past couple weeks, a few days after the Artemis II mission launched, sending humans beyond low-earth-orbit for the first time in 54 years, the Presidential Budget Request was released and proposed the lowest budget for NASA since 1961, adjusted for inflation [3]. The PBR proposed similar cuts last year, although Congress ended up passing a NASA FY26 budget that was close to previous years. Hopefully that's the case for FY27, but I don't see how that approach to the budget will put us on track to beat China back to the Moon.
I've read that Trump has fired something like 119,000 scientists, too, including many from NASA. It's sad and shameful.
Sputnik supercharged federal funding of American science training and programs. Trump has set us back so far in so many areas and all the expenses of this stupid war, it's hard to see how we could rise to the challenge financially, even if we had the will to do so.
I am happy that you referenenced Robert Arnold's excellent article on this topic published yesterday. Your analysis here is spot on and some of it expands on a comment I left on Robert Arnold's post yesterday which I ended with: "In this current environment, China does not have to actively seek a more powerful role on the world stage. It just has to sit back and watch as Trump and his regime's tariffs, bullying attacks on sovereign nations, lack of diplomacy, dishonesty, and ignorance about how global relationships are changing continue creating fractures in the world order until the U.S.'s reputation is completely destroyed and its former allies seek out other strategic security and market partnerships to replace those once held with the US." Also, of note, the Washington Post published an article today titled, "China, Iran Weaponized the Global Economy to Beat the U.S. at its Own Game" that touches some of the topics discussed in this post by Mike. I would highly recommend reading it. All the pushback on the U.S. is the direct result of Trump's arrogance and miscalculations about how much power the U.S. currently holds in the changing global order; he has no one to blame but himself for his current woes.
Agreed for the most part. I think of the Iran War akin to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is a historic moment.
So completely agree that Trump is personally destroying America - thank you MAGA. China and Russia are clearly the beneficiaries of his incompetence and they are the "victors" in the short term. Having said that, each has their own problems. China has huge demographic and economic problems forthcoming. After 4 years, Russia still can't defeat Ukraine and is expending huge manpower and economic resources in the process. Overall, the longer term outlook for the world is very uncertain on how this will play out. There are just too many unknowns as we are in completely new territory where America is no longer playing the role it's played since the end of WWII. And as of today, America is not protecting the high seas, but actually engaged in blocking the high seas in Iran. How does that play out longer term for global trade and globalization? Could China now consider blockading Taiwan and shutting down high end semi-conductor production?
Probably wishful thinking on my part, but it's always interesting that no one mentions the EU in what happens going forward. What does the EU look like post-Iran and what is their role? Can they get their act together so to speak, in cross border ways that would lead them to wield more power? Probably too many borders with too many leaders to ever be a superpower, but as basically a conglomeration of countries with broadly equal values and interests and liberal democracies, I'm rooting for them to emerge onto the world stage in a bigger way, They clearly have shared interests in coming together militarily in a bigger way to defend against Russia and perhaps that will lead to other outcomes. And the EU has a huge economic relationship with China, importing more from China than we do, so can they play a role in containing China? Can they replace the US bringing liberal democracies like Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, etc. into the equation? Could Japan form a NATO in the Pacific to contain China militarily and economically? Asian countries are also huge importers on Chinese goods.
So stay tuned as this brave new world unfolds, but many, many unknowns right now.
Excellent, on point writing! Blind loyalty to Trump will continue to be devastating for our U.S.A. as a world leader. Putin is surely Lovin' it. Our "mid-terms" this November need massive voter turnout.
Trump has managed to make China look more stable, respectable - even more moral - than America. At least China didn't threaten to end Taiwanese civilisation.
Trump's bullying, lack of impulse control, and love of making things go BOOM sure makes China look like the less threatening of the major powers (the other being Putin, who is no one's friend).
Interesting piece Mike, and I'd like to add to the discussion with my own thoughts.
I've said it before and I will say it again, the decline of US superhegemony does not mean another power will occupy the same level of power the US possessed post cold war. More than likely it'll be a more multipolar world order, which is more of the norm rather than a single power being near all-powerful.
You correctly identified that China's rise is more the US declining than anything else. They have their own set of problems that stymie that rise, like the aging and declining population, deflation problems, consumption rates not rising to desired levels, some industries leaving the country, economic slowdown, an arguably worse debt problem than the US, as well as some other self inflicted problems that have come my attention these past couple of months, starting with Xi purges of the past couple of years, including purges of competent military officers and lawmakers. A lot of the claimed reasoning has been not enough party orthodoxy, but probably not sufficient loyalty to Xi as well, who is becoming increasingly paranoid by the looks of things. These are not the actions a nation needs to take to rise to the top, getting rid of political, economic and military leaders, for less loyalty to the head honcho and party than the high bar set, in spite of their competency. They are actions that hurt that rise.
Another problem that has come to my attention is the roll back of many political and economic reforms made starting in Deng Xiaoping's government, reforms that played a major role in making China successful. The aim of undoing these reforms has been to concentrate more political and economic power in himself and the party. Having very few actors control the economy this way does not help a nation rise to power, but hinders, since now there are fewer forces to help self correct whenever in the wrong path, and no one is going to tell the CCP they are sending the economy over the edge.
All these problems are having an effect on China, and they will continue to worsen as time goes on. Which is why China's rise is more about the decline of the US, but different from China, there are mechanisms in place for the US to self correct, both economic and political. There is no way to remove Xi from power, or any leader that succeeds him, so if they insist in errors, like how XI is doing with purges and undoing reforms, it'll only make all the other listed problems China has worse.
In short, China is doing it's fair share of self stabbing, only less noticable and less eye popping than the US, but there are ways for the US to self correct, which is an advantage over China's system. Today's election in Hungary could be a good example on how a country like the US could self correct, since Hungary under Orban has become more authoritarian, economically worse and diplomatically isolated. The new government of Hungary has the potential to turn these things around.
Hope this comment was interesting to you.
Very interesting. I agree with almost all of what you’ve written here but there’s one area of key disagreement: Authoritarianism is helping China rise at the moment.
I don’t see it as a hindrance at all. That’s one of the unfortunate characteristics emerging in this digital age. The evidence increasingly looks like deliberative democracy is a weakness as information flows and technological advancement benefit agility rather than process.
For sure China has severe structural problems but, at the moment, democratic processes don’t seem to be helpful in this era. I’m certainly not saying that’s good I’m just saying it is.
And it’s more than just democratic processes - The US elected Trump twice during this era…darned near close to three times. Authoritarian sentiment is rising in the US - not faltering.
Great thoughts! Appreciate your opinions here!!
Now there's a good question. How does democracy stay relevant in an era of fast information?
Let's take up the challenge to answer that question and do reform and adjustment as it needs doing, with great determination in our hearts.
On a side thing, I mentioned Hungary. I would love to read your thoughts on today's elections there.
Indeed, a very interesting discussion here. I try not to miss any of the one on one's you have with Robert, though with the news cycle showing no signs of slowing - or even the buck stopping anywhere - I'm finding myself starting one video when another one pops up - you and Robert again. LOL- keep it up, though. I'll keep up as best I can.
One thing Giglio Val's comments highlight is how complicated things get whenever China is involved, and your response amplifies it even further. One thing I brought up in Robert's discussion thread was the possibility of Canada's influence in all of this. It seemed to me like it was kind of dismissed as - and I really dislike this newfangled word but will use it anyway - a kind of "hopium", because I wondered aloud if Canada might nudge China in a less oppressive direction on its home front. I wasn't saying it was likely, just asking the question. Because great changes have begun with less (although I'm not naive enough to think it will happen next year, the year after, or even next decade).
Something that was mentioned to me about China many moons ago that has stayed with me: we in North America are in kindergarten compared to the Chinese when it comes to politics and social issues. Not that they're better, just more sophisticated and experienced, not to speak of ancient. And a visiting student from China once told me, "in China, everybody knows what the law is, and what's expected; here, *nobody* knows what the law is, or what's expected." And this was before Tiannamen Square.
We can see all of this playing out. Heck, if China can broker a cease-fire in Iran, whatever I may think of their socio-political system I'm all for it. And I do NOT like or approve of their system, especially their track record on human rights (a flat "F", where I sit). Which is why I entered the conversation when Canada was mentioned, and mentioned our ally in that context, naive as it may have come across.
Well, we don't have all the answers, but, as a sitting and former president on The West Wing said, at least we're asking the right questions.
I wonder if both China and the US weren't better off, and on better paths forward, before Trump decided to do all the things that are undermining the US. China grew in part because of our market (and stealing our technology). We grew through buying parts and things more cheaply and efficinetly from China. Now we are coming undone and devolving. Xi is tightening control partly in response to the instability Trump has created. Both of these leaders needed counterbalances that have weakened.
Yes, better off. We desperately needed "counterbalances" to Trump's arrogant behavior of alienating defense & trade partners, [including China] both in peace time and when joining Netanyahu's war.
Our system of "checks & balances" has been mostly disabled due to selfish politicians in Congress and a partisan Supreme Court.
We can turn this around, but it won't be easy and will take time, IF our citizens take their civic duty seriously and show up this November in record numbers. Our Constitution could use some serious updates too, but that may be wishful thinking.
Another small moment you wouldn’t be aware of… the Australian Prime Minister has been doing a lot of shuttle and phone diplomacy around the region to shore up our fuel supplies thanks to this insane war. Most notably, he’s been on the phone with the Chinese premier to try and work out how to manage the crisis. He hasn’t spoken at all to Donald Trump. The same could be said of almost every other leader in Asia. The American Era is over.
I hate to say it like this, but at least as tough as things were getting in the US, we were always looked upon positively as the dominant superpower. China was catching up, but we still had the key advantages. Now Trump has fast-tracked that progression into overdrive, and in a way that ultimately harms us long term. China may be the new superpower as a result.
Whatever can be said about Mike, if you agree with him mostly or not, he is on top of his game and ahead of the pack regularly.
Thank you kindly 🙏🏼
Great post! Your statement that the U.S. “believes its past performance guarantees its future relevance and spending global power credibility like it is in infinite supply” might hold up if not for the incompetence & arrogance of the tRump regime.
Excellent analysis of foreign affairs, trump falls on his face repeatedly, from the beginning assuming ''only I can fix it.''
Chinese culture reveres education. Ours does not. Beginning and end of story. We are watching the story unfold before our eyes.
Excellent article: your knowledge, research and expertise is inspiring to learn more!!!
We in the USA cannot live in a bubble of ignorance which this administration desires.
Hard to hit the “like ❤️” emoji. I appreciate your analysis,
…but it scares the hell out of me.
This analysis is so clear, cogent, and grounded in historical perspective, as always -- cannot thank you enough, Mike!
Another factor is that the US came out of World War II far ahead of the rest of the world economically. Not only China, but other countries in Asia (which we once provided with foreign aid) have surged ahead, as have countries that left the former Soviet Union plus Brazil, Mexico, and other Latin American countries. We may yet have the largest economy and many advantages, but we're no longer a whale in a small pond.
Sadly we've withdrawn assistance from countries in Africa where we were making a life or death difference. That's not exactly the sign of a great power, is it?
Great piece Mike, as always. I work in the space industry, and a key discussion for the past few years has been the space race with China [1]. I've heard some arguments that it's not really a race because the dynamics with present-day China are different than the dynamics with Cold War Russia [2], but what do you think would be the impacts if China lands Taikonauts on the Moon before the US lands Astronauts?
To point out one really frustrating development in this area from the past couple weeks, a few days after the Artemis II mission launched, sending humans beyond low-earth-orbit for the first time in 54 years, the Presidential Budget Request was released and proposed the lowest budget for NASA since 1961, adjusted for inflation [3]. The PBR proposed similar cuts last year, although Congress ended up passing a NASA FY26 budget that was close to previous years. Hopefully that's the case for FY27, but I don't see how that approach to the budget will put us on track to beat China back to the Moon.
[1] https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2026/0409/artemis-II-china-space-race
[2] https://www.planetary.org/planetary-radio/spe-us-china-space-race
[3] https://www.planetary.org/press-releases/the-planetary-society-urges-congress-to-reject-historic-cuts-to-nasa-again
I've read that Trump has fired something like 119,000 scientists, too, including many from NASA. It's sad and shameful.
Sputnik supercharged federal funding of American science training and programs. Trump has set us back so far in so many areas and all the expenses of this stupid war, it's hard to see how we could rise to the challenge financially, even if we had the will to do so.
Excellent complement to Robert's outstanding post, Mike.
"China is walking through." She has been for some time now.
My uncle called this era in 2025 when I was fired
I am happy that you referenenced Robert Arnold's excellent article on this topic published yesterday. Your analysis here is spot on and some of it expands on a comment I left on Robert Arnold's post yesterday which I ended with: "In this current environment, China does not have to actively seek a more powerful role on the world stage. It just has to sit back and watch as Trump and his regime's tariffs, bullying attacks on sovereign nations, lack of diplomacy, dishonesty, and ignorance about how global relationships are changing continue creating fractures in the world order until the U.S.'s reputation is completely destroyed and its former allies seek out other strategic security and market partnerships to replace those once held with the US." Also, of note, the Washington Post published an article today titled, "China, Iran Weaponized the Global Economy to Beat the U.S. at its Own Game" that touches some of the topics discussed in this post by Mike. I would highly recommend reading it. All the pushback on the U.S. is the direct result of Trump's arrogance and miscalculations about how much power the U.S. currently holds in the changing global order; he has no one to blame but himself for his current woes.
Agreed for the most part. I think of the Iran War akin to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is a historic moment.
So completely agree that Trump is personally destroying America - thank you MAGA. China and Russia are clearly the beneficiaries of his incompetence and they are the "victors" in the short term. Having said that, each has their own problems. China has huge demographic and economic problems forthcoming. After 4 years, Russia still can't defeat Ukraine and is expending huge manpower and economic resources in the process. Overall, the longer term outlook for the world is very uncertain on how this will play out. There are just too many unknowns as we are in completely new territory where America is no longer playing the role it's played since the end of WWII. And as of today, America is not protecting the high seas, but actually engaged in blocking the high seas in Iran. How does that play out longer term for global trade and globalization? Could China now consider blockading Taiwan and shutting down high end semi-conductor production?
Probably wishful thinking on my part, but it's always interesting that no one mentions the EU in what happens going forward. What does the EU look like post-Iran and what is their role? Can they get their act together so to speak, in cross border ways that would lead them to wield more power? Probably too many borders with too many leaders to ever be a superpower, but as basically a conglomeration of countries with broadly equal values and interests and liberal democracies, I'm rooting for them to emerge onto the world stage in a bigger way, They clearly have shared interests in coming together militarily in a bigger way to defend against Russia and perhaps that will lead to other outcomes. And the EU has a huge economic relationship with China, importing more from China than we do, so can they play a role in containing China? Can they replace the US bringing liberal democracies like Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, etc. into the equation? Could Japan form a NATO in the Pacific to contain China militarily and economically? Asian countries are also huge importers on Chinese goods.
So stay tuned as this brave new world unfolds, but many, many unknowns right now.