Prediction
Three dynamics that may lead to a bigger win that aren't reflected in the polls.
The fundamentals of this race have not changed since 2022. As the coalitions in the country transform both parties, Democrats and Republicans have been forced to change both their assumptions and tactics. Ironically, Democrats are trying to turn out wealthier, whiter more educated voters and Republicans are trying to turn out more young, non-college educated lower information Hispanic voters.
I have been critical of Democrats’ inability to break through with Latinos despite four publicly announced early advertising blitzes. None of them worked. And as recently as a week ago it was clear Trump was steadily increasing his share of Latino voters even more. That was until Madison Square Garden.
It was then that everything changed.
It changed broadly and across voter groups. America was reminded why they fired Trump in the first place.
Kamala Harris is going to win the race tonight.
She’s going to win for three reasons that may have been missed or under appreciated by pollsters.
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