POLLING MEMO: Why Support for ICE is Melting

ICE's negatives are a political liability - Here's how to make it worse for them heading into the midterms

TO: The Great Transformation Subscribers

FROM: Mike Madrid

DATE: January 13, 2026

RE: ICE Approval Collapse & The Federal Overreach Frame

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ICE’s approval rating has collapsed from +16 to -14 in less than a year, with 40% of Americans now holding strongly unfavorable views of the agency. Moreover, in a YouGov poll conducted in the wake of the murder of Renee Good in Minneapolis 52% of respondents either somewhat or strongly disapproved of how ICE is handling its job, compared to 39% who somewhat or strongly approved.

This isn’t a shift in immigration attitudes — it’s voters reframing ICE operations from “law enforcement” to “government overreach.” Support for abolishing ICE has hit a historic high of 42%, and the agency is now less popular than the protesters demonstrating against it. While the erosion began with the militarization of Los Angeles last summer, the tipping point came with the murder of Renee Good in Minneapolis this week. The administration’s aggressive tactics have backfired catastrophically, creating a legitimacy crisis that transcends traditional immigration politics.

KEY FINDING: The gap between what voters say they support (immigration enforcement) and what they’ll tolerate when they see it (violence against communities) is the entire story of ICE’s collapse. Highlight the terror, violence and chaos being inflicted on Americans as the central frame to continue to see erosion in public support.

Trump and Miller have lost the narrative about ICE’s tactics of mass deportations and focusing on violent criminals in fact this level of erosion suggests the public is beginning to view the tactics of ICE agents as those engaging in violent criminal activity.

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THE DATA

ICE Approval Implosion

February 2025: +16 net approval (YouGov/The Economist)

November 2025: -14 net approval

January 2026: 39% approve / 52% disapprove (-13)

Critical shift in intensity: Just 19% held strongly unfavorable views in February 2025. Today, 40% do. This isn’t drift — it’s hardening opposition.

Trump’s Immigration Agenda Tracks Downward

- Early 2025: Net +15 support for deportations (multiple polls)

- Mid-July 2025: Net -15 support (30-point collapse)

- January 2026: Net -9 (recent deterioration after brief recovery)

Tactical Opposition is Overwhelming

The polling on specific ICE tactics reveals where the damage occurred:

- 64% oppose arrests at schools (AP-NORC, January 2025)

- 57% oppose arrests at churches (AP-NORC, January 2025)

- 66% oppose detaining American citizens during raids (Data for Progress)

- 70% oppose zip-tying children during raids — including 53% of Republicans (Data for Progress)

- 51% say ICE tactics are too forceful vs. just 10% who want more force (YouGov, January 2026)

- 56% of independents say excessive force (YouGov, January 2026)

That’s a 5-to-1 ratio saying ICE uses too much force.

NOTE: The YouGov poll had Latinos opposition to ICE at over 60% and support at 30% (near baseline Hispanic GOP support). Yes, still shockingly high but reflects a complete return to 2016 Hispanic support levels completely wiping out all gains Trump and the GOP made over the past decade.

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WHAT HAPPENED

The Erosion Begins: Summer 2025 Militarization

The collapse began when Stephen Miller ordered 3,000 arrests per day in late April and ICE responded by militarizing American cities. The turning point started with the deployment of National Guard troops to Los Angeles in the summer of 2025 — images of military-style operations in a major American city began the reframing process in voters’ minds.

From there, ICE operations escalated:

- Midnight raids dragging citizens from homes (Chicago)

- Children zip-tied during operations

- Church raids (Los Angeles)

- School-based arrests (Minneapolis)

By late June, YouGov/Yahoo had ICE at 39% favorable / 52% unfavorable. The damage was setting in, and it was severe.

The Tipping Point: Minneapolis Murder of Renee Good

But the real tipping point in public opinion came this week with the murder of Renee Good by ICE agents in Minneapolis. This wasn’t abstract anymore. This wasn’t policy debate. An American woman was killed by federal agents during an immigration operation.

The January 2026 polling — conducted before Good’s killing — shows ICE at 39% approve / 52% disapprove, virtually unchanged from late June. The numbers had already bottomed out from the summer militarization. Good’s murder will likely drive them even lower when the next round of polling comes out.

The sequence matters: The summer militarization of Los Angeles began the erosion. The months of escalating tactics cemented negative views. Good’s killing in Minneapolis became the crystallizing moment that will likely push opposition even deeper.

The Reframe: From Enforcement to Overreach

This is the strategic shift that matters: Voters stopped evaluating ICE actions as immigration policy and started evaluating them as federal power deployed violently against communities.

When National Guard troops occupied Los Angeles, Americans didn’t see border security, they saw martial law. When ICE raided churches, they saw federal agents violating sanctuary. When children were zip-tied, voters didn’t think about visa enforcement, they thought about traumatized kids. When citizens were detained, people worried about unchecked government power. And when Renee Good was killed, they saw a federal agency murdering Americans.

The administration bet voters would accept any means in service of popular ends. They were wrong on both counts. The means became the policy. The violence overwhelmed the stated goal. ICE transformed from “immigration enforcement agency” to “neighborhood terror operation.”

This reframing is fatal because it removes the debate from the immigration lane entirely. You can win elections on border security. You cannot win elections defending what looks like tyranny and ends with dead Americans.

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STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

1. The Abstract vs. Actual Problem

Americans still tell pollsters they support “strict immigration enforcement” or “deporting people who entered illegally.” Those abstractions sound reasonable.

But show them what enforcement actually means: National Guard troops occupying Los Angeles, agents in tactical gear raiding Sunday services, children screaming as parents are dragged away, neighbors who’ve lived here fifteen years vanished overnight, Renee Good killed in Minneapolis — and they reject it completely.

The gap between theoretical support and tolerance for actual implementation is the entire story.

NOTE: Focus messaging on violent overreach and the chaos - do not bring the message back to the message frame on immigration reform because that is NOT how this is viewed by the public. Refuse to step on a winning message.

2. Who’s Behind The Masks?

Congressional Democrats just opened a formal investigation into whether pardoned January 6 insurrectionists are now working as ICE agents.

Rep. Jamie Raskin sent letters to AG Pam Bondi and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem demanding “records, documents, memos, and internal communications regarding the solicitation and hiring of anyone charged or investigated for actions in connection to the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.”

The context: Trump pardoned ~1,600 January 6 defendants on day one. DHS immediately launched a massive ICE hiring spree with $50,000 bonuses, eliminated degree requirements, and relaxed vetting.

The problem: ICE agents “conceal their identities, wearing masks and removing names from their uniforms.” Unlike every other federal law enforcement agency, ICE operates with hidden identities.

“Who is hiding behind these masks?” Raskin asks. “How many of them were among the violent rioters who attacked the Capitol on January 6th and were convicted of their offenses?”

This isn’t hypothetical. Jared Wise — a former FBI supervisor who stormed the Capitol screaming “You guys are disgusting. I’m former—I’m former law enforcement. You’re disgusting. You are the Nazi. You are the Gestapo” at police officers — now serves as senior adviser in the Deputy Attorney General’s office.

Raskin notes DHS “seems to be courting pardoned January 6th insurrectionists” through recruitment using “white nationalist ‘dog whistles’” aimed at “members of extremist militias, including the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Three Percenters.”

For public perception: Americans watched the militarization of Los Angeles, months of brutal raids, and now the killing of Renee Good — all while Congress investigates whether masked agents include convicted insurrectionists who attacked the Capitol. This compounds the legitimacy crisis exponentially.

NOTE: As state legislatures begin to pass legislation outlawing the use of masks for law enforcement, expect to see polling outfits begin to ask the question in surveys. The banning of masks for law enforcement is likely to be a popular winning issue for Democrats.

3. “Abolish ICE” Hits Historic High

Civiqs data shows 42% of Americans now support abolishing ICE — the highest ever recorded. Just 50% oppose.

Compare to:

- Summer 2018 (peak progressive activism): 29% support

- Election Day 2024: 21% support

- Mid-2020 (George Floyd protests): 37% support

Even during the racial justice movement’s peak, the gap was 17 points. We’re now at 8 points. Half that distance.

Movement across demographics:

- Independents: +15 points toward abolition in one year

- Republicans: +6 points toward abolition in one year

This isn’t left mobilization. This is center collapse.

Most damaging finding: Americans now view anti-ICE protesters (44% approve / 42% disapprove) more favorably than ICE itself (39% approve / 52% disapprove).

When a federal law enforcement agency is less popular than the people marching against it, that’s not a messaging problem. That’s an institutional legitimacy crisis.

NOTE: The danger here is in overplaying a winning hand. ‘Abolishing ICE’ can quicky become the next “Defund the police’ or ‘Open Borders’ frame if there’s no policy alternative. Let ICE agents continue to damage themselves without giving them the cover to continue. Focus on the unpopular tactics more than just anti-ICE messaging.

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CROSS-PARTISAN DYNAMICS

The ICE collapse reveals something critical about current political realignment: traditional left-right immigration positions are being superseded by broader skepticism of concentrated federal power.

Conservative voters who theoretically support border security are watching federal operations that look exactly like the government tyranny they’ve always feared. Troops in Los Angeles. Masked agents with no identification. Americans killed.

Suburban moderates who voted for Trump partly on immigration are discovering they don’t want militarized enforcement in their communities.

Progressives who already opposed aggressive enforcement have been joined by a much wider coalition appalled by the force levels deployed.

The administration didn’t unite Americans around immigration enforcement. It united them around rejecting what looks like government violence.

When 70% oppose brutalizing children (including 53% of Republicans), you’ve lost the mandate. When 66% oppose detaining citizens, you’ve crossed a constitutional line. When people say your tactics are too aggressive by 5-to-1, you’re not doing law enforcement. And when you kill Americans like Renee Good, you’ve lost any remaining moral authority.

And when 42% want to eliminate your agency entirely — a historic high — you’ve lost the basic legitimacy required to operate in a democracy.

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WHAT COMES NEXT

The fundamental question has shifted from immigration policy to: How much violence will Americans accept from their government?

The answer, increasingly, is: not this much.

The traditional immigration debate — borders vs. compassion, enforcement vs. amnesty — has been swallowed by a more primal question about federal power and violence. This is politically catastrophic for the administration because:

1. It removes their policy advantage. You can win on “secure the border.” You cannot win on “federal agents killing Americans.”

2. It activates anti-government instincts across the spectrum. This isn’t just progressives. This is pulling in conservatives suspicious of federal power and moderates horrified by what they’re seeing.

3. The visual evidence is damning and permanent. The militarization of Los Angeles. Every raid. Every viral video. Every detained citizen. Renee Good’s death. Each reinforces the “overreach” frame. The administration can’t message their way out of this.

4. The January 6 connection amplifies everything. The possibility that masked ICE agents include pardoned insurrectionists transforms this from “excessive enforcement” to “who exactly has the government armed?”

The administration shows no signs of adjusting course. They’ll double down. They’ll get more aggressive. They’ll widen the gap between stated immigration goals and actual violent enforcement until it’s unbridgeable.

And ICE will continue dying in public opinion.

Because Americans have figured out what they’re watching. Not border security. Not law enforcement. Militarized occupation. Violence. Overreach. Federal power crushing communities and killing Americans. Possibly staffed by the same people who attacked the Capitol.

And they’ve decided they won’t stand for it.

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BOTTOM LINE

The ICE approval collapse isn’t about immigration. It’s about Americans rejecting what they perceive as authoritarian federal violence deployed against their communities. The erosion began with the summer militarization of Los Angeles and accelerated through months of brutal tactics. The murder of Renee Good in Minneapolis this week represents the tipping point — the moment when “excessive tactics” became “the government is killing us.”

The administration fundamentally misread what voters would tolerate, and the political damage is both severe and likely permanent.

The reframing from “immigration enforcement” to “government overreach” is complete in voters’ minds. Once that frame takes hold, it doesn’t reverse. Expect continued deterioration in support, especially as the congressional investigation into January 6 pardoned employees generates more headlines and as the full details of Good’s killing emerge. Also expect regular social media videos going viral showing community’s under siege.

Key words and phrases to use in social media messaging about ICE: Violent, Chaos, Under-trained, unprepared, Terrorizing neighborhoods, Dangerous, violating the rights of US citizens.

Strategic recommendation for Democrats: Lean into the federal overreach frame. This isn’t just a progressive issue anymore — it’s activating anti-government instincts across the political spectrum. The militarization of American cities, the killing of Americans, and the potential employment of January 6 insurrectionists all reinforce the same narrative: unchecked federal power run amok. The more the administration doubles down on aggressive tactics, the worse their position becomes.

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Data sources: YouGov/The Economist, YouGov/Yahoo, AP-NORC, Data for Progress, Civiqs, Morning Consult. Congressional investigation: CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-democrats-trump-administration-jan-6-rioters-ice/), Axios (https://www.axios.com/2026/01/13/ice-trump-january-6-justice-department-dhs-jamie-raskin), Law & Crime (https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/who-is-hiding-behind-these-masks-investigators-want-to-know-whether-ice-is-employing-former-jan-6-defendants-demand-docs-about-violent-rioters-hired-by-dhs/

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