Mad Dash To The Midterms
The fundamentals of the midterms are as bad for the Republicans as I have seen in thirty years
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And that is actually what I’m going to be discussing today.
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Things are bad for Republicans these days.
Really bad.
In fact, I haven’t seen things this bad since probably 1994 before the seismic revolt that upended Washington DC and the GOP took control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.
Here are the data points setting the mood of the electorate as we close in on the dog days of summer:
Trump is reaching new lows in polling. He clocked in at 33% in an Economist/YouGuv poll and that puts him at historic lows for him and every President in modern history.
Corruption is creeping up as an issue as the cumulative effect of the criming has taken hold in the mind of average Americans. I explain why on Katy Tur’s show on MS Now below:
Consumer confidence remains at a 50 year low.
The Iran war can officially be characterized as a ‘quagmire’ with no good decisions for the administration in either direction. Who coulda guessed a war in the middle east would turn out this way?
Polling is showing states like Alaska, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and even Iowa and Kansas as far more competitive or safe for Democrats than most would’ve dared to say out loud just a couple months ago.
Democratic enthusiasm is volcanic. Independent voters are breaking historically towards Democrats and Republican voters are depressed and increasingly likely to sit this one out.
So yes. Bad…really bad.
Is there time for Republicans to fix it and correct course? yes.
But that means there’s also time for things to deteriorate further and get even worse for Republicans. Buckle up.
Texas CD-15 remains an obsession for me.
You’ve all seen Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido here on the show. You’ve seen my interviews with him on The Latino Vote Podcast. You know this seat was a Trump +18 and is now polling Democrat Pulido +6 over Republican Monica De La Cruz.
I’m obsessed because these swings are not normal for any voting group - especially Latinos. But you also know my theory about Latino Dealignment is proving more and more accurate every day.
So in a week or so I’m catching a very early flight and heading to Texas to see what’s going on for myself. I’m gonna hire a film crew and interview some folks on the ground there to give you a keen sense of what’s goin on - stuff you’ll only get following this Substack (remember to subscribe if you can….that’s what makes these things possible).
So stay tuned….I mean Mike Madrid in a dance hall in Beeville Texas. Might even pick up a hat and belt buckle. Interviews with Bobby Pulido (and maybe some other big name Texas candidates you may have heard of ;).
What else can you ask for?
Well if you need more convincing I’ll be heading from Texas to Colorado to interview Secretary Ken Salazar, former Ambassador to Mexico and Interior Secretary about his new book Borderlands and I’m also trying to schedule a one-on-one interview with congressional candidate Manny Rutinel in yet another of the most contested races in the country.
I want to introduce my readers to an initiative I have been working on for the past year or so - The Latino Working Class Project
It’s not partisan. You all know I have no time or concern for anything to do with political parties. But it is an honest clear eyed look at the policies that are failing my community on BOTH sides of the aisle.
I wanted to send you a copy of the newsletter I sent out to thousands of Latino activists, journalists, business and labor leaders, non-profit heads and politicians about the latest poll I conducted about how Latino voters in California are feeling about the economy and it is eye opening.
Here’s what I sent…..
To California’s Latino Opinion Leaders:
Over the past several weeks, we’ve been asking what it means to get ahead in California—and what the economic experiences of working-class Latinos can tell us about an increasingly fluid electorate.
Now, we have new data that begins to answer those questions.
This month, the Latino Working Class Project surveyed 600 Latino likely voters across California, continuing a series of statewide surveys conducted since November 2024. The results give us a window not only into what Latino voters are thinking today, but how their views are changing over time.
The findings reveal a more complicated picture of what is driving California’s Latino electorate—one that connects economic pressure, confidence in government and the enduring expectation that hard work should still make it possible to get ahead.
A few findings stand out:
Affordability + Accountability
Cost of living remains the top concern, with 94% saying it is extremely or very important. But one of the more striking findings is what sits alongside it: 91% say corruption and fraud in government is extremely or very important—statistically even with cost of living.
And 72% of voters who rate cost of living extremely important also rate corruption extremely important. These are largely the same voters, suggesting that concerns about affordability and government accountability may be more closely connected than they first appear.
Dissatisfaction Is Deepening
Nearly two-thirds—64%—say California is on the wrong track. But the trend over time may be even more telling.
The share who say California is headed in the right direction has fallen from 32% to 25% since November 2024. Over the same period, approval of how state government is addressing the economy has dropped from 43% to 29%.
Political Advantage ≠ Political Trust
Democrats have improved their position relative to Republicans, but that advantage does not necessarily translate into broad confidence.
Asked which party better understands people like them, 18% of Latino voters say neither party.
The distinction matters: movement away from one political party should not automatically be interpreted as growing loyalty to another.
Frustration Hasn’t Erased Aspiration
Despite the economic and political dissatisfaction reflected throughout the survey, voters still respond strongly to the promise of economic opportunity.
When voters heard a message about working hard, struggling to get by and wanting the opportunity to build a better life, 64% said it would make them more likely to support a candidate.
Taken together, the findings begin to answer the question we posed last week: What does it mean to get ahead in California today?
For Latino voters, economic opportunity remains deeply important—but there is growing doubt about whether government and political leaders are delivering it. Economic pressure is colliding with concerns about accountability, declining confidence in the direction of the state and increasingly unsettled partisan loyalties.
Yet perhaps the most important finding is what hasn’t changed: the aspiration to work hard, build economic security and create a better life remains powerful.
That tension—between continued belief in economic mobility and growing frustration with whether California is creating the conditions for it—may help explain why the state’s Latino electorate remains so fluid.
This week, POLITICO’s California Playbook examined what the results could mean for California’s political leadership, describing the poll as a warning sign for the state’s next governor.
Mike Madrid
On a final note…I’ll be getting an apartment in Los Angeles in a few weeks and commuting between Northern and Southern California. I have accepted an adjunct teaching position at USC (University of Southern California) where I will be teaching a seminar on the Midterm elections.
As many of you know I am also a senior fellow at the University of California Irvine and I have accepted the opportunity to teach an undergraduate course there as well…the name of the course? The Latino Century - I will be teaching a class on the findings of my book and what the future of American democracy and Latino politics hold for each other.
Congratulations on everything.
By the way, I've been to Madrid, NM. A very cool and sweet place.
I look forward to your boots on the ground reporting from Texas and your interview with Ken Salazar in Colorado!
Thank you 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸