Latino Voters Deliver Harsh Verdict on Trump Presidency

New data shows unprecedented disapproval among Latino voters 100 days into Trump administration.

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Before we get too deep into the Latino specifics of the latest round of polling, let me just say that Trump's polling crash is deep and broad-based. Americans of all persuasions are unhappy with the direction of the country and blame him for it.

Yes, there is a wide range of issues, but let me be very clear about this - this is overwhelmingly about the economy.

I know it's still shocking to many, especially those who follow political news closely, but the economy is by far the single most important issue on voters' minds now, as it was in the 2024 election. For all the punditry and prognostication about how voters could have possibly supported Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, the hard truth is that it was about the economy. It's still about the economy, and it's very likely that it will be about the economy in the midterms.

For Latinos, as the fastest-growing group of blue-collar, non-college-educated voters, it's the economy, only more so. As we'll see in the data shortly, Latinos are extremely price-sensitive because they earn less, are more likely to be hourly employees, and work in industries that are susceptible to price shocks (service sector jobs).

It's common sense to me that Latinos were not happy with Biden's economy (they had good reason not to be) and are equally or more disappointed by Trump's chaotic self-implosion on the economy (also for good reason). If the economy is bad, Latino voters will punish you regardless of party, and if it's good, they'll reward you regardless of party.

Most of this is not more complicated than that.

But we're going to take a look anyway because Latino voters have changed their opinions markedly since Trump took office just 100 days ago.

Latino opinion has soured on Trump considerably to the point where virtually all of the support he registered among Latinos recently has collapsed. Disappeared.

Depending on which poll you read and the methodologies used, we could be seeing a complete collapse of ALL the Latino support Trump has gained since 2016.

Curiously, it is the most credible news-based polls that are showing the steepest declines in support for Trump, often by historically wide margins. Perhaps even more curiously, it is the partisan Democratic organizations and non-profit organizations whose polling is showing the smallest declines.

This is critically important, and it bears examining why that is the case. First, 2024 will be remembered as the year that every Latino progressive advocacy organization got it wrong about Latino voters.

And I mean really, really wrong.

In fact, these organizations were so wrong that it threatened their very existence and legitimacy. The entire Democratic establishment, having followed their lead to a third consecutive election cycle of losing Latino voters, recognized that these Latino organizations were misleading the party into losing elections. And if that wasn't a stark enough red flag, they were losing Latinos against Donald Trump.

In a classic example of destructive groupthink, these organizations that raise and rely on millions of dollars focused primarily on immigration-related issues and immigration reform, continually produced polling and research data through the 2024 election that was just flat wrong.

Curiously, their polling regularly churned out results suggesting immigration reform was a much greater priority for Latinos than any other credible data source indicated. Worse, no one said a thing about it. Imagine the very groups getting millions of dollars were the only ones driving a narrative that immigration reform was a top concern. Shocking, I know.

Those organizations have changed their tune. Finally, I'll explain the adjustments being made below.

But first, I want to walk through some of the findings of non-partisan research centers and news organizations because they offer a unique, if limited, look at what's going on with Latino voters.

Pew Research

Pew Research put out some results last week that had Trump at a 27% approval rating. Brutal. As many of you know, I consider Pew Research the 'gold standard' of Hispanic polling and research. This particular poll was not Hispanic-specific... however, it was a poll of all US voters, and the 27% figure is pulled from a subsample of the overall poll.

Now, this is not good practice when assessing Latino public opinion or any public opinion for that matter. The sample size here is in the range of 150 Latino voters, nowhere near sufficient for a reliable scientific finding. Having said that, I'm going to point out that these subsamples from polls have proven to be more accurate—far more accurate—than the partisan polls of Latino organizations issued by Democratic-leaning organizations over the past decade. So while I won't vouch for the accuracy of the exact number here, I will certainly take this data point as indicating a steep decline in Latino support for Trump. In fact, it's one of the steepest declines of Latino support in such a short time frame I've seen in thirty years.

CNN

CNN released a poll of voters with a "non-white" subsample of the same 150-ish number, and they found Trump's approval at 28%. Now, using 'non-white' voters is just lazy, CNN. Spend a few more bucks and get the data to break out Black and Brown voters separately. C'mon, it's 2025.

So, not a great data point, but again, look for movement in polling, not precise numbers. The movement is down, and it's a steep negative slope.

To put the Pew and CNN polls in perspective, these findings would constitute a 15-20 point drop since Trump's historic support levels in 2024. Frankly, that's more than a drop—it's a collapse in support that puts GOP support levels in its historically low range in states like California or Arizona in the 90s and early 2000s.

But are they real?

Reuters

A week ago, Reuters released a poll showing steep declines in Trump's handling of the economy and Latino support in the mid-30s range (34%). This would mean a ten-point drop in 100 days. Another big drop.

Now, let's look at the left-leaning Latino advocacy organizations that have missed the mark over the past decade. By the way, if you think this is just my criticism, let me suggest you peruse this Atlantic article to disabuse you of that notion. There is a wide consensus within the Democratic party that many Latino organizations have been driving a progressive narrative far to the left of where working-class Latinos are.

Latino Community Foundation and Voto Latino (GQ) issued a poll of 1,000 Latino respondents that shows Trump's approval at 39%.

“This poll makes one thing clear: Latino voters from 2024 are paying close attention and are not afraid to hold leaders accountable,” said Julián Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation. “At LCF, we are listening closely to the voices of our communities, and what we’re hearing is deep concern about the cost of living and the lack of real solutions. Economic relief was promised, and our community is still waiting. The Latino vote is not a blank check.”

The number of Latinos saying border security and immigration reform are priority issues is way down the list at 6th and 7th, far below the economy and affordability, which tower over all other issues.

This is significant, folks. Don't overlook this. By a wide stretch, Latinos are moving and reacting negatively to economic concerns. They're still not prioritizing immigration reform or border security as a top 5 issue—and that's data from groups that emphasize Latinos prioritizing the immigration issue. Candidly, the data looks like Latino intensities among the highest propensity voters are leaning more toward border security than immigration reform.

That's why you should take it with a grain of salt, all of the pundits suggesting that the mass deportations are moving Latino voters. Yes, it may be marginally, but by far and away, Latinos are reacting to the economy. Democrats would do well to stay focused there if they want to win these voters back.

Now it gets really interesting.

UnidosUS (BSP research) is the oldest and largest Latino civil rights organization in the United States. This is a wonderful organization with a long, rich history of doing amazing work for Latinos. They were gracious enough to honor me with their annual Capitol Award in 2023 alongside New Mexico Senator Ben Lujan.

So, it has been with heartbreaking alarm that I saw UnidosUS pushing out questionable polling data over the past few years. By wide measures, their polling has been missing the mark, far more than standard deviations one can expect from polling. So I dug deeper into their surveys and found that their polling was using a very unsound methodological practice being pushed by a few academics with no history of political polling.

Put directly, they were more than doubling the sample size of Spanish-speaking interviews in their polling. It may sound harmless, but it's not. It provides a deeply flawed and skewed look at Latinos that falsely drives a narrative of Latinos being more first-generation, recently migrated Spanish speakers, when the Latino community is rapidly becoming less of all of these. In short, this methodological flaw explains why Democrats have been getting Latino voters so wrong for the past decade.

But their new poll shows something entirely different, and it should be acknowledged. This latest poll has a sample size of 21% Spanish-speaking interviews (very well within an acceptable range), and they partnered with a Republican pollster.

This is a dramatic step in the right direction and a sign that Latino advocacy groups (at least the largest one) have gotten the message loud and clear: You can't win without good, credible, honest data, and the media, donors, and Democratic groups aren't going to tolerate cooked books anymore.

So, where did the UnidosUS poll have Latino support for Trump?

39%

This means that the largest Latino advocacy group that has always shown Trump with the lowest approval ratings among any pollster in the country over the past decade now has Trump's approval ratings higher than everyone else.

Interesting, to say the least.

As someone who has been attacked by partisans and dismissed by journalists, this is a complete vindication of my argument and reinvigorates my belief that truth—even in politics—will ultimately prevail.

Which brings me back to Trump. Latino voters are souring on Trump quickly. The rightward shift I outlined in my book "The Latino Century" was predicated on the idea that Latinos are the fastest-growing group of economic voters and had the weakest partisan ties of emergent voting groups. I argued that Latinos, properly understood, would punish those parties and politicians who failed them on the economy and reward those who helped them succeed.

Trump's collapsing numbers prove that point as much as Biden's numbers did before him.

Trump's loss of Latino support has been decisive, measurable, and swift, but Democrats would do well to heed the lessons of the last decade. Without building a long-term, permanent working-class agenda that delivers results, you're risking losing it all again.

Trump has completely shot himself in the foot and allowed Democrats to get back in the game with Latino voters through no action of their own.

They would be wise not to return the favor.