Labor day, Unions and the future of work

The shift from the industrial age to the digital age has transformed work and it has upended society, economics and politics along with it

Photo by Tim Mossholder on Unsplash

As dynamic as the population changes transforming the country's political system are, we have to keep in mind that we are fundamentally experiencing profound social changes that are manifesting themselves in our politics. Our politics are not driving the changes in our society, they are reflecting them.

This is one of the reasons I made a considerable adjustment in my political consulting career about half way through my professional trajectory. As my career progressed from its start in the early 1990’s running campaigns, an entirely new field of political data was opening up and every election cycle (2 years) there were remarkable innovations redefining the craft of campaigning.

I mention this because as data became richer, we began to persuade less and less and mobilize more and more. The art of the political consultant I wanted to be a part of moved from persuasion to mobilization as data became more ubiquitous. And while it was tempting to believe that dynamic was a function of us getting better and better at micro-targeting and understanding our audiences better - the truth is we were simply getting better at understanding the social changes already occurring despite our efforts to persuade people that our party or politicians were the best.

That's a really long way of saying that as we look at and consider changing voter groups and how they come to make their decisions, the underlying demographics are far more important than most in my profession ever imagined. This also explains why voters are much more likely to be more calcified and static and locked in on their positions. Data professionals are much better at speaking to where people are than in persuading them of where politicians want them to be.

What does this have to do with Labor Day?

Well, the unprecedented demographic transformation we are experiencing that I refer to in my book “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy” as the “Latinization of America” isn't just changing our political institutions. In fact, it's not even the first major American institution that’s being transformed.

There have been two major American social institutions that have been impacted, or are being impacted, as much as or more significantly than our political system: The educational system and the workforce.

The educational system was the first to be impacted and the reason why should be obvious and while I will certainly go into greater detail another day, let me first point out that the combination of the influx of immigrant youths and, by astoundingly greater numbers, US born Latino children, forever changed the complexion, language and culture of our classrooms. This massive demographic wave began nearly a quarter of a century ago. The effects of that wave are just being seen now as those same children are now doing two things today at an unprecedented and transformative rate: registering to vote and getting jobs.

We talk a lot about what that means for the political system, so today - on this Labor Day - where we take a national moment to reflect on the workers of America and the middle class, I'm going to visit a bit on the changing workforce as what happens there will drive our system of government much more than the other way around.

Last year I had the great honor to work with the HR Policy Association on a groundbreaking new study examining how the rapid Latino demographic transformation would impact the labor force. The findings were fascinating. The Association consists of nearly 400 of the largest corporations doing business in the United States and globally. Collectively, these companies employ more than 11 million employees in the United States, over nine percent of the entire private sector workforce, and 20 million employees worldwide. So when we are talking about workforce impacts these companies offer a better glimpse as to what's going on than virtually anywhere else.

My co-author of the study, Michelle Carlin, and I conducted over 150 interviews with Latino employees at various levels of employment. Moreover, our research gathered key demographic factors that were driving change. Consider some of the following points pulled directly from the report:

• Latino men participate in the labor force at the highest rate of any ethnic or racial group – 75.4% – while Latinas have the second lowest female participation rate at 55.8%, slightly ahead of white women (55.4%). However, as Latinas are outpacing Latinos in educational attainment, their percentage of the workforce is rising faster than their male coworkers

• Latinos represent one-fifth of workers but are concentrated in a few occupations and industries. Latinos are overrepresented in categories such as painters, construction workers, maids, and housekeepers; and are more likely than other groups to work in the construction and hospitality industries. Consequently, Latinos are underrepresented in higher-paying STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) and high-tech occupations, representing just 8% of all STEM workers. Even in California, where Latinos represent almost 40% of the population, only 5.6% of Latinos have a STEM degree

• Latinos are also the least likely group to hold higher-paying management positions. In 2020, only 26% of Latinos held management positions, compared to 35% of Blacks, 43% of Whites and 58% of Asians

• Latinos are more likely than other racial or ethnic groups to have relied on the freelance work of the gig economy to earn a living. Thirty percent of Latinos have earned money via a gig platform, compared with 20% of Blacks, 19% of Asians and 12% of Whites. Even among more ethnically and racially diverse younger adults, Latinos are more likely to earn money via gig work than either Blacks or Whites. 

• Latinos are projected to account for 78% of all net new workers between 2020 and 2030. An estimated 20% of all workers will be Latino by 2030. 

You can find a complete copy of the Latino Worker Project report here

Most of you have heard me say time and time again that Latinos are the fastest growing segment of the blue collar workforce. Moreover, you’ve also heard me say that Latinos are behind nearly every other racial and ethnic group in attaining a college degree. These statistics bear out precisely why I have been so passionately making the case for politicians on both sides to get back to becoming a working class party. The party that is best able to do that will be the dominant party for the next generation, or as I might humbly suggest - the remainder of this Latino Century.

Labor Day was established in the late 1800’s to recognize both the painful struggles of working men, women and children who suffered through the social spasms of the emergent industrial age as well as the institutions and legislation that eased much of that suffering. As much as many of those struggles are still relevant today, we’d be well served by understanding that this century is already being defined far more by the digital age and that the industrial age is slipping into the rearview mirror at a time when automation, technology and the very nature of work is fundamentally changing.

Here's two data points that make the case of how much the labor market has changed:

• 14% of the United States workforce is fully remote

• 11% of the United States workforce is unionized

MSNBC ran a quick segment on this change a couple of days ago.

Let me put this another way: Latinos will comprise nearly 80% of ALL new workers employed in the US between 2020-2030 while being neither remote workers and having the lowest rates of unionization in the workforce. Squeezed between the old industrial model of attaining middle class status and the new digital high-tech economy that allows for upward economic mobility, Latinos, or “the essential workforce” as we called them during the pandemic, are finding themselves stuck at the bottom of the economic ladder. This situation is not tenable and to think this won’t have long term social, economic and political consequences is to mistake the obvious. It will define the next chapter of race and class politics in this country.

Labor union members, Latinos among them, are voting more and more for Republican candidates. Economic populism and protectionism are rising in importance among these men and women -  as much as workplace protections and benefits - as anxiety about the future is pressing employees to worry about whether their industry will exist, let alone have a job as things change. Non-college educated workers are voting like non-college educated voters (Republican) and those least likely to join unions because of their college degrees (Democrats) are redefining the relationship between the economic classes and the political parties. On top of that the correlation to those without a college degree (Black and Brown) and those with them (Asian and White) is adding a complexity to the racial and class narrative we were never particularly good at addressing as a country anyway.

One of the lessons of The Great Transformation is that we best honor the sacrifices and successes of the past by being adaptable to change in the future. The solutions that worked last century don't necessarily work in this century.

Have a restful Labor Day - its a sprint from now until election day.