Do Latinos Really Support Mass Deportation?
One of 2024’s biggest shockers was Latino support for Trump despite his call for Mass Deportations. But is that the full story?
In the Spring of 2024 both Governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas began a unique, if inhumane, process of sending undocumented residents in their state to Blue state locations like Martha’s Vineyard and Sacramento. The stunt shocked the consciousness of many Americans reeling at the depravity of treating human beings like cattle all in an effort to play a political stunt and score some points in the national debate about the border situation that had been growing out of control.
But a curious set of data emerged from both situations. Not only did the residents of those states support their Governor’s actions, Latino voters polled surprisingly high support levels for the action as well.
In April, the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, a highly credible Latino public opinion research entity, issued eye-popping results from a survey on the Governor’s policy of sending undocumented residents out of state. The THPF survey showed fully 47% of Latino respondents supported Abbott’s actions.
“With respect to border security, Gov. Abbott has his hand squarely on the pulse of what Texas voters want. From busing immigrants to other states, to supporting high levels of spending on border security, these numbers show that all Texans, including Hispanics, support Governor Abbott’s muscular policies on these issues,” said Jason Villalba, Chairman and CEO of the TXHPF.
In the same month Axios released its own poll of Latino voters showing similar levels of support. According to Axios-Ipsos:
“By the numbers: 42% of Latino adults surveyed said they support building a wall or fence along the entire U.S.–Mexico border. That's a 12-point jump from December 2021.
38% support sending all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. back to their country of origin — up from 28% in 2021.
In addition, 64% of Latinos said they support giving the president the authority to shut U.S. borders if there are too many immigrants trying to enter the country. It was the first time the survey asked this question.”
By late Spring the Biden campaign was hitting the panic button. Trump had opened up a yawning gap among voters who strongly supported and trusted him on the border over Biden. Most concerning for Democrats was there was little daylight between Latinos and all voters with Biden’s sagging numbers.
In a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding, Biden pivoted completely on the border. He accepted the conservative Republican Lankford bill as his border security position and used executive powers to essentially shut down all asylum claims, effectively closing the border. According to a CBS poll 69% of Latino voters supported the action compared to 70% of Americans overall. Virtually no distinction existed between Latinos and the overall electorate on the issue.
How we got here is an issue I’ve explored at great length. A combination of generational change, increasing numbers of illegal crossings, siloed media bubbles and a host of other issues all combined to create a growing opposition by Latinos to the growing number of undocumented immigrants crossing the border.
But there are two key considerations to take into account before we jump too far towards any conclusions about how Latino voters will likely react to mass deportations, if in fact they do materialize in the coming months.
The first is a deeper dive into the data. The second is recent history.
Many of the same polls showing growing Latino support for stronger border security measures also showed strong support for immigration reform measures and protections for many undocumented residents here, especially long term residents.
In fact, the same Axios poll in April that so rankled the narrative of the Biden campaign also showed the following:
“Immigration is the third-highest concern among Latinos in this election year, the poll found, behind inflation and crime.
Despite the rising number of Latinos who say anyone in the U.S. illegally should be deported, a strong majority (65%) still favor providing them with a path to U.S. citizenship rather than deporting them.
59% support allowing refugees fleeing crime and violence in Latin America to claim asylum in the U.S.”
Moreover, a prominent Democratic Latino polling firm, Equis Research found similar results. Latinos, while responsive to increased border security messaging, also demonstrate stronger support for immigrant protections, a pathway to citizenship, DACA protections and opposition to family separation policies.
The difficulty for Democrats is in believing that messaging all of these protections and immigration reform policy points help them with Latino voters. The 2024 election proved that it’s not that simple.
Elections are about the choices voters have before them not about the choices we want voters to make.
As Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic nominee her border security message separated from traditional Democratic messaging. Her border position was perhaps the most conservative position a Democrat had taken since 1996, or maybe ever.
This shook Democrats, their pollsters and consultants and sympathetic pundits and columnists. Harris position defied everything they had allowed themselves to believe about Latino voters and it led to a growing chorus of Left of center articles and cable news punditry that Harris could grow her support among Latinos more by adding the immigrant reform pieces to her messaging matrix.
This belief was wrong.
However well intentioned this was not only the misguided approach that got Democrats into trouble with Latino voters in the first place, it defied a basic understanding of how voters make decisions in a campaign environment.
Trump already had an enormous advantage over Harris on border security due in large part to the fact that Democrats never prioritized border security over immigration reform for well over a decade - if ever. This strategy never really worked for Democrats even when immigration flows were down, but once they began to increase considerably public opinion, including Latino public opinion, turned. Harris had to fix a problem she was at a decided disadvantage on and Trump wasn’t going to give her the breathing room to get off the mat.
In fact, Trump had such an advantage he walked away from the Lankford deal, directing Republicans to support no fix at the border over giving Biden-Harris a win. A cynical crass political move that worked for him precisely because he held such an enormous trust advantage over Democrats on an issue they refused to address with any policy specifics for a decade until it also became politically advantageous for them to do so.
Understanding this is critical for strategic positioning in the coming mass deportation fight. If the crackdown first centers on criminals and violent offenders and Democrats rush to their defense, it could prove disastrous for them. It would reinforce everything Republicans have been branding into the minds of voters about Democrats and who they prioritize, with assistance from Democrats digging their own grave.
The fight over mass deportations will likely come down to which side over reaches first and which side can seize the high ground by framing the narrative to their advantage. If Republicans create camps for tattooed gang members and violent offenders and Democrats rush to their defense, don’t be surprised if public opinion moves against Democrats even if the policy grows to workers, families and their children - which it inevitably will.
That leads us to the second point - history.
In the 2014 midterms, Democrats embarked on the first of many election cycles that would emphasize immigration reform as the primary issue for Latino voters.
It would prove to be disastrous.
In that year Latinos recorded the lowest voter turnout levels in history. Democrats got shellacked in the midterms.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton employed the same strategy and her Latino support levels dropped from Obama’s high water mark in 2012.
The 2014 and 2016 campaigns were the canary in the coal mine that something was deeply wrong with the Democrats strategy of prioritizing immigration reform, but rather than make adjustments a growing cadre of Latino consultants, advocacy organizations and monied interests pushed the party further down the misguided road.
But then came Donald Trump and his “Build the wall” rhetoric and ICE raids on workplaces, family separation policies and the emergence of photographs of kids in cages.
For all of the Trump bluster and not taking him seriously, voters -especially Latino voters- had a visceral reaction. With daily news stories about employment crackdowns and heightened neighborhood anxiety, Latinos went to the polls in the 2018 in record numbers and overwhelmingly voted against Donald Trump and the Republicans.
The abstract became existential.
Similar to Latino response against Propositions 187 in California in 1994 and SB 1070 and Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Arizona, Latino pushback against Republican over reach was fierce, swift and decisive. In fact, in the year when Trump’s immigration and deportation proposals were most real, Latino response was most opposed to it.
The 2018 midterms are the only year since 2014 where Democrats did not suffer from historically low turnout or experience Latino defections up until the present. That means in 5 of the last 6 elections Democrats have underperformed with Latino voters and the only time they did not was in the face of active deportation efforts occurring in Latino communities throughout the country. It was only when Republicans over reached on deportation measures that Latinos pushed back on the GOP.
What does this tell us about how Latinos will react to Trumps mass deportation policies?
It depends.
If Trump focuses on violent offenders and criminals exclusively, or even just at first, there’s a high likelihood he will get broad support among the public, including with Latino voters. This will be especially true if Democrats weigh in to defend them.
Conversely, if the Trump administration starts breaking up homes, cracking down on long time residents and ruining the lives of otherwise law abiding citizens - the likelihood of his own overreach is considerable.
There’s enough data to tell us Latinos want the border enforced and they want violent offenders and criminals removed. It also tells us they want a common sense solution found that isn’t punitive or disruptive to human lives or that will cause damage to the economy. Moreover, history suggests Latinos will viscerally push back if Republicans go too far.
Both sides have their cannon loaded and both sides are easily triggered. The side that keeps their powder dry the longest will likely have the advantage in this fight among public opinion. A Trump over reach could have serious implications in his ability to govern a people already shaky about his intentions.
In the coming battle over mass deportations it’s likely the counter punch will be more devastating than the initial salvo.
Sent from my iPhone
Seems like there is a contradiction between what most Latinos want, which seems very rational the way you explain it, and what Trump's base wants, which is a lot more sweeping and punitive. Trump himself seems to relish the punitive side of things, as do many of his top people (like Steven Miller and JD Vance).
I tend to assume that the more extreme MAGA proposals, such as ending birthright citizenship and deporting some naturalized citizens. would be less popular with Latinos, but are there any data on this?
Mike, I am interested in how you are thinking about what may have changed between the situation in 2018 , when Latinos turned out in large numbers because of Trump's deportation overreach, and the situation now, where broadly speaking, Latinos trust Trump (over Harris) to handle border security. There must be at least some in the community who remember what Trump did is his first term, yet there seems to be an implied trust, again broadly speaking, that Trump will handle things differently from his first term. Has the Latino electorate changed with the infusion of younger US born voters who don't remember 2017?