Defeating The Enemy We Know
Trump doesn’t shock us anymore. He may repulse us, disgust us, anger us, and even frighten us, but we’re no longer shocked by him - and that may make him easier to beat.
Trump has become more like old Madonna than the fat Elvis he draws comparisons to. Madonna loved to shock us and for a long while it captured the imagination of the world. At least until it didn’t. Then the act just became a little sad and pathetic and we ignored it.
Gone are the days of disbelief that anyone in public life would say the things he says. That Mexicans are drug dealers and rapists. That he likes veterans that weren’t captured. That he can ”grab ‘em by the pussy”.
He took our sense of propriety with his shamelessness and vulgarity. Of course he said there are Haitian immigrants eating dogs, cats and pets. Yes, he said Harris’ success was a result of her turning Black and ‘putting out’. Yes, he’s been locked at the hip with the likes of the racist and mentally unstable Laura Loomer for the past few weeks.
We know him and we know his followers are as shameless as he is. We shrug more than were shocked.
We know he won’t lose a single vote as he metaphorically points a gun down 5th Avenue and shoots our sense of national dignity and pride. We know him.
Our shock and disbelief in 2016 turned into fear and mobilization in 2020. We went from going high when he went low, to meeting him where he was.
But now we know him. And while Trump fatigue is real, we also know he hasn’t really lost many supporters. This race is really really close. I’ll write more next week about how many GOP voters are actually abandoning him (spoiler alert: It’s not many, so don’t get your hopes up).
The way to beat him in 2024 isn’t to go higher or lower, it's to go forward. We can’t let the circus sideshows distract us from building momentum FOR Kamala Harris. We must resist the urge to be distracted by the daily antics and carny barker calls, because Trump getting us off track is the most certain road to losing.
After looking at all the fundamentals, the stratified nature of the race, the voters stuck in the muddied path of negative partisanship…I’ve been convinced of one thing: Enthusiasm is Harris best hope.
His followers know who he is and they’re with him. His detractors know who they are and they’re against him. 90% of respondents prior to the debate said they knew enough about Trump to form an opinion about him.
We know him.
So to beat him we have to promote her. Be for her. Stand for something again. Don’t be dragged down into just being against him. Joy is contagious. It builds energy, excitement and enthusiasm. Trump has never faced that.
You all know I believe the fundamentals of this race benefit the Democrats. I still believe that.
But, I also believe that the only way past a dangerously close contest, a Pennsylvania that’s stuck at 50-50, and national polls showing Harris in a weaker spot than Biden and Clinton at this point in the race, is the wave of energy that’s been building for the past eight weeks.
Never have I believed that the size of a candidate's rallies made one iota of difference in a campaign. However, I can’t deny that something is building beyond the numbers when I see the sheer crowd size of Kamala Harris’ rallies in North Carolina. I mean…North Carolina. I was one of the very first to be very bullish on North Carolina but these rallies are next level.
While the numbers look good for Harris, but not great, the feeling on the ground isn’t just good for her, it’s great.
There wasn’t this level of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton, nor Joe Biden. But looking at the polling, the numbers don’t reflect that.
I’m a numbers guy and I’m gonna look at the evidence to draw conclusions way more often than not. I don’t buy into vibes, gut instincts or focus groups for real hard data to make serious consequential decisions. But if this comes down to a point or less - and it might - the winners gonna be the one with the most momentum. The most energy. The most enthusiasm.
So, which is right and which is wrong? The data or the vibes? The polling or the energy on the street? We’re gonna find out in fifty days.
I hope the Harris campaign is able to capitalize on their enthusiasm and translate it into getting out the vote. We've heard a lot about new voter registrations, especially after the Taylor Swift endorsement. It remains to be seen if that translates into votes on Election Day.
It doesn't seem like Trump is putting much effort, if any, into expanding his appeal, but instead is digging in on the crazy stuff that appeals to the MAGAs. Is he going to hit a ceiling with voters? I think so. That appears to be where Kamala Harris has room to grow. Still, this election is WAY closer than it should be if we had a healthy political environment.
Thanks the CALM REALITY
I continue to struggle to grasp why people are still supporting Trump. But, HATE is a strong motivator. I see it with family members, neighbors and co-workers. In many cases, they acknowledge that he (and his MAGA team) are BATSHIT CRAZY... but, they will still let FEAR guide their votes.