Focus on funding and amplifying the good candidates- if they are quality and speak authentically to the constituents then that is the best tack. Don’t assume ethnicities vote in a bloc. They don’t. I don’t appreciate the idea of gerrymandering on either side to compromise people’s votes. No one deserves to have national interests rob locals of their votes. Focus on supporting local candidates and the infrastructure that can get them elected.
Trump’s vote share statewide in California increased by 4 percentage points in 2024. In the graph of counties above, Trump’s vote share increased by 3-6% (without seeing the decimal place, an average of 4.4%). So in California, it doesn’t seem like Latinos voted that differently than the rest of the state.
Am I interpreting the data accurately?
When this whole thing started, I assumed that California was already gerrymandered. Only 9 GOP representatives out of 52 seats seems like a favorably map for Democrats. When I looked at the results I saw a lot of tight races won by Democrats suggesting their isn’t many Democratic voters who can be moved to crack Republican districts. You’ve already highlighted the risk because Latinos are being swing voters and thereby increase the chances of mapmaker error. But isn’t it also just a difficult map to manipulate since Democrats already hold 83% of seats from an election in which the front runner only took 58% of the vote?
This has been on top of my mind since the very first utterances of redistricting in Texas but how does your conclusion, that it may backfire on both counts, apply to Texas Republicans if Latinos help Republicans compete in traditionally Democratic districts?
This is a fantastic piece which does a great job explaining what's coming. I thought the episode of The Latino Vote that you and Chuck released on Friday was super! Maybe you could come back to Atlanta and host a live listener session.
While I agree with the premise that both parties should drop their historical biases when competing for the Latino votes, I am not sure the Dems have many choices if Abbott in TX along with Ohio and other red state governors go with a scorched earth policy on redistricting. Abbott and others are not looking for long lasting coalition, but are simply looking to stay away from Trump’s ire. Trump is most certainly trying to prevent Dems from regaining the house so they can start investigating the Epstein files. In short, I think everyone will make the most shortsighted decision.
Focus on funding and amplifying the good candidates- if they are quality and speak authentically to the constituents then that is the best tack. Don’t assume ethnicities vote in a bloc. They don’t. I don’t appreciate the idea of gerrymandering on either side to compromise people’s votes. No one deserves to have national interests rob locals of their votes. Focus on supporting local candidates and the infrastructure that can get them elected.
Mike consistently produces content that is worth reading. This analysis hits the mark.
Thank you 🙏🏼
Thanks Mike.
Trump’s vote share statewide in California increased by 4 percentage points in 2024. In the graph of counties above, Trump’s vote share increased by 3-6% (without seeing the decimal place, an average of 4.4%). So in California, it doesn’t seem like Latinos voted that differently than the rest of the state.
Am I interpreting the data accurately?
When this whole thing started, I assumed that California was already gerrymandered. Only 9 GOP representatives out of 52 seats seems like a favorably map for Democrats. When I looked at the results I saw a lot of tight races won by Democrats suggesting their isn’t many Democratic voters who can be moved to crack Republican districts. You’ve already highlighted the risk because Latinos are being swing voters and thereby increase the chances of mapmaker error. But isn’t it also just a difficult map to manipulate since Democrats already hold 83% of seats from an election in which the front runner only took 58% of the vote?
This has been on top of my mind since the very first utterances of redistricting in Texas but how does your conclusion, that it may backfire on both counts, apply to Texas Republicans if Latinos help Republicans compete in traditionally Democratic districts?
This is a fantastic piece which does a great job explaining what's coming. I thought the episode of The Latino Vote that you and Chuck released on Friday was super! Maybe you could come back to Atlanta and host a live listener session.
While I agree with the premise that both parties should drop their historical biases when competing for the Latino votes, I am not sure the Dems have many choices if Abbott in TX along with Ohio and other red state governors go with a scorched earth policy on redistricting. Abbott and others are not looking for long lasting coalition, but are simply looking to stay away from Trump’s ire. Trump is most certainly trying to prevent Dems from regaining the house so they can start investigating the Epstein files. In short, I think everyone will make the most shortsighted decision.
As per usual it is a lose-lose scenario for the Latino community, caught in the crossfire in the between the clueless.