The Polls Weren't Wrong
Polls are scientific instruments but used for very specific purposes. I've got some advice on how to better understand them.
Many of us got to know each other during the 2020 election. Like all campaigns, it was intense, and scary with contradictory polling data constantly swirling around. My role as the data guy with The Lincoln Project was to find the most efficient roadmap to move Republican voters to Biden and ensure a victory for the good guys.
That required taking a deep dive into thousands of data points and analyzing hundreds of polls with the precision of a scalpel.
As someone with a career spent behind the scenes, I knew The Lincoln Project created a unique moment in time where I had the opportunity to explain to millions of people what campaign strategists actually do.
I discovered that most Americans were consuming polling data through the lens of media and pundits who have almost no understanding of how polls work, how they’re designed, and how campaigns use them.
I wanted to put an end to that.
Polls create more anxiety than reassurance for people because often the people explaining them don’t fully understand them. For many, my explanations during The Lincoln Project about how polls are used in campaigns - not just on cable news - were transformative. It was the first time a national campaign had been purposefully transparent about the science and data driving a strategy.
Now, I’ve found a book that can take your understanding to the next level. It’s called “The Polls Weren’t Wrong”, and I had the privilege of reading an early copy. The book is both in-depth and accessible, and I think it will be incredibly useful if you want to make sense of polling and all the chaos that comes with election season.
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Here are a few of my favorite excerpts:
I’ve included a link to purchase a copy. I get no commission or kickbacks. I have no professional relationship with the author, I just wanted to bring a helpful tool to your attention.
Check out Carl Allen’s book on Amazon here:
Always looking to calm some nerves in the final days of an election. If nothing else works I’m including a photo my younger data guys on The Lincoln Project team took of me in the final days of the 2020 campaign when I knew we had taken the SOB out and won the race.
Feel free to stick it on your fridge if it helps.
Whoa! Thanks for the kind words Mike.
So, if we took a picture of you now, would it look the same?