The 2012 Republican Autopsy was Right - But for the Wrong Reasons
The GOP assessment after the 2012 defeat was predicated on needing more minority voters in the GOP ranks. Then they elected Trump and grew more diverse anyway. What went right - and wrong?
In the wake of Mitt Romney’s defeat to President Obama in 2012, a rattled RNC knew it had to change course. America was transforming, and the Republican Party was standing still.
Democrats were riding high after their second consecutive national victory, and the belief that ‘demographics is destiny’ became a sacred truth at DNC headquarters and Georgetown cocktail parties.
America had entered a new era. The “Obama Coalition”, made up of college-educated white progressives and Black and Brown voters, had re-elected a Black man to the White House. Leaving many to believe that the country had truly overcome its dark history of racial strife and entered a new Age of Enlightenment.
Republicans, rightfully concerned about losing the popular vote yet again, conducted a now-famous “autopsy” of their loss. The conclusion? Democrats were correct - the country’s rapidly changing demographics, driven by an expanding Latino population, were marginalizing the GOP to the brink of extinction. Blacks, Latinos, and LGBTQ+ voters needed to be engaged. Republicans had to broaden the proverbial tent and lean into key issues, namely immigration reform. Without change, the GOP feared the country would turn as blue as California had during its extraordinary demographic transformation. Much of this urgency stemmed from projections that a tsunami of Latino voters would sweep Republicans into a sea of irrelevance.
Texas and Florida were the next likely states to fall due to the “Latinization” of America. If Republicans lost these states, there would be no viable roadmap to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. Time was of the essence. The Party needed to act fast to thwart a catastrophe. The only way out of this demographic dead-end was to engage Latinos in an honest debate on immigration reform. Perhaps then, maybe, the GOP could salvage its fortunes with non-white voters. TIME magazine even featured Marco Rubio on its cover, touting him as the party’s future. Rubio was immediately designated the party’s face of Republican immigration reform efforts and millions of dollars were dedicated to outreach programs.
And then, out of nowhere…Trump was elected.
In what can only be described as an outright repudiation of the “autopsy”, its conclusions, and the people who authored it, Trump built a movement dismissing the idea that Republicans, or America for that matter, needed any more non-white people for anything.
He believed that if enough white people banded together, they could reclaim the country and make America great again.
Much has been written about the non-college-educated working-class voters who fueled Trump’s rise and unlikely victory. Journalists visited diners in Ohio, analyzed the correlation between economic anxiety and racial resentment, and pundits from New York to Washington D.C., struggled to explain the unfathomable.
I won’t spend more time, energy, or digital ink on that debate. Suffice it to say, there are countless explanations to fit whatever belief system about why rural white voters supported Trump as they did and continue to.
Instead, I want to focus on the lesser-known story that began in the same election cycle - a story you probably haven’t heard.
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