Does Kamala Harris' Pivot Away From Immigration Reform Mark The End of Race Based Latino Politics?
In an election year marked by historic changes perhaps none is greater than that a Black woman has transformed the nature of racial politics in the Democratic Party. What does that mean for Latinos?
With the rise of the Obama Coalition came a new heterodoxy among political consultants - that race and racial identity were the primary lens through which non-white voters, particularly Latinos, viewed the world.
However, among seasoned political consultants, this assumption was known to be inherently incorrect. There was no evidence that Latinos primarily viewed their interests through a racial or ethnic lens. However, Democrats looking for a convenient way to define Latino voters, found an expedient issue: immigration.
Despite the lack of credible evidence that immigration, or immigration reform, was enough of an issue to drive higher Latino turnout, the Democratic Party and affiliated groups leaned into the narrative spun by pollsters and consultants who assured them that it was. As a result, in their desire to find relevance and secure contracts in a Democratic party and a willing media environment, a false consensus was set into motion.
Interestingly, it wasn’t just Democrats and a willing media that blindly bought into this misconception. The Republican National Committee, in its now-famous ‘autopsy’ conducted after the 2012 election, echoed a similar storyline. Stung by two consecutive national losses, Republicans were convinced – much like their opponents - that Democrats were on the verge of a permanent majority. In their analysis, Republicans correctly declared that they would continue to lose seats, power, and influence if they failed to secure a greater share of the Latino vote.
But time has shown that both parties were wrong about the reasons why Latinos vote the way they do.
Like other working-class voter blocks, Latinos have always been more of an economy-focused voter than an ethnic or racial identity voter. In the past 30 years of Latino voter polling, there has been no credible evidence that any other issue comes close to the economy or jobs.
Not immigration. Not racial identity-related issues. Not any other issue. Not one.
Despite this, both political parties, the media, and mainstream culture have invested tremendous resources into pushing the narrative that Latino voters, as minorities, should prioritize ethnic identity and immigration. This misguided focus has diverted significant attention away from the issues that Latinos care most about - economic opportunity and financial security.
Earlier this week, Kamala Harris spoke before the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute (CHCI) with a decidedly different message. A stark departure from the Democratic Party’s historical approach, Harris issued a stunning rebuke of the ethnic identity politics that had long dominated the Democratic Party’s strategy. Harris pivoted completely away from the failed and boundless idea that Latino voters would be motivated by immigration. Instead, she acknowledged the harsh economic realities facing Latinos, who, more than any other racial or ethnic group in the U.S., have borne the brunt of, especially among the working class.
Latino voters are increasingly aligning with economic populism and pocketbook issues, furthering themselves from the lazily constructed racial identity politics that pollsters, political consultants, and the media have imposed on them.
Make no mistake, the Democratic Party has been forever changed by this 180-degree turn towards prioritizing border security, a comprehensive national housing construction plan, and first-time down payment assistance. Incorporating a “No tax on tips” platform and an “opportunity economy” framing – borrowed from Obama’s opportunity zones, which themselves were a copy of Jack Kemp’s Enterprise Zones – marks the completion of the party’s transformation away from the politics of racial grievance and toward an aspirational, multi-ethnic, working-class message.
As I’ve publicly stated in my book, on the editorial pages of The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, and across Twitter nationwide - whichever party wins the hearts, minds, and votes of an aspirational, multi-ethnic working class will be the dominant party for a generation.
As recently as six months ago, I was convinced that party would be the Republican Party because I knew the same Latino advisers that steered the Democratic Party in the wrong direction were still on the payroll of the Biden campaign - but I no longer believe that.
Kamala Harris’s decisive rejection of these misplaced ideas strongly suggests that the Democrats have corrected their decade-long misstep. Harris’s bounce back to near 2020 levels of support proves she made the right move.
But was this Democratic comeback merely a reconsolidation of the Latino vote that elected Biden in 2020, despite its historically dismal performance, or is something else going on?
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