Could a Texas Voter Fraud investigation be a turning point for Lone Star Latino Voters?
The nations oldest Latino Civil Rights organization has just come under investigation for allegedly registering undocumented residents to vote - just a week after endorsing Kamala Harris for President
Every student of Latino politics and the history of Hispanic voting behavior invariably comes across the name of LULAC (League of Latin American Citizens). LULAC is the oldest Latino civil rights organization in the country and was founded in 1929 in large part to protect the rights of Latino citizens and oppose measures that sought to disenfranchise them from voting, lawfully engaging in civic behavior and for the most part just enjoy having the same rights as everyone else.
While a national organization, LULAC has focused much of its historic efforts in Texas (that’s not to say there hasn’t been major victories they’ve scored on behalf of Latinos in California, Arizona and elsewhere but Texas is, well…Texas). The energy and enthusiasm of the organization has ebbed and flowed with the politics of the time but LULAC has splashed on to the national scene for a couple of reasons that should give everyone a reason to pause and consider that things may be changing.
Just last week it was announced that for the first time in history, LULAC was endorsing a candidate for President. The national news was broken by two Latino journalists from CBS News: Nidia Cavazos, who is the only Latina journalist embedded in the Harris/Walz campaign and Fin Gomez, the Political Director of CBS news. (Never let it be said that representation doesn’t matter - there’s no way this story would have seen the light of day, let alone the country’s attention, if these two prominent Latino journalists hadn’t recognized the significance of the moment).
The LULAC endorsed candidate was Kamala Harris and while I was not surprised that a Latino organization would be taking a position of support for a Democrat in the race I was very surprised that LULAC was taking a position at all. LULAC has been fiercely and proudly non-partisan throughout its history and has advocated for greater Latino representation in both parties. More importantly, why now? The Trump threat to the Latino community has been present since 2016 and LULAC kept its powder dry. Something seemed odd about the announcement.
Like all things in Texas, the story got bigger.
Controversial Texas Attorney General Paxton launched an investigation shortly after the endorsement that could mark a turning point in Texas Latino politics. According to CBS reporting “Last week, Paxton's office announced in a press release that it was launching undercover operations and an investigation into reports alleging some organizations in Texas are unlawfully registering noncitizens to vote, in violation of state and federal law.”
Paxton’s office raided a number of Latino activists home, including some involved in LULC’s voter registration efforts. Among those whose houses were raided was “…Lidia Martinez, an 87-year-old who lives in San Antonio. Martinez has been a LULAC member for over 35 years and works to expand voter registration among seniors and veterans in South Texas.
She said that last Tuesday, there was a knock on her door in the morning, and she was greeted by nine officers in tactical gear and firearms who said they were executing a search warrant. Martinez was questioned for over three hours about her voter registration efforts in Texas.”
Paxton’s office has suggested that the raids culminated after a two year investigation that begun after reports of fraudulently registering undocumented immigrants to vote during the 2022 midterms.
One way or the other something big is going down in Texas. Somebody was doing something they should not have been doing somewhere and its clear from the reporting that we’re all about to found out the who, what, why and where. This could be either a catalyzing moment for the Latino community to rally around a direct threat - or a black eye that could set back our same community for decades.
A story this explosive leaves a lot to the imagination and plenty of empty canvas for partisans on both sides of the aisle to fill up their talking point tanks and fundraising email headlines, but beyond the predictable partisan behavior something more significant may be bubbling up: The changing aggressive attitude of Texas Republicans may be creating an ethnic voting bloc where it had just begun to dissipate.
Texas was once the model for Republican aspirations to build a national majority, but the compassionate conservative model embodied by former President George W Bush is a distant disappearing blur in the rearview mirror of Texas history now. Gone are the days when George W would happily go to the Rio Grande Valley and speak in halting Spanish with an aw-shucks grin and proudly declare that “Anyone willing to walk across 300 miles of desert to work for minimum wage was someone I want working in Texas”.
Todays Texas GOP is more defined by Governor Greg Abbott deporting undocumented immigrants by plane to Martha’s Vineyard to score cheap political points. And now an unseemly raid of Latino activists homes 70 days before an election by Paxton seems to be the Republican recipe for success. To be fair, we do not yet know the facts behind he raids. We do not know what evidence may be yielded from the homes of these LULAC activists. But what we do know is the optics aren’t good for a GOP on the upswing with Latino voters - the fastest growing segment of the electorate. I mean, for the love of the Alamo, the targets of the investigation were not the undocumented. They’re little old ladies.
It’s true Texas Hispanics have always been more conservative than Mexican Americans else where and have recently exhibited a strong border security streak - even supporting the aforementioned Governor Greg Abbotts over the top strategy of flying undocumented immigrants to blue states. In fact, its precisely these actions, many of which enjoyed majority support from Latino voters, that may have locked up Governor Abbotts re-election efforts in 2022. According to the reputable Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll headed up by former Texas legislator Jason Villalba, Texas voters polled right before the election showed:
66% of likely voters support Texas state and local law enforcement arresting people who cross the border with Mexico illegally, while 22% oppose.
60% of Texas likely voters support Texas deploying the Texas National Guard to patrol the U.S.-Mexico border, while 28% oppose.
60% of Texas likely voters support Texas sending the Texas DPS to patrol the U.S.- Mexico border, while 27% oppose.
57% of Texas likely voters support Texas building a border wall, while 34% oppose.
54% of Texas likely voters support Texas paying to send asylum seekers by bus to Chicago, New York City and Washington, D.C., while 31% oppose.
54% of Texas likely voters support Texas spending $1.5 billion every year on border security, while 32% oppose.
All six policies draw support from a majority of white voters. Three policies garner support from a majority of Hispanic voters and one policy gets support from a majority of Black voters.
These poll findings, and the consequent election results playing out with Abbott handily defeating Beto O’Rourke, again dashed the perpetual dreams of Democrats who envisioned a blue Texas complete with sugar plums dancing in their heads - stymied in large part by falling short among Hispanics.
So could these raids be different and why? Well to begin with the raids are on US citizens and unless there’s a smoking gun found in the evidence accumulated in the underwear drawers of abuelitas registering their friends at senior citizen events, I’m gonna go on a limb and say that could be a problem. We learned that Latino support for Trump didn’t really plummet until he started raiding businesses throughout the country with ICE enforcement officers going into workplaces and homes heading up to the 2018 midterms - Latinos responded with record breaking turnout that year, decisively casting ballots against Trump and the Republican Party and handing Nancy Pelosi a House majority.
Ultimately that’s what’s different about what’s happening in Texas - its not abstract, its real. Like the Dobbs decision on abortion rights - it’s all an academic discussion until it becomes existential. Democrats raising alarm bells for thirty years has numbed a lot of voters to the reality the Republicans are now advancing. It all seemed like nothing more that typical partisan talking points.
Until now.
In Texas, things just got real.